[truthseeker]

I contacted my dealer to see how much I would be able to trade my AWD Pro S with Gradient package (King's Red) with 10,000 miles for when I purchase a 2023 AWD Pro S Plus (Aurora Red), and after a few days, they came back with $36,000 - $37,000.

My 2022 AWD Pro S with Gradient package cost around $54,000. When I subtract $7500, my net becomes $46,500 (tax excluded). If I get $37,000 for it from the dealer and apply it to the 2023 ID.4 Pro S Plus price ($55,650), I will have to come up with $18,650 to pay the difference (taxes excluded). If I can get $7500 another tax credit for 2023, my net out of pocket would be $11,150 (taxes excluded).

What would I get for $11,150? Say the 2023 ID.4 Pro S Plus arrives by March 1, 2023 (so that I can harvest a full $7,500 tax credit for 2023). I will get 7 extra months of warranty (I've had my 2022 ID.4 since July 30, 2022), I will get 7 more months of 30-minute free EA sessions, I will get 360-view camera, self-parking, automatic lane change when on Travel Assist, rear climate, rear heated seats, and American-style central console. Is it worth $11,150? I'd say it's worth $3,500 - $4,000 to me, but it's not worth $11,150.

By the way, the 7-month depreciation on the ID.4 is a staggering 20.6% (11,150/54,000*100). Or, if I calculate it in a different way (without factoring in the trade-in or the tax credits), it's 31.5% ($54,000 - $37,000 = $17,000; $17,000/$54,000*100%). I don't really know exactly how to calculate the depreciation in this case, but the true depreciation is probably somewhere between 20% and 32% in 7 months.

Let me calculate a per-mile depreciation (LOL):
Method 1: $11,150/10,000 miles = $1.12/mile
Method 2: $17,000/10,000 miles = $1.70/mile.

Let's meet in the middle and say, my ID.4 has been losing $1.40 per mile in value over the course of last 6 months.

My finger is reaching for the mouse button to click on "Cancel reservation".

I'm still waiting on Tesla to give me a trade-in value on my low-mileage late 2021 Model Y.

 

[truthseeker]

I've just checked my locked order, and the delivery dates have changed (since yesterday) from December 1, 2022 - February 1, 2023 to May 2023 - Jun 2023. The reservation was placed around August 8, 2022 and the order was locked around October 18, 2022.

The IRS guidance on the high-voltage battery will be out by then, so the federal tax credit will be reduced to either $3,750 (best case scenario) or $0 (worst-case scenario). This makes my out-of-pocket to replace my 2022 ID.4 with the similar 2023 ID.4 either $14,900 or $18,150. This is just a waste of money.

So, I am canceling the 2023 reservation now.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

I contacted my dealer to see how much I would be able to trade my AWD Pro S with Gradient package (King's Red) with 10,000 miles for when I purchase a 2023 AWD Pro S Plus (Aurora Red), and after a few days, they came back with $36,000 - $37,000.

My 2022 AWD Pro S with Gradient package cost around $54,000. When I subtract $7500, my net becomes $46,500 (tax excluded). If I get $37,000 for it from the dealer and apply it to the 2023 ID.4 Pro S Plus price ($55,650), I will have to come up with $18,650 to pay the difference (taxes excluded). If I can get $7500 another tax credit for 2023, my net out of pocket would be $11,150 (taxes excluded).

What would I get for $11,150? Say the 2023 ID.4 Pro S Plus arrives by March 1, 2023 (so that I can harvest a full $7,500 tax credit for 2023). I will get 7 extra months of warranty (I've had my 2022 ID.4 since July 30, 2022), I will get 7 more months of 30-minute free EA sessions, I will get 360-view camera, self-parking, automatic lane change when on Travel Assist, rear climate, rear heated seats, and American-style central console. Is it worth $11,150? I'd say it's worth $3,500 - $4,000 to me, but it's not worth $11,150.

By the way, the 7-month depreciation on the ID.4 is a staggering 20.6% (11,150/54,000*100). Or, if I calculate it in a different way (without factoring in the trade-in or the tax credits), it's 31.5% ($54,000 - $37,000 = $17,000; $17,000/$54,000*100%). I don't really know exactly how to calculate the depreciation in this case, but the true depreciation is probably somewhere between 20% and 32% in 7 months.

