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22 ID4 inventory/inbound cars numbers are still rising.
on Aug 30th count was 1,627 and today it is @ 1,904....

View attachment 15201
This is good news. It means that cars that customers have ordered and have been waiting for are starting to arrive at dealers.

It means nothing else. 90%+ of these cars are already spoken for and the others are customers that refused their orders at the last minute. These will be sold within days (hours?) to those willing to pay a markup.
 

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This is good news. It means that cars that customers have ordered and have been waiting for are starting to arrive at dealers.

It means nothing else. 90%+ of these cars are already spoken for and the others are customers that refused their orders at the last minute. These will be sold within days (hours?) to those willing to pay a markup.
I got two calls from the dealers offering me to buy id.4 RWD and AWD pro s almost without any markup (1k).

I do think that the number of unclaimed cars is rising fast. Not having a 7500 rebate will stop many buyers.

Anyway, just a fact from today....

Sent from my LE2125 using Tapatalk
 

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...almost without any markup (1k)
lol, if they've got the cajones to cold-call offering a $1k markup ("such a deal!") then they're still probably selling ok. Unclaimed cars aren't the problem; inventory sitting on the lot will be. We're two weeks away from the earliest projected release date for the '23s, so this is going to be an interesting transition to watch.
 

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I got two calls from the dealers offering me to buy id.4 RWD and AWD pro s almost without any markup (1k).

I do think that the number of unclaimed cars is rising fast. Not having a 7500 rebate will stop many buyers.

Anyway, just a fact from today....

Sent from my LE2125 using Tapatalk
Yes, I think the markup thing is true at some dealers. Many were charging 5K markup, now they are not charging any but tagging on 1.5K of GPS and some protective film. And probably hiking some interest rate in the background. But given that the car is now 7.5K more expensive, most of the "loss" burden is still being borne by the buyer, the dealers are feeling that a little less markup is good enough, and there are enough buyers ok with this arrangement. Try calling that dealer couple of days later. That ID.4 will be gone by then. Sometimes the person who cold called does not know - another agent already sold it. Happened to me twice. Sadly my local dealers are still charging 5K. Not that they have what I want.
 

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So the learning here is that cars get sold regardless of the tax credit or not. We already knew this from Tesla but it now also applies to customers looking to buy an EV from a manufacturer who did not yet exceed the limit of number of vehicles sold. Yes there are always people for who the tax credit matters but for anyone not choosing to buy a car there are plenty of others the buy it instead, because they can and don't need the credit.
 

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So the learning here is that cars get sold regardless of the tax credit or not. We already knew this from Tesla but it now also applies to customers looking to buy an EV from a manufacturer who did not yet exceed the limit of number of vehicles sold. Yes there are always people for who the tax credit matters but for anyone not choosing to buy a car there are plenty of others the buy it instead, because they can and don't need the credit.
Big caveat that this learning is true when demand exceeds supply, which should continue well into next year. But when the supply chain issues are gone, it could be a different story.
 

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Big caveat that this learning is true when demand exceeds supply, which should continue well into next year. But when the supply chain issues are gone, it could be a different story.
I suspect that this might start to change when 23 model year comes out and there is more abundant supply of late 22s coming in which inventory numbers are starting to suggest... so lets see what happens in October.

looking at order stats it appears that ~46% (summing the 15-1 and higher status) of the 22 orders will get delivered in the next couple months:

Order Status Code
2022 Model Year
01: Reserved<1%
02: Pending lock1%
03: Locked37%
05: Locked - Order created<1%
10: Locked - Request production15%
10-2: Locked - Production scheduling soon1%
15-1: Production scheduled8%
15-2: Vehicle in production4%
20-1: Production complete10%
20-2: Left the port11%
30-2: Unloaded from ship, not cleared customs3%
30-3: Cleared customs, awaiting transport2%
35-1: Released to transporter (rail)3%
35-2: Released to transporter (truck)1%
50: Arriving at dealer4%
 

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Big caveat that this learning is true when demand exceeds supply, which should continue well into next year. But when the supply chain issues are gone, it could be a different story.
Maybe. But also maybe not.

The future is famously unpredictable. For example, a year ago, I didn’t hear anyone correctly predicting what was going to happen to VW EV production and sales in the face of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine, a sunken car carrier, inflation, worsening Euro exchange rates vs the dollar, a European energy crisis, high U.S. gas prices, or the effective gutting of the U.S. federal tax credit.

