[mmmzon]

Since I like spreadsheets and numbers are my thing ... I got the following one going, trying to compare cost of ownership for ID.4 (fully loaded, as quoted)

ID.4 cost of ownership

Model 3 vs BMW 230i Paul Nadig,Allowing access to this sheet, even just certain cells, created quite a mess. If you would like to use the sheet, simply copy/duplicate it for your own private use. Thank you. Car,Tesla Model 3 SR+,BMW 230i,Sources Purchase Price,$38,990,$35,300,$35,300,20000,*Vari...

docs.google.com

Feel free to poke and edit as needed. I did account for such mundane things as wall charger costs, insurance, regular planned maintenance costs (all average values for ICE options I included), and fuel costs.

 

[TT97]

Since I like spreadsheets and numbers are my thing ... I got the following one going, trying to compare cost of ownership for ID.4 (fully loaded, as quoted)

ID.4 cost of ownership

Model 3 vs BMW 230i Paul Nadig,Allowing access to this sheet, even just certain cells, created quite a mess. If you would like to use the sheet, simply copy/duplicate it for your own private use. Thank you. Car,Tesla Model 3 SR+,BMW 230i,Sources Purchase Price,$38,990,$35,300,$35,300,20000,*Vari...

docs.google.com

Feel free to poke and edit as needed. I did account for such mundane things as wall charger costs, insurance, regular planned maintenance costs (all average values for ICE options I included), and fuel costs.

Looks good. A few things. If you are adding the options to the ID.4, you should do the same for the Tiguan (at a minimum, compare AWD to AWD). Don't forget Destination Charges (and taxes & fees too if you want/have them). Also, for the 5-yr TCO, you should only use the depreciated amount, not the total purchase price of the car.

 

[ted99]

Pretty good illustration of a point I made earlier. Today, the lowest cost option is a mid-range ICE. The difference would be even more pronounced if one could crystal ball the residual value. I expect the residual value of the Tiguan SE to be more than that of the ID.4 in 3 years. BUT, I am sure that those of us seriously considering the ID.4 are doing so for more reasons than just cost-effectiveness.

 

[mmmzon]

I tried to play with residual value at the end of 5 years' period but ... it is anybody's guess what the value would be at the end of that period, especially given how quickly the market changes these days. It is even less clear what the value of ID.4 would be at the end of 5 years. I asked for lease guesstimates from VW to see what residual value they'd assume on 60 months' long lease but that is still coming.

I also did not know what value to use for maintenance costs on ID.4 over 5 years. I assume there will be some maintenance that will have to be paid out of pocket, and 1200 / 5 years seems very conservative.

Now, I did not include tire costs but it is not clear whether ID.4 will need any special ones that might be more expensive than ones used for ICE.

The one thing that became clear to me is that getting an EV is not going to save a lot of money, unless gas prices go really up (around 6.00 / gallon will do it) or ICE maintenance costs increase dramatically due to parts' shortage or excessive labor costs. Otherwise, purchase of an EV cannot be clearly justified just by pure monetary savings. Even dropping electricity cost to zero (charging from already existing solar panels or using 3 years of free charging that is supposed to come with the car), the difference is minor (2,900$ over 5 years). My conclusion is that most savings will be ones that cannot be easily accounted for, like ICE engine failures out of warranty period, expensive transmission replacements out of warranty, etc., something that EV will be pretty much immune to. There is tradeoff, though, again, impossible to capture statistically, that has to do with battery life cycle and what happens when and if it needs to be replaced.

 

[mmmzon]

Looks good. A few things. If you are adding the options to the ID.4, you should do the same for the Tiguan (at a minimum, compare AWD to AWD).

VW Tiguan SEL Premium R-Line is AWD so I think it is captured. "Under the hood, the 2020 Volkswagen Tiguan SEL Premium R-Line packs a turbocharged 2.0-liter TSI I-4 engine making 184 horsepower and 221 lb-ft of torque. The four is mated to an eight-speed automatic transmission with 4Motion all-wheel drive."

I was gunning for low end and high end of Tiguan which seems to be the size-wise comparable VW offering with ICE. I will likely work on adding Audi Q5 just for fun as well, mostly like 2020 model since there is more data for it at this time.

Don't forget Destination Charges (and taxes & fees too if you want/have them)

That is - unfortunately - area-dependent but I assume these will be fixed and the same for EV and ICE if purchased at the same location. Local tax structure does not seem to properly reflect the EV and any incentives, though I know that local registration tax is EV preferential (guestimate for ID.4 was at 180 / year versus 360 for Tiguan 2021 model).

Also, for the 5-yr TCO, you should only use the depreciated amount, not the total purchase price of the car.

Right now it is maintenance cost, energy cost, charger, insurance, as well as price of the car after incentives less any residual value. I think it is more realistic since that is what one has to shell out to have the car running and maintained at the end of the period.

 

[ixlr08]

Interesting numbers, it is going to be different for everybody. My cost for wall charger and install is about 1/3 what you guessed, but very realistic for others. My electric costs are 30% higher. What did you use to come up with the maintenance costs for the ID? Although I suspect you are not far off there.

