[Mrcleop]

I think treasury department can delay implementation of the battery rules if the carmakers know which buttons to push, just like they did with using US steel for the infrastructure bill projects.

As long as one car meets the criteria for $7500, I don’t think they’ll delay. Because they’ll say it’s at least possible to qualify. And somehow I think it’ll be a Ford or GM product that qualifies.

 

[Mrcleop]

That makes me very curious about the data on the actuarial tables. Because that suggests that Tesla owners are considered higher risk by some metric.

I mean, they sleep while the car’s on autopilot and drive 100mph on salt flats with their 3 daughters in the back.

Also insurance rates are dependent on vehicle price.

 

[Mrcleop]

So the learning here is that cars get sold regardless of the tax credit or not. We already knew this from Tesla but it now also applies to customers looking to buy an EV from a manufacturer who did not yet exceed the limit of number of vehicles sold. Yes there are always people for who the tax credit matters but for anyone not choosing to buy a car there are plenty of others the buy it instead, because they can and don't need the credit.

Big caveat that this learning is true when demand exceeds supply, which should continue well into next year. But when the supply chain issues are gone, it could be a different story.

 

[Mrcleop]

In the current environment, where no dealers are offering ICE vehicles below MSRP and gas prices in CA are $7 a gallon, EV is definitely in the running to be the economic choice if you pre-ordered and get it at MSRP. Not the high end Tesla's.. but the Model 3 and VW ID.4 and the chevy EUV are cheaper than similarly equipped ICE vehicles after the FED Rebates.. and then the state rebates vary and can make them a better deal than ICE quickly after year 1.

The benefit of ICE over EV was always the promotions and discounts were usually better. That hasn't been the case for 3 years. Throw in the new $7500 fed credit next year for GM, Tesla and VW... and those EV brands will have a huge advantage over ICE. Although I do see the ICE vehicles coming down from MSRP again next year. So all will balance out eventually.

This 4th quarter... Oct-December will be really bad for Tesla for deliveries. Not a single person with any sense wouldn't try with all their might to push the delivery of their Model 3 to january 1st, 2023.

Teslas might not suffer as much because the buyers are more likely over the income limits than a Bolt buyer.

 

[Mrcleop]

I bet come Jan 1st there will be model 3 for less than 55K

There already is a Model 3 for less than 55k, the RWD. They stopped taking orders of the Long Range because they had too many orders and the wait was too long. It was already over $55k at that time. They have no need to decrease the price. Shareholders would not be happy with less profit. For profit companies serve shareholders, not customers.

 

[Mrcleop]

look at that, and you can get one this month:
View attachment 16855

Yeah I can't imagine anyone would order the RWD now when it might qualify for the tax credit next year. That's just leaving money on the table. But I wouldn't be surprised come January that $46,990 becomes $54,990.

 

[Mrcleop]

hm just puled it of their page, let me check again

still same price for me

View attachment 16867

Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

Design and order your Tesla Model 3, the car of the future. Learn about lease, loan and cash payment options, warranties, electric vehicle incentives, gasoline savings and more.

www.tesla.com

They’re not showing the destination fee which brings it up to the $48k number.

 

[Mrcleop]

Then if the administration changes then the rules maybe relaxed for another 4 years.

There are already signs pointing to Republicans taking control of the House and Senate. If the Presidency turns Republican in 2 years, the rules will not be relaxed. Republicans are anti-EV now. The tax credit will be repealed.