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Dealer Supply of ID.4s already increasing and sales stalling. Model 3s suddenly available in October! [speculation]

32973 Views 331 Replies 70 Participants Last post by  Nai3t
Already seeing some effects of the Inflation Act signing. 2022 ID.4s sitting on dealer lots in larger numbers. And Tesla model 3s available for order as early as October 2022. I see a lot more cancellations of Tesla's and German ID.4s because they are directly affected by the new tax bill. Should be interesting how large inventory of ID.4s get before end of year and how quickly you can take order on a Tesla.

If you order a Tesla Model 3 in Dec. 2022... can you refuse to pick it up until January 1st and sign the paperwork then to get the possible $3750 or $7500 off?
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2023, or sooner based on when guidance is issued. They increase in 2024, and the phrasing of the bill confused some people so articles were saying they started in 2024.
in 2023, minerals percentage starting at 40% either sourced in US or US free trade parters and increase each year 10% til it reaches 100% by 2029 (for the first half of rebate ie $3750)
Other half $3750 is based on where the battery manufacured or assembled (this one little more confusing)

Also from 2024, if any rebate, it will be applied at point of sale (like most of the state rebates (ex: MA)
The assembly requirement is for the car overall, not just the battery.

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Electric Vehicle Tax Credits: What You Need to Know (investopedia.com)

in 2023, minerals percentage starting at 40% either sourced in US or US free trade parters and increase each year 10% til it reaches 100% by 2029 (for the first half of rebate ie $3750)
Other half $3750 is based on where the battery manufacured or assembled (this one little more confusing)

Also from 2024, if any rebate, it will be applied at point of sale (like most of the state rebates (ex: MA)
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Not having to split production in Emden for US and EU should also help get more EU-spec ID.4s out there.
Slightly off-topic, but Emden doesn't seem very fast (yet) at assembling the ID4, my salesperson has told me that my ID4 entered production on the 20th of July, and finished production as of today.
Do the battery requirements go into effect in 2023 or 2024? I thought I saw that the battery requirements phase in starting 2024.
2023.

Dave
Slightly off-topic, but Emden doesn't seem very fast (yet) at assembling the ID4, my salesperson has told me that my ID4 entered production on the 20th of July, and finished production as of today.
Wasn't there a three-week August vacation in the middle of your production run?
Wasn't there a three-week August vacation in the middle of your production run?
This ⬆
My guess is they can't remove the "sale pending" tag until a certain amount of time has past or it's auto generated and they can't do anything about it. If they've gone through the trouble of taking photos and uploading them, there's a good chance it's available for purchase. However, the vehicles may sell quickly and the ads will linger.

Speaking with multiple dealers from various brands over the last few years I've come to realize they have very little control over the content or don't have the resources to manage it in real time. It may not be a priority for them since they likely get a lot of inquiries on what's listed and those leads could turn into potential sales on other models or orders.
I'm an insider and ran operations for a dealer group that retailed 45K cars last year. It's a very simple process for a dealer to update this as it's just a status code inside their DMS. It's just laziness that they don't do it though, frankly, it's a very low priority job. What usually happens with high demand vehicles is if a customer backs out, sales has lists of people to contact and that's the priority, not updating the dms for accurate lot status.
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Wasn't there a three-week August vacation in the middle of your production run?
This ⬆
I don't have any clue about when the factory is closed for vacation. So was it closed for all of August then?
I don't have any clue about when the factory is closed for vacation. So was it closed for all of August then?
For three weeks, as I recall. Search the forum, If you're interested. There was considerable angst at the time. What? Vacation? But I want my ID.4!
Slightly off-topic, but Emden doesn't seem very fast (yet) at assembling the ID4, my salesperson has told me that my ID4 entered production on the 20th of July, and finished production as of today.
It's not that. Emden could complete car in four days from the production line, if they had the parts for it. If your's was delayed this much, it was waiting on something.

Of course their vacation also probably didn't help, but assuming no issues with parts or personnell, and ID.4 is manufactured in four days.
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Btw, for this thread's intent - I don't think the demand has lessened yet. But there is some pressure on the markup.
I almost bought a ID.4 from a LA dealer couple of days ago. They had one cancelled order (that happened to be the exact color combo/trim I want) selling at MSRP + about $1200 in dealer installed extras. I was ok with it because I have a gradient on order and this was a non-gradient which saves me some money. I am about 5-6 hours away, so I asked if I could place deposit or hold it in some way, maybe even start the buying process. Because I am not making that trip unless it is a sure thing. But they wanted me to come in else they could not hold it. Which is weird. The dealership model needs to reinvent itself. Or maybe it is a CA thing. Anyway, I asked the rep to tell me at closing time if the car was still there, then I would come in at 8am next morning when they open. But it sold that evening.
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Btw, for this thread's intent - I don't think the demand has lessened yet. But there is some pressure on the markup.
I almost bought a ID.4 from a LA dealer couple of days ago. They had one cancelled order (that happened to be the exact color combo/trim I want) selling at MSRP + about $1200 in dealer installed extras. I was ok with it because I have a gradient on order and this was a non-gradient which saves me some money. I am about 5-6 hours away, so I asked if I could place deposit or hold it in some way, maybe even start the buying process. Because I am not making that trip unless it is a sure thing. But they wanted me to come in else they could not hold it. Which is weird. The dealership model needs to reinvent itself. Or maybe it is a CA thing. Anyway, I asked the rep to tell me at closing time if the car was still there, then I would come in at 8am next morning when they open. But it sold that evening.
Sounds like a vapor car, never existed or was already sold. Anything to get you into that dealer's store like bait and switch.
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Sounds like a vapor car, never existed or was already sold. Anything to get you into that dealer's store like bait and switch.
Well, the guy sent me a video of the car in the dealership, so it existed at some point. Not sure why it is so hard to actually buy it remotely. I mean, you can buy a house remotely except for the part when the notary comes at home to get signatures. But the house is sold through docusign pretty much.
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I am not sure what you guys are talking about VW of A reported 1660 cars sold in Q2 2022. Ford just announced sales of over 25,000 MME's in August alone. VW does not do monthly sales for a reason.
I am not sure what you guys are talking about VW of A reported 1660 cars sold in Q2 2022. Ford just announced sales of over 25,000 MME's in August alone. VW does not do monthly sales for a reason.
Yes, they literally had zero 2022s to sell from end of '21 production in December until June – they were all penned up at port awaiting the software update. That's no mystery to anybody who has been following this saga on the forum.
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Yes, they literally had zero 2022s to sell from end of '21 production in December until June – they were all penned up at port awaiting the software update. That's no mystery to anybody who has been following this saga on the forum.
So they can not deliver cars or update them. This really is beginning to look like a dysfunctional company.
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I asked if I could place deposit or hold it in some way, maybe even start the buying process. Because I am not making that trip unless it is a sure thing. But they wanted me to come in else they could not hold it. Which is weird.
I had two similarly weird experiences like that.

The ID.4 was "held" with a Sunday phone call, no deposit, just the assurance of the sales guy and my promise to be there in on Tuesday to finalize. This was cold call, no reservation, high demand just weeks after launch.

My i3 likewise, four states away in Texas, right at the announcement of close of the i3 order book, negotiated a nice discount by email and phone while California dealers were charging markups, and Texas wouldn't even take a deposit, just wanted a copy of my airline reservation to hold it for a week. I lost a little sleep over that one.
So they can not deliver cars or update them. This really is beginning to look like a dysfunctional company.
Beginning to? :LOL: VW is its own worst disaster.
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