[wildpitcher]

Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?

Theoretically, yes, you could delay putting it in service until after 1/1. The challenge will be if it is not a base standard model 3 it won't qualify - the higher trims exceed the $55,000 cap for cars. Also, I've read the battery cells for the model 3s come from China, so maybe no Half Credit there either. I'd say the odds are stacked against you.

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

the first $3750 is from battery requirement which is 40% minerals should come from US free trade partners and unless clarified or some meaningful administrative direction,almost none will qualify
the second $3750 requirement is battery manufactured in US OR assembled in US. Even though Model 3 RWD battery is made in china by CATL but battery pack is assembled in california and car window sticker says battery from US.
so unless Tesla clarifies or if pack is assembled in US then technically this version should qualify atleast $3750
we should be knowing more details soon

Agreed, we shall see on the battery tests, but I wouldn't bet money on any more than a half credit for either the ID.4 or the Tesla model 3. There likely won't be any credits at all on anything beyond the standard range base trim model 3 because of the vehicle price restriction

The sticky part is that it doesn't say the battery is manufactured or assembled in the right place - it says 50% of the battery components are manufactured or assembled in the right place. As one example, I'm not sure how it will be interpreted if the cells are manufactured and assembled in China, then shipped to the US to be assembled into a finished battery.

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

Do the battery requirements go into effect in 2023 or 2024? I thought I saw that the battery requirements phase in starting 2024.

2023.

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

12,000 miles on average a year divided by 300 miles for $100 equals how much money per year? Facebook is not Factbook! 🤣

Yes, 12,000 miles per year at 25 mpg equals 480 gallons. 480 gallons times $4 per is $1920 per year. 480 times $5 is $2400.

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

other side of that equation is EV supply which is clearly inadequate to meet the current demand. that will also change but in the next several years while the supply chains and car makers catch up..at this point I hang my hopes on either Yellen postponing the battery requirements (more likely) or VW delivering a US made ID4 before she enacts the battery requirements (less likely)...

as for income levels this gives you good idea:
View attachment 14994

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States

I believe these data are dated. The median household salary is now in the high $60s K

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

22 ID4 inventory/inbound cars numbers are still rising.
on Aug 30th count was 1,627 and today it is @ 1,904....

View attachment 15201

This is good news. It means that cars that customers have ordered and have been waiting for are starting to arrive at dealers.

It means nothing else. 90%+ of these cars are already spoken for and the others are customers that refused their orders at the last minute. These will be sold within days (hours?) to those willing to pay a markup.

 

[wildpitcher]

If you you are not in any hurry, Equinox may be good choice, at least it will qualify for that full 7.5k rebate.

I hope Chevrolet can deliver the car at promised price after 2 years, without price hikes and on Time. It really seems interesting, specially at the price point.

Have you considered smaller battery ID4 model, as ID4 has a lot of premium features in base model and you will have to pay a lot more for those features in Equinox, that too if available.

We do not know yet whether the Equinox would qualify for the entire $7500. It probably will not.

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more ID.4s on the road. I have had a few "2 or more ID.4 days" lately, up from rarely see one. Delivery rate is headed up.

Dave

 

[wildpitcher]

In the current environment, where no dealers are offering ICE vehicles below MSRP and gas prices in CA are $7 a gallon, EV is definitely in the running to be the economic choice if you pre-ordered and get it at MSRP. Not the high end Tesla's.. but the Model 3 and VW ID.4 and the chevy EUV are cheaper than similarly equipped ICE vehicles after the FED Rebates.. and then the state rebates vary and can make them a better deal than ICE quickly after year 1.

The benefit of ICE over EV was always the promotions and discounts were usually better. That hasn't been the case for 3 years. Throw in the new $7500 fed credit next year for GM, Tesla and VW... and those EV brands will have a huge advantage over ICE. Although I do see the ICE vehicles coming down from MSRP again next year. So all will balance out eventually.

This 4th quarter... Oct-December will be really bad for Tesla for deliveries. Not a single person with any sense wouldn't try with all their might to push the delivery of their Model 3 to january 1st, 2023.

"Not a single person with any sense wouldn't try with all their might to push the delivery of their Model 3 to january 1st"

And then still get $0 credit because their model 3 trim exceeded $55000.

Dave