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Dealer Supply of ID.4s already increasing and sales stalling. Model 3s suddenly available in October! [speculation]

33100 Views 331 Replies 70 Participants Last post by Nai3t, 6 mo ago

Nocedit

Discussion Starter · 9 mo ago

Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?

201 - 220 of 332 Posts

Nai3t

· #201 · 9 mo ago

Are they specifying "in transit" or "available now?"

My memory of 18 months ago was a number of sites showed vehicles in inventory that were still on the boat.

Aizome

· #202 · 9 mo ago

Nai3t said:
Are they specifying "in transit" or "available now?"

My memory of 18 months ago was a number of sites showed vehicles in inventory that were still on the boat.

Some say In Transit, others say Sales Pending, and a few just do not have anything on them, but call for pricing (which I think just have not been updated to say In Transit or Sales Pending.) But again this is the most I've seen since I've starting looking at the ID.4 a couple months ago. Just nice to see more volume after weeks of nothing.

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ap2us

· #203 · 9 mo ago

My 22 Pro S RWD moonstone went to status 50 yesterday and my dealer called the same day (Northern California). Ordered 10/24/2021, lock requested on 1/15/2022, but I actually only locked on 2/4. Car left Emden port on 8/2 and reached Benicia, CA on 9/2.

I'll go and have a look on Saturday. Have been thinking about what to do for a while now. Unless the dealer has some magical incentive, I won't buy it. Tax credit is gone & CA laws didn't allow dealers to make contracts prior to the arrival of the car

My dealer now has 5 id4s listed without any "In Transit" or "Sale Pending". I guess I'm not the only one backing out. Maybe I have some luck with my 23 reservation from 8/4...

Nycturne

· #204 · 9 mo ago (Edited)

To be honest, there’s also now a number of people who no longer get the tax credit under the new income rules. A number of those are going to buy Tesla, because the brand is practically a status symbol now, but not all of them. Someone like me would honestly be fine with a 22 at a lower MSRP to the 23.

I would have expected parts of CA to be similar to WA in this regard. In WA, I’m still stuck at the end of some very large wait lists for cancellations. Silicon Valley engineers get even higher wages than the tech folks in Seattle so there should be more folks ineligable . But perhaps that means Silicon Valley folks are even more likely to go for something like the Model X, BMW, Jaguar or Audi e-tron over the ID.4?

So many variables.

EDIT: It also means though that someone ineligible for the tax credit, but not wanting to go up in price could look at the Ioniq 5 and have some luck there too. Ioniq 5 23MY isn’t going to get the tax credit, so it’s going to probably see continued demand among those who are just shy of eligibility.

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Nadrealista

· #205 · 9 mo ago

Nadrealista said:
22 ID4 inventory/inbound cars numbers are still rising.
on Aug 30th count was 1,627 and today it is @ 1,904....

View attachment 15201

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087

Rectangle Font Slope Parallel Screenshot

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

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Ben V

· #206 · 9 mo ago (Edited)

Aizome said:
VW Pasadena is now showing 29 in inventory, of course the 15 from before are all most like "Sale pending." I'm sure a majority of these will get "sale pending" as well. However, that 15 I saw from 2 weeks ago are still basically sitting there from the VINs I recognize, so I wonder if some are dragging their feet to pick up or might just be cancelled. The other thing is, over the last 2 months, I have not seen this many in stock even if its for orders. So that's nice to see people who did order 22s and are keeping them, that they seem to be coming in finally; just sucks that it is way after the IRA was signed and that CA dealerships refused to do binding contracts.

I bet if you go there there won't be a single ID4 on the lot that's for sale. 'Sale pending' also doesn't mean the car is physically there, it could still be in transit in the US. Back when I ordered mine I saw it on the website as well as 'sale pending' before the car had arrived.

EDIT- all cars at VW Pasadena have a 'sale pending' or are 'in transit' and when you hover over the 'in transit' box you will see many of them are not expected to arrive at the dealership until 2-3 months from now.

Reactions: 4

sbt007

· #207 · 9 mo ago

I found one at VW of San Francisco this morning - Pro S AWD Blue/Black. The person on the phone said it is MSRP (I guess there could be some extra items tacked on but did not ask). He also said it is the only cancellation they have had in a while. My first requirement is a gray interior so I passed. But maybe this helps someone else - if it is still there.

