[Nai3t]

I think 2021 id.4 backlog was stagnant before the signing. So much bad press on the software made people hold off. I wish I had done that, the tax credit was nice but the software is way frustrating. for instance this intermittent bug:

View attachment 14706


Turn it off and back on does not fix. Waiting about an hour and it goes away. weird.

Hmmm .. 🤔

I don't think that's a 2.1 stability bug. I think that's a problem with your car that needs fixing. I've never seen that message on my display, and don't recall too many reports of it on this forum or on Facebook.

The only stagnant backlog were the 22s sitting at port for months awaiting a resolution to the software update. The dealer lots were picked bare of 21s for most of the first months of this year.

 

[Nai3t]

I am not sure what you guys are talking about VW of A reported 1660 cars sold in Q2 2022. Ford just announced sales of over 25,000 MME's in August alone. VW does not do monthly sales for a reason.

Yes, they literally had zero 2022s to sell from end of '21 production in December until June – they were all penned up at port awaiting the software update. That's no mystery to anybody who has been following this saga on the forum.

 

[Nai3t]

I asked if I could place deposit or hold it in some way, maybe even start the buying process. Because I am not making that trip unless it is a sure thing. But they wanted me to come in else they could not hold it. Which is weird.

I had two similarly weird experiences like that.

The ID.4 was "held" with a Sunday phone call, no deposit, just the assurance of the sales guy and my promise to be there in on Tuesday to finalize. This was cold call, no reservation, high demand just weeks after launch.

My i3 likewise, four states away in Texas, right at the announcement of close of the i3 order book, negotiated a nice discount by email and phone while California dealers were charging markups, and Texas wouldn't even take a deposit, just wanted a copy of my airline reservation to hold it for a week. I lost a little sleep over that one.

 

[Nai3t]

So they can not deliver cars or update them. This really is beginning to look like a dysfunctional company.

Beginning to? VW is its own worst disaster.

 

[Nai3t]

Electric Viking shared July data today indicating VW delivered 19,000 ID.4s worldwide, ranking it the #8 highest produced model and only one on the list from a legacy manufacturer. I don't see a data source so take it with a grain of salt, but something to keep an eye on as they emerge from a terrible 2022 start and ramp up production.

 

[Nai3t]

There's also the Osborne Effect* at play: Many buyer's know the 23s are at hand, so there may be more putting the purchase on pause awaiting the US-built version, or an incentive to buy a 22.

* thanks LHN!

 

[Nai3t]

I'll say this: it'll be a cruel, cruel trick if Congress releases some sort of clarification/compromise along the lines of "any EV purchased in 2022 qualifies under the old rule" and sends everyone's plans into the dunk tank. They have the remainder of the year to make such a clarification, but I'd guess it would take EV sales to stall across the board to force such an exception.

 

[Nai3t]

EV sales could stop completely and that wouldn't happen. Congress doesn't do anything because it's in the interests of the people, they do it because they're getting "donations" from the the right industries in the right amounts.

That's kind of my point you're repeating, if NADA and big auto and foreign embassies on behalf of their manufacturing base and Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow who has presumably close ties to the Big 3 feel the squeeze and in turn exert pressure, the rule will be clarified. Auto dealers donate to their elected officials on both sides of the aisle, in all 50 states. The worse sales decline (IF they decline), the greater that pressure will be to do something. They're going to hear it from their constituents, from their donors, from economic advisors, from environmental groups, and from foreign governments. It would be impossible to resist.

 

[Nai3t]

...the changing financial troubles of the Middle Class(and the Disadvantaged Class) are no longer the main driving force on prices. So now we all can do is sit around wondering why there are no more crashes so we can find great deals

The low hanging fruit gets picked first, but even the shortest child on the ground knows the tree is full of tasty apples. It just takes somebody to invent the right kind of ladder to get to them.

 

[Nai3t]

Most insurance companies charge a a lot more for EVs.
Then there is that giant risk of spending $25K for a battery after 8 years.

Sorry, these are both not true.

There are insurance posts on this forum and there is no great and obvious difference, but of course there is variability in comparing any type of car. In my case, the ID.4 replaced a top-spec 5 year old Volvo S60 ($36,000 sticker in 2016) and Liberty Mutual actually lowered the annual premium by about $100. And the premium was close to parity when I replaced a 2013 Audi Allroad with a 2-year old 2017 BMW i3. So that EVs cost more to insure... well, I don't want to declare it a myth, but from what I've seen on these forums there's no clear cut price increase.

And the new battery after 8 years is just mythical at this point. The average owner hangs on to a car for just shy of 8 years, but there's also no great queue of owners of 8-year old EVs in need of battery replacement. Alternate to replacement, faced with a depleted battery, you'd let the car go as its value is low anyway, and replace it with something newer. But these will be outliers, these batteries ought to outlast the chassis up to 300,000 miles. As you suggest, there's risk -- there's always risk -- but it's not a giant risk.

 

[Nai3t]

What ever they are, the number keeps climbing every day. Buyers of ID4 are not like tesla fanboys and wont easily buy the cars without the tax rebate specially given that the rebate would like be back next year.

Help me out here, I'm thoroughly confused.

VW is increasing the number of ID.4s it is shipping to the US. ID.4s in transit is steadily increasing according to the inventory list.

Yet potential owners are still waiting for their cars to arrive, some being told they are months out?

Is your claim here that sales are flatlining because the number of vehicles being shipped has increased?

I'm not in the market so I haven't checked local availability, but you're telling me that available inventory on the lot has increased because of the loss of the tax credit? Anybody could walk in off the street and buy one at MSRP?

