I'm firmly in the no regrets camp. Love the car as detailed in this
thread.
As for depreciation here's my thoughts. I've been looking hard at the EV new and used market since 2019 and what I've found is the biggest depreciation is on the smaller range vehicles ( >150 miles). I picked up used 2017 Kia Soul EV+ w/ only 27k miles for $12k w/ a new sticker of $38k. Yuck (but good for me!).
But when you look at the next generation of longer range EVs that came out in 2019 - Kona EV and Niro EV and Bolt - you'll see a more reasonable depreciation. The Bolt is the worse of those three but it is really very very small car and I think that limits its resale market. Chevy has also driven down the prices by heavily discounting their new cars prior to launching their updated version this year.
I'm betting the ID 4 will do fairly well on this front b/c I think it will be a popular and well respected car that even in 3 to 5 years will meet many people's needs even if it's not the latest and greatest. The size, range and features far outclass anything else in this price range.
As others have said, you have to account for the tax rebates in estimating the future value. With $7500 in fed and various states going up to $5k I'm guess about a $9k hit there so that takes my $45k car to $36k and then in three years I can't imagine it will be worth less than $25k for a premium car with these features and functions. That's better than the residual lease value VW is guessing.
So yeah, it's a bet but I definitely can see a path where depreciation isn't below normal for a new car and just maybe will do better as the EV market continues to grow and in 3 to 5 years people will be more ready to jump in but might want to go used as a first EV.
Personally, I think we'll own this car for a long time.