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Kings Red Pro S AWD
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I reserved my blue RWD Pro S on 10/21/21, shortly after VW paused locking anything. Then, on 1/14/22, I and a bunch of other folks got the lock invitation. As of today there are 51 orders on the spreadsheet that locked in 2022. I see no pattern to who VW chose to lock. There are RWD & AWD, Pro & Pro S, with and without gradient, and all colors. Mostly later registrations, but a significant number from before the locking pause.
This info was included in my locking email:
'If you reserved a rear‑wheel‑drive ID.4, you can expect to receive your vehicle 3 to 4 months from the time you lock your order and place a one‑time, fully‑refundable $400 vehicle deposit*. If you reserved an all‑wheel‑drive ID.4, you can expect to receive your vehicle 6 to 8 months from this time.'
FWIW, I went to order status 10 on 2/3/22.
Looking at our order... we reserved 5/21, and locked 7/2/21, our AWD is finally on a ship, in theory. We'll likely take delivery end of March/early April... or 8-9 months after the $400 deposit. Waiting is the hardest part, but I think the 6-8 months isn't that far off, at least for us.
 

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Is this accurate? That the majority of the orders/reservations in Oct 2021 do not have locked dates or is this just people not updating the data? There are a fraction of November orders which have mid Jan 2022 delivery dates?

What realistically is the # of months delay right now?

There is a column "Latest Estimated Delivery month". Looks like this is populated at resveration time although in all my information was not able to find any reference to this in the emails or on the VW portal.
So in my case, I put in a reservation on 2/1 for a 2022 RWD Pro S. I am not yet locked. I had an online chat with a VW rep who echoed the data that @SunWizard gave. Specifically, she said:

A few weeks to a few months to lock
3-4 months longer for delivery of a RWD
6-8 months longer for delivery of an AWD

Your mileage may vary, as may mine.

Dave
 

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I believe they have to shift tooling and supplies for EU and US, CA spec cars. That's why they were produced in a burst. And I'm the one of the "1% miracle AWD" as you've mentioned. And it's still waiting at Emden to get on a ship. And I don't really think AWD or RWD, or dealer allocation matters for your order, since I'm one of the only 5 preorders my dealer had or expecting to receive.

What I feel is, since mine is a silver AWD Pro, maybe because the color is more massively produced and Pro is lower equipped and needs less micro processor (at least no need for glass roof or sun shade), they would less likely be affect by some parts' shortage. Also, when I received the email that VW sent out asking us to choose different trim (RWD or AWD Pro S) for a faster delivery, I went with the AWD Pro S, but I switched back to AWD Pro on the lock in process because my wife hate glass roof and that brown interior color. I'd assume most people back then went for either RWD or AWD with Pro S, so ours just got slip through because it requires less controllers and motors for things like massage seats, motor seats, power tailgate, and glass roof.
Note: You can get a Pro S without the brown interior inserts, at least on the 2022. My wife hates them, too. There is, as you say, not way to delete the glass roof, though.

Dave
 

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If VW sold 1,368,000 vehicles in Europe in 2021 and was about 5% below normal with the chip shortage; and needed to make a target of 119g of CO2/km.

They should sell about 1,436,400 in 2022 back to a normal if supply resolves itself. (assumption). The Emissions targets in Europe need the grams of CO2/km need to come down to about 107g/km for the 2022 year.

Each VW ID4 produces about 18g of co2/km. Across the fleet lets say that the average a normal fleet (non BEV) will be 107g/km. So each VW ID4 saves 107 - 18 = about 89g of co2/km for the fleet average.

With the increase in autos sales in 2022 (reverting back the mean) the BEVs need to bring down the fleet CO2 emissions targets by 16.6%. This is going to have to be alot of production of battery vehicles.

It will take about 50,000 BEV units across the entire VW ID3 and ID4 and Buzz to get the average down about 10%. This is about 2/3 of the production of Emden factory probably in 2022.

Emden factory built about 120,000 Passat units a year; they are going to loose 25% of a year. So max they might be able to make about 90,000 VW IDs for Europe in 2022.

There is some room for Europe to send the USA more cars but with there being 25,000 reservations in the USA that need filled and 95,000 reservations in Europe. a 3.8:1 ratio I suspect that the majority share is going to stay in Europe.

With a decent measure if all the Emden units were allocated to Europe only near the end of 2022 might VW fill all the European orders; leaving a reservation queue probably of 40,000 units at the end of 2022.

My guess based on the math is that the majority of the production for the Z & E factory is going to stay in Europe. They will ship vehicles each month until Chattanooga is online. This would mean Europe probably ships around 10,000 VW ID4 to USA in 2022. Then Chattanooga will have to fill the orders. WIth the Passat line able to make about 110,000 cars a year; with 6 months of production in 2022; this is about 55,000 units that can be built. By the time Chattanooga comes online our 25,000 reservations will be down to 15,000 from Europe, but up probably 20,000 from US sales = 35,000 reservations or about 3.8 months of production to catch up. Leaving about 2.2 months of production for dealer allocations in the 2022 year.

