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Dealer Supply of ID.4s already increasing and sales stalling. Model 3s suddenly available in October! [speculation]

33095 Views 331 Replies 70 Participants Last post by  Nai3t
Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?
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Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?
Theoretically, yes, you could delay putting it in service until after 1/1. The challenge will be if it is not a base standard model 3 it won't qualify - the higher trims exceed the $55,000 cap for cars. Also, I've read the battery cells for the model 3s come from China, so maybe no Half Credit there either. I'd say the odds are stacked against you.

Dave
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Theoretically, yes, you could delay putting it in service until after 1/1. The challenge will be if it is not a base standard model 3 it won't qualify - the higher trims exceed the $55,000 cap for cars. Also, I've read the battery cells for the model 3s come from China, so maybe no Half Credit there either. I'd say the odds are stacked against you.

Dave
the first $3750 is from battery requirement which is 40% minerals should come from US free trade partners and unless clarified or some meaningful administrative direction,almost none will qualify
the second $3750 requirement is battery manufactured in US OR assembled in US. Even though Model 3 RWD battery is made in china by CATL but battery pack is assembled in california and car window sticker says battery from US.
so unless Tesla clarifies or if pack is assembled in US then technically this version should qualify atleast $3750
we should be knowing more details soon
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the first $3750 is from battery requirement which is 40% minerals should come from US free trade partners and unless clarified or some meaningful administrative direction,almost none will qualify
the second $3750 requirement is battery manufactured in US OR assembled in US. Even though Model 3 RWD battery is made in china by CATL but battery pack is assembled in california and car window sticker says battery from US.
so unless Tesla clarifies or if pack is assembled in US then technically this version should qualify atleast $3750
we should be knowing more details soon
Agreed, we shall see on the battery tests, but I wouldn't bet money on any more than a half credit for either the ID.4 or the Tesla model 3. There likely won't be any credits at all on anything beyond the standard range base trim model 3 because of the vehicle price restriction

The sticky part is that it doesn't say the battery is manufactured or assembled in the right place - it says 50% of the battery components are manufactured or assembled in the right place. As one example, I'm not sure how it will be interpreted if the cells are manufactured and assembled in China, then shipped to the US to be assembled into a finished battery.

Dave
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Agreed, we shall see on the battery tests, but I wouldn't bet money on any more than a half credit for either the ID.4 or the Tesla model 3. There likely won't be any credits at all on anything beyond the standard range base trim model 3 because of the vehicle price restriction

The sticky part is that it doesn't say the battery is manufactured or assembled in the right place - it says 50% of the battery components are manufactured or assembled in the right place. As one example, I'm not sure how it will be interpreted if the cells are manufactured and assembled in China, then shipped to the US to be assembled into a finished battery.

Dave
agreed.. lot of interpretations.. i do see lot o folks who are expecting model 3 RWD around nov/dec are thinking to take after Jan 1... also they are worried and Tesla may cancel the orders. ohh boy.. one heck of law that was just rolled out into many lives
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2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers
Not sure this is true. Might be some “In-Transit” that are already sold that show up on Cars.com and dealer web sites, but I doubt they are sitting on the lots in large numbers un-sold. Certainly have not shown up in any of my searches.
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Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers.
Where? My local dealer has just 1 out of 35 available to sell - which they are still selling for 5K markup. They just need one guy to pony up. Could change in a couple of months.
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I'm not seeing any supply yet... but let's keep on eye on this. The tesla model 3 thing is interesting, that's for sure.
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Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?
Supply not sitting anywhere I have seen and many people have tried that take before and come up empty. Where is the proof? It sure isn’t dealer sites with cars listed for sale as those are the reservations. Don’t believe me? Call them. As far as Tesla goes I doubt anyone here cares or we would be on the Tesla site. I personally won’t pay more for a car just because I like Elon Musk’s takes on what the “man on the street” really cares about. He is as detached from me as Howard Hughes was before him. Money can’t buy brains.
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2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers.
I looked at my local dealer and they have 16 listed in inventory. 15 are reserved (and some of those still in transit) and one actually showed up as “available” with sale already pending.
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None yet on lots here in central Florida either. I can’t speak to Tesla as they rarely have cars on a lot here even in good times. And Tesla hasn’t been eligible for the federal rebate now for some time, so I doubt that is impacting purchases for them.

