EV's Not-so-little Dirty Secret(s)
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I think his main point is that EVs aren't going to hit ICE volume numbers anytime soon and this has to do with limitations of raw materials (this is where his expertise lies - geopolitics/trade/demographics). In the medium term, yes, but not in the short term. As far as his rant regarding Tesla - can't say I disagree with his thesis.
that part I agree with. prices need to come down to ICE-level prices before we get the widespread adoption.
Currently the sale of new ICE vehicles is forbidden after 2030 in Europe. It's going to be interesting to see if we can make that transition that fast.
But the whole carbon footprint thing is just nonsense, and the war in Ukraine aint going to last a decade either.
Currently the sale of new ICE vehicles is forbidden after 2030 in Europe. It's going to be interesting to see if we can make that transition that fast.
But the whole carbon footprint thing is just nonsense, and the war in Ukraine aint going to last a decade either.
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Thanks for the correction, confused a local country rule with the EU-wide rule.
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With a few manufacturers voluntarily dropping ICE before that. Volvo 2030, Volkswagen cutting ICE lineup by 60 % by 2030, Mercedes has the goal of dropping ICE 2030... No one wants to be the last one selling a product with little value to retain.
Mike I'm curious why you posted this?
I had to look this guy up. No idea who he is. Seems to be a big self promoter, linked to a Joe Rogan podcast, mentions in what are regarded as politically-affiliated, anti-EV "news" sites, oil trade publications which may not be legit, similar rants against solar power, mentioned as a consultant to "energy companies," etc.
What am I missing? Who is he? He clearly got a lot of things about EVs wrong in this video, wrong about Tesla, about Tesla owners, wrong about CO² generation from production. He claims to be a geopolitical expert but I'm not seeing that entering much into this other than the Russia/China/Congo minerals rant.
So I'm curious what you think of him / know of him, and what your opinion is of his opinion? Should he be considered and why?
I had to look this guy up. No idea who he is. Seems to be a big self promoter, linked to a Joe Rogan podcast, mentions in what are regarded as politically-affiliated, anti-EV "news" sites, oil trade publications which may not be legit, similar rants against solar power, mentioned as a consultant to "energy companies," etc.
What am I missing? Who is he? He clearly got a lot of things about EVs wrong in this video, wrong about Tesla, about Tesla owners, wrong about CO² generation from production. He claims to be a geopolitical expert but I'm not seeing that entering much into this other than the Russia/China/Congo minerals rant.
So I'm curious what you think of him / know of him, and what your opinion is of his opinion? Should he be considered and why?
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In Belgium you can no longer register new cars with combustion engines from 2027. From 2030 you may no longer resell your car with a combustion engine, but more may still be driven. However, from 2031 you will no longer be allowed to drive into large cities.
I don't see a future where EV cars will become cheaper, but where fewer people will own their own car. Shared cars and more extensive public transport will be expanded. Of course in vast areas like in the US this will be impossible
I don't see a future where EV cars will become cheaper, but where fewer people will own their own car. Shared cars and more extensive public transport will be expanded. Of course in vast areas like in the US this will be impossible
Peter Zeihan wrote a book recently about the end of geopolitics (June 2022), but his first appearance of note was The Accidental Superpower.
I've listened to a bunch of his podcasts & points on YouTube. His points align with much of the predictions of the rise & fall of geopolitics after the cold war. While I tend to agree with his opinions on motivators of geopolitical issues coupled with industry & natural resources coupled with population rises & declines, he is wrong on some & right on other items in this video he uploaded the other day. Where he is right about EV manufacturing issues, his reasoning are a little off.
He is a really heavy dose of General X, that has succeeded against the odds & is living comfortably (himself). And in true GenX fashion, he doesn't care about the opinions of Boomers or Millennials. (I hear him, but I'm not a disciple)
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This is already happening in Norway - after successfully transitioning their auto sales to majority EV, they are now reducing EV incentives (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ght-tax-and-bringing-back-the-vat-200685.html) and incentivizing public transit, e-bikes, etc… (I went to Norway to see an electric vehicle paradise, but I found something more surprising)
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This is what I mean and took Norway as an example.
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I have been commuting to work in an Electric Vehicle for the last 15 years (subway train) and I'm a big fan of public transit. But outside of a few metro areas in the USA, public transit does not work well for us not to depend on cars. I think we need to be more like Norway but it may be harder for us to get there and in rural areas of the USA, having a car will still be needed by many folks.
I listened to about one half of Peter Zeihan's rant. The first thing I noticed, listen to the beginning if you don't believe me, is that he said "electronic" vehicles. That is a major "tell" that he doesn't know what he is talking about. None of his "facts" are wholly true and many are just plain false.
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I don’t think anyone really misses the fact that rural areas have different transportation needs.
But think of it this way: More than 2/3rds of the US population lives in urban areas. If we can break car dependence in urban areas, that will greatly reduce demand for vehicles, which in turn reduces demand for road materials in favor of more efficient land use which improves local revenues while lowering infrastructure costs.
This improves the budgets at not just the city level, but the state level as well (and the federal to some extent when it comes to interstates). So less tax burden at the state level paying for car infrastructure to support the suburban/urban commute, especially in regions that don’t toll highways heavily. It means fewer cars are needed (i.e. reducing demand) on a resource needed for decarbonization (lithium batteries), which should help that supply go to where it’s needed more easily. It should also reduce demand on DCFC infrastructure and make that faster and easier to deploy/maintain in the long run.
Fixing cities is a win-win in the long run, IMO. Yes, we can’t urbanize the rural countryside, but I don’t think anyone’s saying we should. But rather by fixing urban areas, it addresses issues that indirectly impacts rural folks as well due to resources and money being poured into maintaining some of the most expensive infrastructure that exists today. If you aren’t pouring almost all your lithium batteries into EVs running commutes that could be public transit, couldn’t those batteries be getting used in ways that help rural communities decarbonize?
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I'm a fan of Peter Zeihan and have learned a lot about geopolitics from him. I've listened to a few of his books and his 2014 book predicted the war between Russia and Ukraine. I think he's a good resource for learning about global politics and demographics. But he seems to get EVs really wrong, as evidenced by some of his statements in this video. I'm not sure why he gets this so wrong, hopefully he will get better informed in the future.
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Expertise in one area doesn't automatically apply to another, even related, area. I've got both a EE and SE background by education, but I've been in the software side so long that jumping back into EE for me is mostly only good for embarrassing myself outside of hobbyist circles. And even on the software side, there's enough variety that you wouldn't want me giving a talk about the latest game engine tech.
Modern society requires us to be specialized as things grow increasingly complex if we want to be good at our trade. The "jack of all trades" type is never going to be as well informed as a specialist in any field, and the specialist is going to be practically worthless in other areas when complexity is involved without a lot of training.
Things would be a lot easier for some folks if they understood this, rather than letting their ego convince them that because they can do or understand X really well, they either can do Y really well too, or already understand it.
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The Dunning-Kruger effect in action
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A variation on it, but essentially that.The Dunning-Kruger effect in action
Why? What's really important is the cost to own spread over 100,000 miles, isn't it? A more expensive EV can actually be cheaper to own and drive over it's lifetime and once people finally figure that out, many more will happily pay a bit more to move to an EV which is going to save them money in the long run
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