This is starting to make some sense within a window of variation. Europe is not going to send vechicles to the USA when they have European customers with a larger waiting list in demand.

So my reservation on the of Feb 4 2022 going to say shows up at the dealership Sept 15, 2022. Lets see how this plays out.
Yep, I think my 2/1/2022 reservation is in the same boat. I'm expecting to receive it October to December from Chattanooga, perhaps as a 2023 model year.

Dave
 

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Note: You can get a Pro S without the brown interior inserts, at least on the 2022. My wife hates them, too. There is, as you say, not way to delete the glass roof, though.

Dave
How? When I looked it was either black interior with brown accents or grey interior with grey accents. I would have gladly taken black interior with either grey or black accents over the brown.
 

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How? When I looked it was either black interior with brown accents or grey interior with grey accents. I would have gladly taken black interior with either grey or black accents over the brown.
Ah, no, you can't have that. The choices are black with brown inserts or "lunar gray" with gray inserts. I chose the Lunar Gray interior with Moonstone Gray exterior.

Dave
 

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Blue ProS RWD is in my garage! Only took 187 days.
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@jstwannaknow Aw, crap! I had hopes San Diego would be less congested. Well, that's why they give such large buffers now when estimating delivery dates. Sigh.

BTW, a dealership person I talked to said that "normally" when they sell a car, VW gives them two allocations for new cars to order. That was to allow smaller dealerships to grow, IF they can actually move product. Not sure how it works now, though.
 

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@jstwannaknow Aw, crap! I had hopes San Diego would be less congested. Well, that's why they give such large buffers now when estimating delivery dates. Sigh.

BTW, a dealership person I talked to said that "normally" when they sell a car, VW gives them two allocations for new cars to order. That was to allow smaller dealerships to grow, IF they can actually move product. Not sure how it works now, though.
I found this on the NYK shipping schedule. Odd that they would stop in Long Beach, then further north to Port Hueneme before heading back down to San Diego.
Font Parallel Rectangle Number Pattern
 

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Blue ProS RWD is in my garage! Only took 187 days.
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Two extra days to get to San Diego, ok fine, I can live with that. Maybe its just a way to keep the engines running while waiting for a berth? Even though much of the port congestion from a few months ago is gone, there's no way they are steaming right into Long Beach and getting out in a single day.
 

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Dont understand how these timelines work. Port of Long Beach has like a 18 day wait now?
Again, no expert here but I think the back up mostly pertained to container ships. The trucker and chassis shortage had ships waiting for days / weeks because there was simply no place to put the containers. NYK has a berth with a bunch of space to park cars. I am cautiously optimistic that the ship will be there long enough for them to drive cars off the ship and into those parking places and leaving as soon as possible. Grand Corona moored early this morning but was outta there and on its way to Korea by 1pm.
 

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Again, no expert here but I think the back up mostly pertained to container ships. The trucker and chassis shortage had ships waiting for days / weeks because there was simply no place to put the containers. NYK has a berth with a bunch of space to park cars. I am cautiously optimistic that the ship will be there long enough for them to drive cars off the ship and into those parking places and leaving as soon as possible. Grand Corona moored early this morning but was outta there and on its way to Korea by 1pm.
Very good. Thanks for the lesson.

vw replied and said nothing of substance on any of my questions.

so. Where’s my elephant!
 

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Two extra days to get to San Diego, ok fine, I can live with that. Maybe its just a way to keep the engines running while waiting for a berth? Even though much of the port congestion from a few months ago is gone, there's no way they are steaming right into Long Beach and getting out in a single day.
So how is it playing out? Your boat left long beach. But now it says its heading to Japan? Thought it was supposed to goto San Diego now? Did it drop your cargo in LA/Long Beach?
 

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So how is it playing out? Your boat left long beach. But now it says its heading to Japan? Thought it was supposed to goto San Diego now? Did it drop your cargo in LA/Long Beach?
The itinerary changed and they ended up going to San Diego first where they dropped off 253 ID.4's and a bunch of Audi's. From there Port Hueneme where BMW's were unloaded among various equipment and finally Long Beach. However, they only dropped off Toyota's in Long Beach as well as somebody's 1989 Vanagon. It appears Eric Nay's ID is in San Diego. No idea why my wheel took less than 24 hours to update while his took several days longer.
 

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Blue ProS RWD is in my garage! Only took 187 days.
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@jstwannaknow has it right, I believe. I'm at 30-2, but my wheel is still at "#4 - Leaving the factory". 30-2 says Customs hold, so I'm now in the waiting game. I feel like my wife is due any day now, but you just never know when exactly it will happen! LOL
 
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