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PANZERidIV

· #208 · 9 mo ago

I am amazed at how many people are taking the “word on the phone” of car salesman. In my experience they will often lie to your face and even tack on $$$ to the agreed price in the paperwork(Jeep). But now on the internet they are 😇

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sbt007

· #209 · 9 mo ago

PANZERidIV said:
I am amazed at how many people are taking the “word on the phone” of car salesman. In my experience they will often lie to your face and even tack on $$$ to the agreed price in the paperwork(Jeep). But now on the internet they are 😇

Possible. But I didn't want that particular config so no reason to probe on the price. If someone wants it, they can find out more.

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wildpitcher

· #210 · 9 mo ago

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more ID.4s on the road. I have had a few "2 or more ID.4 days" lately, up from rarely see one. Delivery rate is headed up.

Dave

Reactions: 2

pokepud3

· #211 · 9 mo ago

So I visited and called multiple san diego dealer today. As of today every single one had at least one in stock, they were selling. Looks like this is the start. They also said they are getting more in. Seems like deliveries are off to a good start. Yes they did have massive markups on all of them which isn't; helping.

PANZERidIV

· #212 · 9 mo ago

$10,000 markups at San Diego dealers says a lot about how much availability there is, that’s for sure!

Reactions: 1

pokepud3

· #213 · 9 mo ago

PANZERidIV said:
$10,000 markups at San Diego dealers says a lot about how much availability there is, that’s for sure!

Not really. Just the beginning. Before it wouldn't have sat for a day even with markup. Now it's sitting a good few days as they negotiate the markup down in person. Inventory is going up. I for one, have a locked 2023 on the way, and no longer want a 2022, even for discount if they ever find the need to do so.

Ben V

· #214 · 9 mo ago

pokepud3 said:
Before it wouldn't have sat for a day even with markup. Now it's sitting a good few days as they negotiate the markup down in person.

That seems to be saying exactly the same thing, twice. You’re just making it sound like it’s different.

Reactions: 2

Nadrealista

· #215 · 8 mo ago

Inventory went down last week, still no 2023s

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798

Tire Automotive parking light Wheel Automotive tire Product

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

See less See more

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Dougie01

· #216 · 8 mo ago

My guess is the entire EV marketplace will be erratic for quite some time as new models come out, new factories come on line, recalls happen, incentives change, price of gas changes, etc.

The mystery is how close Tesla is to saturating the market segments it’s in.

Reactions: 2

PANZERidIV

· #217 · 8 mo ago (Edited)

3

I think another important consideration in the expanding high-end BEV market is Porsche or Tesla? We need more comparisons between the two and the crowd responses when each slowly cruises by the beach. 😍

Vehicle Water Tire Wheel Sky

Close…

Wheel Tire Vehicle Land vehicle Car

Not so close…

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Dougie01

· #218 · 8 mo ago

That green is what I want on my ID. Buzz

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Nai3t

· #219 · 8 mo ago

Nadrealista said:
Inventory went down last week, still no 2023s

ID 4 inventory/inbound cars counts:
Aug 30th 1,627
Sep 12th 1,904
Sep 19th 2,087
Sep 26th 1,798

View attachment 15634

VW Dealer Inventory

Build the VW of your dreams. Pick the model, engine, color, and features that match your budget and location. Car shopping should be as fun as the drive.

www.vw.com

October 1 and inventory is at 1511 units (most '22s, a few '21s, none are '23s), coupled with the post today by @Stu Ncal EV that some 23s are showing Released to Transport. It would seem this could be the tapering of the supply pipeline from Zwickau and beginning of the transition to domestic supply? What's the cutoff date for the last imported ID.4 to be loaded onto a ship?

www.vwidtalk.com

First 2023 ID.4's to market are all AWD Pro S - 72...

Looking at the chrome extension statistics for Oct 1 2023, the only trim to have been produced so far is AWD Pro S. All other trims are pre-production. There are now 10 cars showing as 35-1, Released to transporter (rail), aka the Chattanooga Choo-Choo. 10 more are at customs, and 31 more...

www.vwidtalk.com

www.vwidtalk.com

Nadrealista

· #220 · 8 mo ago

cars.com is listing 86 MY23 ID4s for sale, so they are coming slowly.

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