Let me calculate a per-mile depreciation (LOL):
Method 1: $11,150/10,000 miles = $1.12/mile
Method 2: $17,000/10,000 miles = $1.70/mile.

Let's meet in the middle and say, my ID.4 has been losing $1.40 per mile in value over the course of last 6 months.

My finger is reaching for the mouse button to click on "Cancel reservation".

I'm still waiting on Tesla to give me a trade-in value on my low-mileage late 2021 Model Y.

Tesla will not give fixed Trade in value until you are 21 days from actually getting your Tesla vehicle.
What you will receive is price 29-37k example. Be ready to loose if you are using Tesla for trade-in.

 

[Atlant]

I contacted my dealer to see how much I would be able to trade my AWD Pro S with Gradient package (King's Red) with 10,000 miles for when I purchase a 2023 AWD Pro S Plus (Aurora Red), and after a few days, they came back with $36,000 - $37,000.

My 2022 AWD Pro S with Gradient package cost around $54,000. When I subtract $7500, my net becomes $46,500 (tax excluded). If I get $37,000 for it from the dealer and apply it to the 2023 ID.4 Pro S Plus price ($55,650), I will have to come up with $18,650 to pay the difference (taxes excluded). If I can get $7500 another tax credit for 2023, my net out of pocket would be $11,150 (taxes excluded).

What would I get for $11,150? Say the 2023 ID.4 Pro S Plus arrives by March 1, 2023 (so that I can harvest a full $7,500 tax credit for 2023). I will get 7 extra months of warranty (I've had my 2022 ID.4 since July 30, 2022), I will get 7 more months of 30-minute free EA sessions, I will get 360-view camera, self-parking, automatic lane change when on Travel Assist, rear climate, rear heated seats, and American-style central console. Is it worth $11,150? I'd say it's worth $3,500 - $4,000 to me, but it's not worth $11,150.

By the way, the 7-month depreciation on the ID.4 is a staggering 20.6% (11,150/54,000*100). Or, if I calculate it in a different way (without factoring in the trade-in or the tax credits), it's 31.5% ($54,000 - $37,000 = $17,000; $17,000/$54,000*100%). I don't really know exactly how to calculate the depreciation in this case, but the true depreciation is probably somewhere between 20% and 32% in 7 months.

Let me calculate a per-mile depreciation (LOL):
Method 1: $11,150/10,000 miles = $1.12/mile
Method 2: $17,000/10,000 miles = $1.70/mile.

Let's meet in the middle and say, my ID.4 has been losing $1.40 per mile in value over the course of last 6 months.

My finger is reaching for the mouse button to click on "Cancel reservation".

I'm still waiting on Tesla to give me a trade-in value on my low-mileage late 2021 Model Y.

You can't actually buy a Pro S Plus, can you? Aren't they are still vaporware?

 

[truthseeker]

Tesla will not give fixed Trade in value until you are 21 days from actually getting your Tesla vehicle.
What you will receive is price 29-37k example. Be ready to loose if you are using Tesla for trade-in.

I am 21 days within getting a 2023 Tesla Model Y. If the trade in value is not good on my 2021 Model Y, I will keep mine and replace its suspension with unplugged performance.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

I am 21 days within getting a 2023 Tesla Model Y. If the trade in value is not good on my 2021 Model Y, I will keep mine and replace its suspension with unplugged performance.

I have 2023 Y long range, stock wheels, rental and I'm getting about 270 miles on full charge if going 70 MPH ( i do drive always with clima set on auto 74°F). Hitting Tesla EPA range is impossible even with 65 MPH speed.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

I am 21 days within getting a 2023 Tesla Model Y. If the trade in value is not good on my 2021 Model Y, I will keep mine and replace its suspension with unplugged performance.

Why are you going with 2023 Y
They have axed.... Radar and proximity sensors... this would be downgrade from 2021 Y. And if you are after better heat pump... i would wait for 2024 Model ( and possibly return of HD Radar and additional camera sensors for blind-spot monitoring at intersections)

 

[truthseeker]

I have 2023 Y long range, stock wheels, rental and I'm getting about 270 miles on full charge if going 70 MPH ( i do drive always with clima set on auto 74°F). Hitting Tesla EPA range is impossible even with 65 MPH speed.

What’s the ambient temperature? I know you can’t hit 330 miles, but it still gets a much better range than the ID.4 in the same conditions.