Without actual data or other evidence about U.S. sales, we’re all just speculating, which I suppose is one of the fun things about a forum like this. For me, when I speculate, I try to base my speculation on present reality and as much data as I have available rather than on my own wishful thinking.
 

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After waiting for close to a year, people are declining delivery over $7500 rebate? or Is it just because they like 2023 model more? If its over 7.5k rebate then I would still take it.

As per my knowledge 2023 may have rebate of about $3750 only. So only $3500 difference, on top of that, I am not sure how much prices have gone up between 2022 to 2023 (In Canada, they have gone up by 3k and heat pump removed as standard equipment which is 1.5k so 4.5k hike in total) but even if prices have gone up even by about couple of grands with 2023 I don't see much savings. May be about 1.5/2k but now you are at the end of the queue and you never know when will your car arrive, plus you don't know about any future price hikes, who knows, tomorrow they will hike it by couple of grands. Even that $3750 rebate is not sure. I would get 2022 if they are giving me today, specially if prices have gone up with 2023s
 

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Those are all good points. Especially the note about Canada's price hike and heat pump. However, they have added more trim options that may better fit a buyer's needs.

For us, yes, we declined delivery over the $7,500 since we really didn't really want to spend $51k. I understand plenty of people see its value at that price, but we've set an approximate budget for the vehicle and this exceeded it. If the 2023 AWD Pro we ordered stays at $47,590 ($46,295+destination) and qualifies for a least $3,750 we'll likely accept it.
 

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Those are all good points. Especially the note about Canada's price hike and heat pump. However, they have added more trim options that may better fit a buyer's needs.

For us, yes, we declined delivery over the $7,500 since we really didn't really want to spend $51k. I understand plenty of people see its value at that price, but we've set an approximate budget for the vehicle and this exceeded it. If the 2023 AWD Pro we ordered stays at $47,590 ($46,295+destination) and qualifies for a least $3,750 we'll likely accept it.
Yes, as I mentioned if you save money. i.e. 47,590-3750 is around 44k which has difference of about 7k vs 2022 price of $51k, which is a lot.

In Canada wait times are extreme, people who ordered in Apr 2021 have their ETA in Jan 2023 for 2022 model, so may be for us its a completely different story. Price hikes by 3k, 1.5k Heat pump and also Interest rates have gone up by a few %. All together its a big price change.

One good news even after price hike for Canada is better configuration options. We just have 3 models, ID4, ID4 Pro RWD and ID4 Pro AWD. Black roof, 20" tires, Glass roof, Heat pump, silver side trims, Statement package all configurable. So you may save some money by excluding the things which you don't need.

I wanted Glass roof, but previously it was included with Statement package only which was 8k more and I did not go for it even though I wanted one but now it can be added at $1250 extra which is not bad if you just want grass roof, so I added it when my order was automatically switched to 2023
 

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After waiting for close to a year, people are declining delivery over $7500 rebate? or Is it just because they like 2023 model more? If its over 7.5k rebate then I would still take it.

As per my knowledge 2023 may have rebate of about $3750 only. So only $3500 difference, on top of that, I am not sure how much prices have gone up between 2022 to 2023 (In Canada, they have gone up by 3k and heat pump removed as standard equipment which is 1.5k so 4.5k hike in total) but even if prices have gone up even by about couple of grands with 2023 I don't see much savings. May be about 1.5/2k but now you are at the end of the queue and you never know when will your car arrive, plus you don't know about any future price hikes, who knows, tomorrow they will hike it by couple of grands. Even that $3750 rebate is not sure. I would get 2022 if they are giving me today, specially if prices have gone up with 2023s
US consumer here.

Personally, I'm going to decline the MY22 as it no longer qualifies for the tax incentive and would decline the MY23 if it also does not qualify for the full amount.

Without the full incentive, difference between MY22 vs MY23 is like $1300 difference in favor for the MY23. With full, it's more along the lines of $5k in favor of. Having the full federal tax incentive puts it right in line with my current monthly payments + gas (especially as someone who works remotely, an EV is super luxury vs necessity) so taking on something that's more than an incremental amount, whether I could afford it or not, wouldn't make sense.

Ideally, MY22 qualifying would have been the best. But, with the MY22 no longer and if the MY23 doesn't for the full amount, I'd probably look towards the Equinox instead.
 

