[Nadrealista]

looks like there are 1,627 22 ID4 on their way or already in US. it will be interesting to see how many of these orders will be canceled upon arrival.

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

 

[Nadrealista]

I am also starting to get calls from local dealers offering canceled ID4 orders

 

[Nadrealista]

looks like there are 1,627 22 ID4 on their way or already in US. it will be interesting to see how many of these orders will be canceled upon arrival.

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

View attachment 14807

looks like inventory is slightly increasing:

 

[Nadrealista]

unfortunate truth is that any (desirable) EV on the market today will sell with or without tax credit, until economy hits recession and demand dries up which can (will?) happen in not to distant future...

 

[Nadrealista]

other side of that equation is EV supply which is clearly inadequate to meet the current demand. that will also change but in the next several years while the supply chains and car makers catch up..at this point I hang my hopes on either Yellen postponing the battery requirements (more likely) or VW delivering a US made ID4 before she enacts the battery requirements (less likely)...

as for income levels this gives you good idea:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States

 

[Nadrealista]

Well, the rule can't 'violate' the law. So they have to meet at least what in the law black and white parts without question. There is a lot of room for interpretation below that, but if the law says 'x battery components from the US starting at enactment' there isn't much that any interpretation can do about that.

You can get creative after that, though woe to those that also knowingly violate the spirit of the intent behind the law by the executive branch as well. Senator's in particular have a long memory and generally a long tenure, and they do not take such slights lightly. Don't ask me how I know.

I think treasury department can delay implementation of the battery rules if the carmakers know which buttons to push, just like they did with using US steel for the infrastructure bill projects.

 

[Nadrealista]

I think it uses 2019 data and it shows that median income is in the 65-70K bracket, see bottom of the Wikipedia page link

US Census Bureau figures for 2019

Income of Household	Number (thousands) [64]	Percent in Group	Percent At or Below	Mean Income [64]	Mean number of earners [45]	Mean size of household [45]
Total	128,451	—	—	$98,088	1.32	2.53
Under $5,000	3784	2.95	2.95	$1,095	0.20	1.78
$5,000 to $9,999	2702	2.10	5.05	$7,917	0.36	1.72
$10,000 to $14,999	5141	4.00	9.05	$12,413	0.30	1.52
$15,000 to $19,999	5171	4.03	13.08	$17,358	0.44	1.68
$20,000 to $24,999	5066	3.94	17.02	$22,272	0.63	1.88
$25,000 to $29,999	5247	4.08	21.10	$27,054	0.74	2.05
$30,000 to $34,999	5457	4.25	25.35	$32,165	0.83	2.14
$35,000 to $39,999	4702	3.65	29.00	$37,127	0.92	2.23
$40,000 to $44,999	5377	4.20	33.20	$41,981	0.99	2.21
$45,000 to $49,999	4972	3.87	37.07	$47,098	1.05	2.28
$50,000 to $54,999	4885	3.80	40.87	$52,000	1.15	2.36
$55,000 to $59,999	4364	3.40	44.27	$57,148	1.20	2.44
$60,000 to $64,999	4531	3.53	47.80	$61,985	1.42	2.44
$65,000 to $69,999	3655	2.85	50.65	$67,147	1.42	2.66
$70,000 to $74,999	3807	2.95	53.60	$72,099	1.39	2.60
$75,000 to $79,999	3549	2.75	56.35	$77,015	1.46	2.61
$80,000 to $84,999	3402	2.65	59.00	$81,993	1.55	2.70
$85,000 to $89,999	3013	2.35	61.35	$87,072	1.62	2.71
$90,000 to $94,999	3023	2.35	63.70	$92,096	1.60	2.71
$95,000 to $99,999	2817	2.20	65.90	$97,282	1.71	2.86
$100,000 to $104,999	2852	2.22	68.12	$102,087	1.64	2.85
$105,000 to $109,999	2491	1.95	70.07	$107,156	1.73	2.84
$110,000 to $114,999	2413	1.88	71.95	$111,979	1.77	2.89
$115,000 to $119,999	1965	1.53	73.48	$117,101	1.94	3.11
$120,000 to $124,999	2393	1.86	75.34	$121,995	1.85	2.98
$125,000 to $129,999	1785	1.40	76.74	$127,103	1.89	3.03
$130,000 to $134,999	1778	1.38	78.12	$132,095	1.91	3.06
$135,000 to $139,999	1582	1.23	79.35	$137,223	1.92	3.06
$140,000 to $144,999	1400	1.10	80.45	$142,087	1.86	3.08
$145,000 to $149,999	1311	1.02	81.47	$147,147	1.92	3.15
$150,000 to $154,999	1721	1.34	82.81	$151,963	1.82	2.96
$155,000 to $159,999	1208	0.94	83.75	$157,272	2.01	3.11
$160,000 to $164,999	1260	0.98	84.73	$161,959	2.07	3.16
$165,000 to $169,999	1008	0.78	85.51	$167,185	2.12	3.20
$170,000 to $174,999	1251	0.97	86.48	$172,193	1.98	3.16
$175,000 to $179,999	997	0.78	87.26	$177,153	1.98	3.25
$180,000 to $184,999	908	0.71	87.97	$181,968	2.06	3.32
$185,000 to $189,999	820	0.64	88.61	$187,216	2.05	3.09
$190,000 to $194,999	828	0.64	89.25	$192,064	2.05	3.26
$195,000 to $199,999	647	0.50	89.75	$197,211	2.14	3.28
$200,000 to $249,999	5354	4.15	93.90	$221,050	2.09	3.23
$250,000 and over	7816	6.10	100.00	$416,871

 

[Nadrealista]

or

 

[Nadrealista]