 

[mmmzon]

As far as wall charger goes, I got a quote from Electrify America for their class 2 wall charger, installation, etc. Unfortunately, I cannot do that myself, since I am at a limit of power draw and need to rebuilt my entry fuse box and likely run new lines into garage, which does require inspection to make sure it is up to code. If there are alternatives I missed, let me know

The electric cost is from my last invoice and that is on-demand plan with the local utility, since I am already using solar panels. The average national cost of electricity does not seem to be far off, though.

Maintenance cost estimate was taken from one of ID.3 articles (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/1...en-golf-5-year-cost-of-ownership-comparisons/). Given that the platform is the same, I do not expect major change in such costs and even that seems to be on the high side, given some estimates for Tesla EVs and their maintenance costs over time. I did bump the value up a bit, since ID.4 is bigger than ID.3, though

 

[ixlr08]

Wall charger is one cost area where I can cheat. I can install it myself and where I live there is no need to get permits or inspections. I think the thread here on WC install costs are running between $800-$1200 depending on complications.
Our electric rates tend to be higher than average. I'm debating adding solar panels to help, but then again we are planning on moving in less than 5 years so I don't think it is worth while if we are moving. It doesn't add much value to the house.
The numbers I have seen for Tesla's are all over the map, then again so is their quality. I would be pleasantly surprised if $1200 is the cost of maintenance for 5 years on the ID, but I also don't think it is unrealistic. A case of plan high and come in low.

 

[JTL]

VW Tiguan SEL Premium R-Line is AWD so I think it is captured. "Under the hood, the 2020 Volkswagen Tiguan SEL Premium R-Line packs a turbocharged 2.0-liter TSI I-4 engine making 184 horsepower and 221 lb-ft of torque. The four is mated to an eight-speed automatic transmission with 4Motion all-wheel drive."

I was gunning for low end and high end of Tiguan which seems to be the size-wise comparable VW offering with ICE. I will likely work on adding Audi Q5 just for fun as well, mostly like 2020 model since there is more data for it at this time.



That is - unfortunately - area-dependent but I assume these will be fixed and the same for EV and ICE if purchased at the same location. Local tax structure does not seem to properly reflect the EV and any incentives, though I know that local registration tax is EV preferential (guestimate for ID.4 was at 180 / year versus 360 for Tiguan 2021 model).



Right now it is maintenance cost, energy cost, charger, insurance, as well as price of the car after incentives less any residual value. I think it is more realistic since that is what one has to shell out to have the car running and maintained at the end of the period.

As far as wall charger goes, I got a quote from Electrify America for their class 2 wall charger, installation, etc. Unfortunately, I cannot do that myself, since I am at a limit of power draw and need to rebuilt my entry fuse box and likely run new lines into garage, which does require inspection to make sure it is up to code. If there are alternatives I missed, let me know

The electric cost is from my last invoice and that is on-demand plan with the local utility, since I am already using solar panels. The average national cost of electricity does not seem to be far off, though.

Maintenance cost estimate was taken from one of ID.3 articles. Given that the platform is the same, I do not expect major change in such costs and even that seems to be on the high side, given some estimates for Tesla EVs and their maintenance costs over time.

I have a 2014 CX5 that will be 8 years old next month but is very low mileage. I have all of my records so I did a cost analysis. Over 8 years and allowing for a residual price today of $14000 my annual cost was about $3000 excluding gas. So I drove the car for 8 years for $24K with taxes, maintenance, insurance included. I don't envision a ID4 doing that. If I had to take a WAG at it I think it will lose over 50% of its original cost after 3 years. The big thing is going to be how the SS batteries affect the value of the older tech.

 

[mmmzon]

I think the thread here on WC install costs are running between $800-$1200 depending on complications.

The cost I included is the installation and wall charger itself, so I smack in the middle of that range. Again, that was the quote I received from an installer that will get all permits filed, inspections done, etc. so I am sure there is also convenience factor included. I estimated 600$ total cost if I were to do it myself and about 300$ in inspection and certification costs, so it almost makes no sense to hassle myself.

I'm debating adding solar panels to help, but then again we are planning on moving in less than 5 years so I don't think it is worth while if we are moving. It doesn't add much value to the house.

In my case, adding 15k worth of solar panels added about 50k to property value so it was worth it if I consider is selling. I bought them, not leased, which is always (I am told) a good reason for local buyers to consider the given property. It is, however, market-specific so what worked for me, might not work for you. On added note, this last year (2020) I am pretty much running at net zero energy draw from the grid, with summer months providing substantial surplus to be used as credits over winter months.

I don't envision a ID4 doing that. If I had to take a WAG at it I think it will lose over 50% of its original cost after 3 years. The big thing is going to be how the SS batteries affect the value of the older tech.

Right now I am assuming 15k resale value at year 5 marker, which is steep depreciation from 50k new car price. It is also more or less in line with expected ID.3 resale value as quoted by VW. Not trying to massage the values too much, since it is just a number's game for me right now to make it as close to real as possible, but the outcome is for others to look at and consider

I have a 2014 CX5 that will be 8 years old next month but is very low mileage. I have all of my records so I did a cost analysis. Over 8 years and allowing for a residual price today of $14000 my annual cost was about $3000 excluding gas. So I drove the car for 8 years for $24K with taxes, maintenance, insurance included.