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US consumer here.

Personally, I'm going to decline the MY22 as it no longer qualifies for the tax incentive and would decline the MY23 if it also does not qualify for the full amount.

Without the full incentive, difference between MY22 vs MY23 is like $1300 difference in favor for the MY23. With full, it's more along the lines of $5k in favor of. Having the full federal tax incentive puts it right in line with my current monthly payments + gas (especially as someone who works remotely, an EV is super luxury vs necessity) so taking on something that's more than an incremental amount, whether I could afford it or not, wouldn't make sense.

Ideally, MY22 qualifying would have been the best. But, with the MY22 no longer and if the MY23 doesn't for the full amount, I'd probably look towards the Equinox instead.
If you you are not in any hurry, Equinox may be good choice, at least it will qualify for that full 7.5k rebate.

I hope Chevrolet can deliver the car at promised price after 2 years, without price hikes and on Time. It really seems interesting, specially at the price point.

Have you considered smaller battery ID4 model, as ID4 has a lot of premium features in base model and you will have to pay a lot more for those features in Equinox, that too if available.
 

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If you you are not in any hurry, Equinox may be good choice, at least it will qualify for that full 7.5k rebate.

I hope Chevrolet can deliver the car at promised price after 2 years, without price hikes and on Time. It really seems interesting, specially at the price point.

Have you considered smaller battery ID4 model, as ID4 has a lot of premium features in base model and you will have to pay a lot more for those features in Equinox, that too if available.
We do not know yet whether the Equinox would qualify for the entire $7500. It probably will not.

Dave
 

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We do not know yet whether the Equinox would qualify for the entire $7500. It probably will not.

Dave
And more importantly, there is no equinox.
Btw ford recently increased MachE prices by fairly large amounts. 8K for a config that would interest me. So no one really knows where a car 1-2 years in the future will land price-wise.
 

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I got two calls from the dealers offering me to buy id.4 RWD and AWD pro s almost without any markup (1k).

I do think that the number of unclaimed cars is rising fast. Not having a 7500 rebate will stop many buyers.

Anyway, just a fact from today....

Sent from my LE2125 using Tapatalk
Got another call today - from Audi (I have Q4 eTron order as well). 4 etrons for sale, unclaimed (Houston).
Will see tomorrow how much they want above MSRP.

Anyway, the signal is pretty clear IMHO - we are finishing a seller's market, and moving into the buyers' market very soon. With today's 8.3% inflation, we will see another interest rate hike. My current car loan interest is 0.9%. The same car loan now - 4%. Soon will be 5%. This is an additional 140-170$ in ID.4 Pro S case. Ford Mache may ask 20K more - let's see them when they will have more stock than buyers. They had a golden age period for some time ...

Let us not forget that money-wise buying EV is not profitable. Despite many people saying otherwise. PHEV / Hybrid is a better choice (money wise). I have both, and I have very nice excel to compare. :)
 

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Got another call today - from Audi (I have Q4 eTron order as well). 4 etrons for sale, unclaimed (Houston).
Will see tomorrow how much they want above MSRP.

Anyway, the signal is pretty clear IMHO - we are finishing a seller's market, and moving into the buyers' market very soon. With today's 8.3% inflation, we will see another interest rate hike. My current car loan interest is 0.9%. The same car loan now - 4%. Soon will be 5%. This is an additional 140-170$ in ID.4 Pro S case. Ford Mache may ask 20K more - let's see them when they will have more stock than buyers. They had a golden age period for some time ...

Let us not forget that money-wise buying EV is not profitable. Despite many people saying otherwise. PHEV / Hybrid is a better choice (money wise). I have both, and I have very nice excel to compare. :)
I somewhat agree on PHEV a bit cheaper to operate but won’t it erase those savings when battery needs replacement? Provided you mainly use it on EV mode, doing 0-100% almost every day will ruin that battery in no time.
 

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If you you are not in any hurry, Equinox may be good choice, at least it will qualify for that full 7.5k rebate.

I hope Chevrolet can deliver the car at promised price after 2 years, without price hikes and on Time. It really seems interesting, specially at the price point.

Have you considered smaller battery ID4 model, as ID4 has a lot of premium features in base model and you will have to pay a lot more for those features in Equinox, that too if available.
Considered but not too interested. Just going to watch, wait and see what happens.
 
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