 

[truthseeker]

Why are you going with 2023 Y
They have axed.... Radar and proximity sensors... this would be downgrade from 2021 Y. And if you are after better heat pump... i would wait for 2024 Model ( and possibly return of HD Radar and additional camera sensors for blind-spot monitoring at intersections)

I don’t have a radar in my late 2021 Model Y. The radar was removed a few months before my late 2021 Model Y was manufactured. I do have the proximity sensors. I know they removed them in the 2023 Model Y - I stopped by the showroom yesterday and made sure that was the case. The Tesla sales people didn’t even know the 2023 Model Y has no proximity sensors, but the one inside the show room had no proximity sensors in its bumpers.

I scheduled a test drive for next week. If the 2023 doesn’t ride any better then my 2021, I will keep my 2021 Model Y. I’m hoping that the suspension in the 2023 Model Y is much improved compared to my 2021.

It’s looking more and more like I will be keeping both of my EVs for a while.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

What’s the ambient temperature? I know you can’t hit 330 miles, but it still gets a much better range than the ID.4 in the same conditions.

At 70 MPH temperature average 40-60°F 270-280 miles
At 65 MPH just tested going from San Diego to Sacramento.... 293 miles on full charge.
Going across I70 Colorado to Las Vegas 20-46°F i was in 240-250 range going entire trip at 68 MPH...

 

[truthseeker]

At 70 MPH temperature average 40-60°F 270-280 miles
At 65 MPH just tested going from San Diego to Sacramento.... 293 miles on full charge.
Going across I70 Colorado to Las Vegas 20-46°F i was in 240-250 range going entire trip at 68 MPH...

It’s still 50 miles better on 100% SOC than the ID.4.

How is the suspension in the 2023 Model Y?

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

I don’t have a radar in my late 2021 Model Y. The radar was removed a few months before it was manufactured. I do have the proximity sensors. I know they removed them in the 2023 Model Y - I stopped by the showroom yesterday and made sure that was the case. The Tesla sales people didn’t even know the 2023 Model Y has no proximity sensors, but the one inside the show room had no proximity sensors in its bumpers.

I scheduled a test drive for next week. If doesn’t ride any better than mine, I will keep my 2021 Model Y.

It’s looking more and more like I will be keeping both of my EVs for a while.

It is not worth for suspension upgrade alone to go with new model.... There is in the work new Tesla vision cameras and returning some hardware that was axed before. New Heat pump revision alone is worth waiting for ( I'm actually in good relationship with head engineer from Tesla)... there will be also improvements in hub bearings and other key components to improve efficiency for 2024 Model Y. And you will most likely have better resale value with battery pack that can be repaired than structural pack that cannot be repaired.
And this will give Tesla enough time to get all issues that are facing now with 4680 cells.
I'm not against structural pack.... if they offer extended warranty insurances. Because there is way less losses from 900+ cells with fat cells than packs will 2170 small cells.

 

[truthseeker]

It is not worth for suspension upgrade alone to go with new model.... There is in the work new Tesla vision cameras and returning some hardware that was axed before. New Heat pump revision alone is worth waiting for ( I'm actually in good relationship with head engineer from Tesla)... there will be also improvements in hub bearings and other key components to improve efficiency for 2024 Model Y. And you will most likely have better resale value with battery pack that can be repaired than structural pack that cannot be repaired.
And this will give Tesla enough time to get all issues that are facing now with 4680 cells.
I'm not against structural pack.... if they offer extended warranty insurances. Because there is way less losses from 900+ cells with fat cells than packs will 2170 small cells.

Yeah, it’s a tossup. I still want to test-drive the 2023 Model Y and get an estimate from Tesla. If I can break even (factoring in the $7500 credit), I may get the 2023 one. If I can’t, I will keep my 2021.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

It’s still 50 miles better on 100% SOC than the ID.4.

How is the suspension in the 2023 Model Y?

I have not had chance to drive 2021 Model Y... i find it OK... on scale 1-5 from Tesla 3 LR ... probably 2.5 more stiff suspension... but not something that makes feel you are driving vehicle made for Nürburgring . I doo have 500+ lbs of equipment with me all the time in the vehicle

 

[truthseeker]

I just got an offer from Tesla for my late 2021 (delivered in late October 2021) Model Y AWD LR (standard wheels, white) with 1,600 miles on odometer in mint condition. The offer is $33,000. And I thought the offer on the ID.4 was bad!