There was that article going around saying VW had months of inventory but it was never substantiated that I saw. And I think most of us figured it was probably in China if such a condition existed at all.
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I've been contacting every dealership in a 500 mile radius looking for backouts. One around Houston marked it up $5k and wouldn't even lease it. They had it sold by the end of the day it got there. If anybody else had one it was a 2021 used for test drives only.

I am going to a dealer that had a back out yesterday on one that is supposed to get there tomorrow. They have said no mark up and that they'll apply the ev credit to the lease. I'm skeptical about that but we'll see. It's a higher trim than I was looking to get into so that credit on the lease will actually make or break the deal for me more than likely.
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Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?
We should always read the official guidance when possible. According to IRS.GOV:
Transition Rule for Vehicles Purchased before August 16, 2022
If you entered into a written binding contract to purchase a new qualifying electric vehicle before August 16, 2022, but do not take possession of the vehicle until on or after August 16, 2022 (for example, because the vehicle has not been delivered), you may claim the EV credit based on the rules that were in effect before August 16, 2022. The final assembly requirement does not apply before August 16, 2022.
Vehicles Purchased and Delivered between August 16, 2022 and December 31, 2022
If you purchase and take possession of a qualifying electric vehicle after August 16, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, aside from the final assembly requirement, the rules in effect before the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act for the EV credit apply (including those involving the manufacturing caps on vehicles sold). If you entered into a written binding contract to purchase a new qualifying vehicle before August 16, 2022, see the rule above.
Source: Plug-in Electric Drive Vehicle Credit Section 30D | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)
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Let us know if that's the case. VW Leasing (i.e. VW Credit) put out a note saying effect immidiately they were no longer providing that. You can find it posted in multiple places on this board, so no use reposting it in this thread.

I am going to a dealer that had a back out yesterday on one that is supposed to get there tomorrow. They have said no mark up and that they'll apply the ev credit to the lease. I'm skeptical about that but we'll see. It's a higher trim than I was looking to get into so that credit on the lease will actually make or break the deal for me more than likely.
Let us know if that's the case. VW Leasing (i.e. VW Credit) put out a note saying effect immidiately they were no longer providing that. You can find it posted in multiple places on this board, so no use reposting it in this thread.
that’s why I’m skeptical… but they also may not use vwcredit. Dealers don’t have to use vwcredit do they?
Not that I know of. Though the instant rebate was a 'feature' of the offering from VW Credit for sure.

that’s why I’m skeptical… but they also may not use vwcredit. Dealers don’t have to use vwcredit do they?
Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?
I think 2021 id.4 backlog was stagnant before the signing. So much bad press on the software made people hold off. I wish I had done that, the tax credit was nice but the software is way frustrating. for instance this intermittent bug:

Motor vehicle Automotive mirror Automotive lighting Automotive design Automotive exterior



Turn it off and back on does not fix. Waiting about an hour and it goes away. weird.
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I think 2021 id.4 backlog was stagnant before the signing. So much bad press on the software made people hold off. I wish I had done that, the tax credit was nice but the software is way frustrating. for instance this intermittent bug:

View attachment 14706


Turn it off and back on does not fix. Waiting about an hour and it goes away. weird.
Hmmm .. 🤔

I don't think that's a 2.1 stability bug. I think that's a problem with your car that needs fixing. I've never seen that message on my display, and don't recall too many reports of it on this forum or on Facebook.

The only stagnant backlog were the 22s sitting at port for months awaiting a resolution to the software update. The dealer lots were picked bare of 21s for most of the first months of this year.
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Hmmm .. 🤔

I don't think that's a 2.1 stability bug. I think that's a problem with your car that needs fixing. I've never seen that message on my display, and don't recall too many reports of it on this forum or on Facebook.

The only stagnant backlog were the 22s sitting at port for months awaiting a resolution to the software update. The dealer lots were picked bare of 21s for most of the first months of this year.
I will forward the photos to service dept, but so far they have been clueless with this car. The black screen problem has been a NTF every time reported.
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My local dealer has 6 of 8 units (2022) showing available to reserve vs sale pending. Shockingly last week I had a cold call from different dealer that sold me my E-Golf back in 3/2020 to see if I was interested in trading it in for an ID.4 - guess the bubble is bursting on the used/new car market. Told them I was not interested and to check back in with me in the new year - they were disinterested 6 months ago while they were chasing crazy markups so I am disinterested now. :LOL:
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