 

[Nai3t]

dealers are selling for little profit and not like crazy 10k markups

I don't know whether you intended this as you wrote it, but I just wanted to point out that VW dealers are making fair profit when selling at MSRP. I suppose "very little" is open to interpretation.

Consider that the ID.4 is a hot mover, the customer does the leg work with the ordering, and because the typical ID.4 sits for such a short amount of time, there is no floor plan cost associated with keeping the vehicle in inventory. And of course there are other profit sources tied in to these vehicles with meeting sales quotas, selling extended warranty and service plans, plus financing kickbacks.

2022 ID.4 - Style: Single-motor Pro - 4-Door SUV with RWD. Powered by by an Electric Engine w/ Automatic Transmission.
MSRP
$40,760
Dealer Cost
$39,510

2022 ID.4 - Style: Dual-motor Pro - 4-Door SUV with AWD. Powered by by an Electric Engine w/ Automatic Transmission.
MSRP
$44,440
Dealer Cost
$42,969

2022 ID.4 - Style: Single-motor Pro S - 4-Door SUV with RWD. Powered by by an Electric Engine w/ Automatic Transmission.
MSRP
$45,260
Dealer Cost
$43,740

2022 ID.4 - Style: Dual-motor Pro S - 4-Door SUV with AWD. Powered by by an Electric Engine w/ Automatic Transmission.
MSRP
$48,940
Dealer Cost
$47,199

2023 Volkswagen ID.4 Prices: MSRP, Invoice vs Dealer Cost w/Holdback

2023 Volkswagen ID.4 Price Guide: Includes MSRP, factory invoice, holdback, & true dealer cost pricing - Plus tips on how to find the best deals.

www.car-buying-strategies.com

 

[Nai3t]

...almost without any markup (1k)

lol, if they've got the cajones to cold-call offering a $1k markup ("such a deal!") then they're still probably selling ok. Unclaimed cars aren't the problem; inventory sitting on the lot will be. We're two weeks away from the earliest projected release date for the '23s, so this is going to be an interesting transition to watch.

 

[Nai3t]

Public Service Announcement: for any interested buyers, a dealer markup of any amount is just a starting number. Of course they would love the first person contacted to enthusiastically say "Yes! I'll drop everything come right now and happily pay your insane value added fee."

Realistically an entirely appropriate response could be "I'll buy it for MSRP and not a penny more."

They don't have to say yes, but somebody will. If the car sits, they certainly will.

I've had used buying experiences where instead of the sales guy bugging me, I'd reach out to him every couple of days and ask "Do you still have my car? I'll buy it today for $xxx." I had visited, driven the car, met the salesman. Both took a few days (more than a week, maybe about two) before they relented.

It just depends how hot the market is, and how badly they want to move that particular vehicle. It seems that supply has increased enough where negotiating is once again possible (hard to negotiate when the buyer behind you is willing to pay whatever).

 

[Nai3t]

Are they specifying "in transit" or "available now?"

My memory of 18 months ago was a number of sites showed vehicles in inventory that were still on the boat.

 

[Nai3t]

Inventory went down last week, still no 2023s

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798

View attachment 15634

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

October 1 and inventory is at 1511 units (most '22s, a few '21s, none are '23s), coupled with the post today by @Stu Ncal EV that some 23s are showing Released to Transport. It would seem this could be the tapering of the supply pipeline from Zwickau and beginning of the transition to domestic supply? What's the cutoff date for the last imported ID.4 to be loaded onto a ship?

First 2023 ID.4's to market are all AWD Pro S - 72...

Looking at the chrome extension statistics for Oct 1 2023, the only trim to have been produced so far is AWD Pro S. All other trims are pre-production. There are now 10 cars showing as 35-1, Released to transporter (rail), aka the Chattanooga Choo-Choo. 10 more are at customs, and 31 more...

www.vwidtalk.com

 

[Nai3t]

these rates will cool of car market, I wonder will it do the same for EVs

For some perspective, 5% isn't an atypical auto loan rate historically, and rates were even higher in the early 2000s. If anything, the low rates these past couple of years have been unprecedented, and remember -- big auto offers promotional interest rates all the time to strategically stoke sales. Promotional 0% is one of the reasons Volvo got my business coming out of Dieselgate, and for whatever dumb reason BMW was offering 0.9% just 14 months ago and lured me into a new i3 I didn't really need.

 

[Nai3t]

when we will get back to how it used to be when you drive a new car off the lot and it drops $10k right away

It's going to partly depend on clarification of the rebate situation.

If I'm comparing "nearly new" used to a new car with potentially $10,000 in federal and state rebates, that changes my calculus significantly. $10,000 less than MSRP is just the break even in that case.

 

[Nai3t]

...if the administration changes then the rules maybe relaxed for another 4 years. We lose. China and Germany win. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to regain auto manufacturing here in the US.

I agree with your timeline scenario, but replace US with North America – ie the assembled in Mexico Ford Mach-e.

 

[Nai3t]

I am not sure how it works when dealers end up with a lot cancelled reservations. I doubt VW will make them pay "MSRP" for those.

I can 't believe that VW and their dealerships would ever put the customers in the position of determining any particular dealerships inventory. In other words, I expect there is an agreement that unexecuted orders are an option for details to either return to VOA, or take on voluntarily. I can't imagine a dealership would ever ever agree to allow 100 customers to walk away from 100 orders and stick the dealer with 100 vehicles they don't want.

There's MSRP, there's Invoice, there are holdbacks and there are bonuses. If sales stall there may even be rebates to incentive customers.