Obviously, I am keeping my 2021 and canceling my purchase of the 2023 Model Y (losing a $250 deposit).

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

I just got an offer from Tesla for my late 2021 (delivered in late October 2021) Model Y AWD LR (standard wheels, white) with 1,600 miles on odometer in mint condition. The offer is $33,000. And I thought the offer on the ID.4 was bad!

Obviously, I am keeping my 2021 and canceling my purchase of the 2023 Model Y (losing a $250 deposit).

That is really low offer....
I guess you will have chance to see new battery pack BMS for LFP chemistry that will be able to make accurate measurements down to 0.035% and existing BMS they are using on LFP and NMC chemistry are not accurate enough for LFP chemistry.
New BMS revision will be much less affected by temperature for accurate calculations ( temperature also affects accuracy if BMS board is exposed to different temperatures)
LFP needs accuracy for cells voltage down to 1mV besides.... other key factors like precise measurements of current across shunt ( temperature compensation) and etc.
New BMS revision from Tesla will help NMC chemistry slightly, but LFP will definitely have big impact between 28%-73% where 1 mV accuracy has big impact on measuring LFP SOC accurately ( eliminate Tesla requirement to charge 100% LFP chemistry to improve hardware limitations with existing BMS SOC).
Irrelevant what Tesla website suggests.... charging LFP chemistry 100% SOC will affect SOH similarly to NMC chemistry...but LFP will mask it because of way more cycles vs NMC chemistry.
Feel free to challenge my statement vs what Tesla suggests for LFP chemistry.
Im here to provide answers.

 

[AWD Or Nothing]

I effectively did the same transaction you are proposing at the end of December, moved from a '21 to a '23, at a cost of $4k. Felt worth it to me at that price to reset the ODO and get all the bugs fixed. I think prices have dropped quite a bit since then and so the financials are harder to justify the upgrade. Still, I bet you can do a bit better on the trade.

 

[jcohnc]

Not surprising given the current market. And of course Tesla's massive price drops. Tesla
depreciation is also huge right now.

 

[voxel]

EV depreciation is where I expected it to be (but sooner than I imagined) - bad. Historically around 50% over three years.

Polestar 2s have depreciated 30-35% in a year. You can thank one of car rental agencies for dumping a bunch into the market. I was able to rent a fully loaded P2 ($68K window sticker) for a week for $190 because the rental agency said nobody wanted them. Best handling EV I’ve driven I have to say and I’ve basically test driven almost everything lol.

My 4 month old 22 Mach-E has depreciated almost 20% even though the 23s have increased in price by $9K. I can buy lightly used EV6s and Ioniq 5s for 10-15% off new prices because there are many EV6s and Ioniq 5s in Florida available at MSRP now

My other EV, BMW i4, is now selling at wholesale for 20-25% below MSRP. I kinda expected that because it is a BMW and I got an amazing deal on it.

You can even buy barely used Rivian R1Ts at current MSRP or less. The whole market has completely cooled for all EVs.

 

[HL1315]

EV depreciation is where I expected it to be (but sooner than I imagined) - bad. Historically around 50% over three years.

Polestar 2s have depreciated 30-35% in a year. You can thank one of car rental agencies for dumping a bunch into the market. I was able to rent a fully loaded P2 ($68K window sticker) for a week for $190 because the rental agency said nobody wanted them. Best handling EV I’ve driven I have to say and I’ve basically test driven almost everything lol.

My 4 month old 22 Mach-E has depreciated almost 20% even though the 23s have increased in price by $9K. I can buy lightly used EV6s and Ioniq 5s for 10-15% off new prices because there are many EV6s and Ioniq 5s in Florida available at MSRP now

My other EV, BMW i4, is now selling at wholesale for 20-25% below MSRP. I kinda expected that because it is a BMW and I got an amazing deal on it.

You can even buy barely used Rivian R1Ts at current MSRP or less. The whole market has completely cooled for all EVs.

Yeah, it's happening really fast. I've even seen a few 2023 ID.4s listed below MSRP now. In general this is great news for the used EV market. Pretty soon there could even be decent choices that qualify for the new $4000 tax credit on used EVs (need to be less than $25000).