Impressive, I will need to see what my Q5 has cost me to date. I keep track of all expenses for now so it should be easy enough

 

[ted99]

A big factor in resale is availability of Fed Tax Credits. Of late, I have noticed that Tesla M-3 has been retaining a lot of it's cost. Some of that is "Tesla Aura", but some is that one cannot get a TC on a new Tesla, anymore. If a TC is available, it will knock the resale down a lot because one is competing with a new vehicle costing $7500 less. If the TC are "gone", the base is back to MSRP. Anyone know the effect of this on a used Bolt? But, there certainly is no aura for a Bolt. If Biden gets GM and Tesla TC restoration and/or extended sales numbers above 200K for everyone, it will affect resale for a long time. The people that make out are those that got a full TC just before they expired. VW is probably going to have them through 2021 and into half of 2022 with current law. The sweet spot for ID.4 will likely be in early 2022 when TN is producing and with the expected MSRP reduction (with de-contenting?) from USA production. But--I'm betting that the Fed TC will be extended, but perhaps with a cap on either income and/or MSRP, as is the case for a lot of State credits. There are so many uncertainties that one cannot really make a rational financial decision in the next 6 months. If your decision is a "go", it'll be on other than financial factors. It does not seem like Tesla needs the TC to sell vehicles. Nissan is a lot closer to the 200K limit for TC than VW, so if you are looking that way act quickly. Audi is still a long way away, but they have added a bunch of PHEV's to their lineup that will add toward the 200K quicker than VW, who has none. I think changes to the Fed TC are not certain one way or the other, but I would bet that if there are, they will include MSRP limitations or income limitations, or both.

 

[mmmzon]

I added two Q5 models for reference. Apart from that Ill keep the sheet updated as new information becomes available.

 

[mmmzon]

Curious information. It seems that the EC price (not that we care, just adding it for context) is still deflated. VW apparently cuts down on dealership margins to get the price down. The article focuses on Germany (?) but I am sure the same will happen here in US.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/a-volkswagen-dealer-is-making-10-less-profit-selling-an-id-4-instead-of-fossil-fuel-vehicle-cleantechnica-exclusive/

 

[TT97]

Curious information. It seems that the EC price (not that we care, just adding it for context) is still deflated. VW apparently cuts down on dealership margins to get the price down. The article focuses on Germany (?) but I am sure the same will happen here in US.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/a-volkswagen-dealer-is-making-10-less-profit-selling-an-id-4-instead-of-fossil-fuel-vehicle-cleantechnica-exclusive/

The one thing I know about business is the best way to incentivize salesman is to cut their commissions! At least they earn less service profit so their bosses will prefer to sell them over ICE cars.

 

[mmmzon]

That seems to be the opposite of what is happening in Germany now

 

[RRV22]

Only about 3-5% of the US car buying public own/lease an EV...that ought to tell you something about how hot and desirable the EV is right now. When I visit my local VW dealership, the sales people want to sell you a Tiquan, a Jetta, or an Atlas...they don't say much about an ID4. The business manager complains about the $250,000 or so the dealership has to spend for level 2 charging installation. Their service dept. is not enthusiastic at all. Just sayin...

 

[mmmzon]

Consider all the maintenance that will be going away with EVs. No oil changes, no transmission work, etc. Most repairs will be limited to hooking the car to the computer and letting automation take over. Not a business model I see working for dealerships long term.

 

[JTL]

Only about 3-5% of the US car buying public own/lease an EV...that ought to tell you something about how hot and desirable the EV is right now. When I visit my local VW dealership, the sales people want to sell you a Tiquan, a Jetta, or an Atlas...they don't say much about an ID4. The business manager complains about the $250,000 or so the dealership has to spend for level 2 charging installation. Their service dept. is not enthusiastic at all. Just sayin...

I think EV's in the U.S. are less than 2% of all cars on the road.

 

[JTL]

Consider all the maintenance that will be going away with EVs. No oil changes, no transmission work, etc. Most repairs will be limited to hooking the car to the computer and letting automation take over. Not a business model I see working for dealerships long term.

I used to finance dealerships and floor plan their new car inventory. It was a long time ago but back then new car sales were the smallest profit center and everything in a dealership was a profit center. Parts department sold parts to the service department and the paint shop charged the service department for repairs. Used car department was charged for repairs by the service department and so on. Anyway service was the biggest profit center followed by used cars and parts. Another thing everyone in the dealership except for administration people were either on a straight commission or a very large part of the their income was incentive based. Mechanics were paid based on the book hourly rate for the task, if they beat what the book said they shared in the "extra" profit. Service writers were 100% commission as were sales people.

 

[PGilly]

I get that some people like to get a new car every 3-5 years, but has anyone considered the value of the ID4 beyond resale? Does the fact that the car will receive some updates over the years of ownership increase the likelihood of keeping the car for more years? Outside of future ID4s having a few more bells and whistles, are some of you more likely to keep the car longer than usual?