Im in Texas. Gas is cheap. 10000 miles means 400 gallons of gas for a 25MPG car.
Id4 will do 90MPGE in texas since electricity is also cheap here (13c/KWh). (lets assume 100MPGe)
Gas is currently $3.25/gallon
So I will spend 400x3.25 for the year for the gas car = $1300
I will spend 100x3.25 for the year for the EV = $325
Savings = $975
I currently own a 2017 bmw 330i which does 26MPG combined.
Most insurance companies charge a a lot more for EVs.
Then there is that giant risk of spending $25K for a battery after 8 years. I was planning to keep my EV for at least 12 years.
This is why without that $7500, its just not worth it. And I wont be qualifying for a rebate until I retire. AGI above max allowed. Not sure if it makes any economic sense for anyone making less than $150k to be buying a $55K car.

to calculate true cost of electricity for EV you use your miles per KWh average . For ID4 that is between 3 and 4 miles per KWh depending on the driving conditions/driver. Most local utilities will give you discount overnight electricity rate to charge (here in VA it is 5c/kwh) so 1 EV mile would costs 1.25c (@4mi/KWh ) or 1.66c (@3mi/KWh ) then multiply that by number of miles you will drive per year.

Premium gas for your BMW is $4 per gallon so at 10k miles per year that is ~$1600 vs $125/166 for electricity so almost $1500 of gas saving per year or $12,000 over 8 years, than add to that maintenance savings (no oil/filter changes/brakes/spark plugs/belts/etc), also add time savings not having to go to shop to do maintenance or fill the car at the pump ~264 times in those 8 years (you wake up to charged EV)...been driving EVs since 2014 and ownership cost and time savings are substantial vs gasoline powered car. not to mention driving experience of EV and power delivery is far superior to IC technology.

battery does not need replacing @ 8 years, it might be ~10/15% down on its capacity but should be perfectly fine to keep going. 200/300k miles should be easily achievable...

 

[Nadrealista]

22 ID4 inventory/inbound cars numbers are still rising.
on Aug 30th count was 1,627 and today it is @ 1,904....

 

[Nadrealista]

Big caveat that this learning is true when demand exceeds supply, which should continue well into next year. But when the supply chain issues are gone, it could be a different story.

I suspect that this might start to change when 23 model year comes out and there is more abundant supply of late 22s coming in which inventory numbers are starting to suggest... so lets see what happens in October.

looking at order stats it appears that ~46% (summing the 15-1 and higher status) of the 22 orders will get delivered in the next couple months:

Order Status Code
2022 Model Year

01: Reserved	<1%
02: Pending lock	1%
03: Locked	37%
05: Locked - Order created	<1%
10: Locked - Request production	15%
10-2: Locked - Production scheduling soon	1%
15-1: Production scheduled	8%
15-2: Vehicle in production	4%
20-1: Production complete	10%
20-2: Left the port	11%
30-2: Unloaded from ship, not cleared customs	3%
30-3: Cleared customs, awaiting transport	2%
35-1: Released to transporter (rail)	3%
35-2: Released to transporter (truck)	1%
50: Arriving at dealer	4%

 

[Nadrealista]

Schumacher VW in North Palm Beach FL has a White 2022 AWD Pro S in stock from someone who missed locking the credit by 1 day. Of course its ~10K over MSRP. Then again dealers down the street at Ford have $30-40K markups on abandoned F150 Lightning orders. So this looks like a deal.

it is a great deal, for dealers

 

[Nadrealista]

22 ID4 inventory/inbound cars numbers are still rising.
on Aug 30th count was 1,627 and today it is @ 1,904....

View attachment 15201

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

 

[Nadrealista]

Inventory went down last week, still no 2023s

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

 

[Nadrealista]

cars.com is listing 86 MY23 ID4s for sale, so they are coming slowly.

 

[Nadrealista]

Inventory went down last week, still no 2023s

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798
Oct 3rd 1,503

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

 

[Nadrealista]

these rates will cool of car market, I wonder will it do the same for EVs

 

[Nadrealista]

Inventory went up last week, still no 2023s on VW inventory but 205 are showing on cars.com

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798
Oct 3rd 1,503
Oct 10th 1,615

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

https://www.cars.com/shopping/results/?dealer_id=&keyword=&list_price_max=&list_price_min=&makes[]=volkswagen&maximum_distance=all&mileage_max=&models[]=volkswagen-id.4&page_size=20&sort=distance&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=2023&zip=22043

looks like that are still only making AWDs in TN

ID4 Reservation Statistics

ID.4 reservation statistics from users who have chosen to anonymously share their data through the VW Reservation Assistant Chrome extension.

id4.misc.ws

 

[Nadrealista]

Inventory stayed same last week, still no 2023s on VW inventory but 317 are showing on cars.com

2022 ID4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798
Oct 3rd 1,503
Oct 10th 1,615
Oct 17th 1,616

2023 ID4 inventory:
Oct 17th 0

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

https://www.cars.com/shopping/results/?dealer_id=&keyword=&list_price_max=&list_price_min=&makes[]=volkswagen&maximum_distance=all&mileage_max=&models[]=volkswagen-id.4&page_size=20&sort=distance&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=2023&zip=22043

looks like that are still only making AWDs in TN, based on chrome extension

ID4 Reservation Statistics

ID.4 reservation statistics from users who have chosen to anonymously share their data through the VW Reservation Assistant Chrome extension.

id4.misc.ws

 

[Nadrealista]

Just because it doesn’t show in the extension, doesn’t mean they are not being built.

that is why I put "based on chrome extension " ...

so they are not being assigned yet to existing reservations, at least not to the ones that are reported in chrome extension which accounts for ~3-5% of the US reservations?

I wonder how big is US ID4 reservation queue now?