What ever they are, the number keeps climbing every day. Buyers of ID4 are not like tesla fanboys and wont easily buy the cars without the tax rebate specially given that the rebate would like be back next year.
The number keeps climbing as VW is getting back to a normal delivery cadence in the US, rather than the zero deliveries a week they had for a not-insignificant period of time. But just counting what has left the port doesn’t tell you what’s happening with them by itself.
If it was true cars were sitting on lots going unsold, I’d own an ID.4 by now. Under the new rules, I am just outside the tax rebate eligibility, so I get 0$ either way. Why wait for a 2023 which is more expensive? But no. There are no unsold cars that I can put money down on in my region, and I’ve been looking. I’ve even been told by a couple dealers my best shot is to reserve one. Odd thing to say if these are becoming readily available, isn’t it?
The risk of it going kaput after 8 years is extremely high. And we are talking about 20K-30K. Not a small number. Engines dont go completely dead after warranty. They are easily repairable for much much less. You cant repair battery packs. At least not now.
You are going to have to define “kaput” and “extremely high risk” here. Batteries generally degrade over time, rather than outright fail. When lithium batteries do fail like that, it’s usually because they simply haven’t been charged in too long and discharged too far to be recoverable. I’ve done this on accident myself with power tool batteries, but a car battery isn’t likely to hit this with the usage patterns cars have. The BMS used in cars is going to be better at battery health management in general than the cheap chargers used in other applications as well.
As for repairability, the MEB platform uses a modular pack where single modules in the pack can be replaced in case of faults. There is a financial benefit to VW by being able to keep warranty repairs cheap(er) in the face of growing lithium demand. So in the case of cells that do outright fail, the modules are replaceable without replacing the whole battery. The point where the whole pack needs replacing depends on your threshold where the capacity no longer meets the needs, and how many miles you drive a year. 8 years seems rather short for the average miles/year.
Yes, tesla uses too many aluminum panels which are difficult to repair. I agree, tesla insurance is way more than that of ID4. Which is one of the biggest reason i was interested in the id4.
The actuarial data is based on more than just the cost, but the risks that the car might be in a crash (or even the risks the driver poses by age, sex, etc). I’m aware
of the factors that can play with Teslas (the type of driver they attract, the potential for bad behavior things like Autopilot can foster, repair costs, etc), but I’m more musing out loud that it would be interesting to see how those factors combine to create the actuarial data used to set insurance prices.
If cost to repair was the only factor, I wouldn’t be getting quotes saying an ID.4 is as cheap to insure as my Outback which is 15k cheaper.