[PANZERidIV]

I'm a fan of Peter Zeihan and have learned a lot about geopolitics from him. I've listened to a few of his books and his 2014 book predicted the war between Russia and Ukraine. I think he's a good resource for learning about global politics and demographics. But he seems to get EVs really wrong, as evidenced by some of his statements in this video. I'm not sure why he gets this so wrong, hopefully he will get better informed in the future.

So Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and his 2014 book “predicated” it? That is not how “learning” works for me. But as far as EV’s go anyone who is against them has a lot to learn!

 

[Nai3t]

Why? What's really important is the cost to own spread over 100,000 miles, isn't it? A more expensive EV can actually be cheaper to own and drive over it's lifetime and once people finally figure that out, many more will happily pay a bit more to move to an EV which is going to save them money in the long run

Because many buyers only look at the monthly nut that the salesman jots into the 4-square, ignoring price, interest, term, insurance, fuel, and maintenance. As a whole we've proven to be pretty bad at considering TCO. That's not speaking for all, just generally. And it's a big "general population" that needs to be targeted.

 

[micah68]

So Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and his 2014 book “predicated” it? That is not how “learning” works for me. But as far as EV’s go anyone who is against them has a lot to learn!

Factors that Predicted the Russian-Ukraine Crisis in 2014

Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in 2014 based on these demographic and geographical factors.

www.speakers.ca

 

[Nycturne]

Why? What's really important is the cost to own spread over 100,000 miles, isn't it? A more expensive EV can actually be cheaper to own and drive over it's lifetime and once people finally figure that out, many more will happily pay a bit more to move to an EV which is going to save them money in the long run

This reminds me a bit of a Terry Pratchet quote from one of his books:

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

Are folks "penny-wise, pound-foolish" out of necessity or ignorance? If someone can't afford to carry the up-front cost of an EV (too large a loan for example), they don't get to take advantage of the long-term benefits that ultimately make it cheaper.

The tax credit situation also applies. I need to be well off enough to have the tax liability to get the benefit. On top of being able to carry up to 7500$ of debt (or a hole in my account) until tax season.

 

[Nai3t]

Are folks "penny-wise, pound-foolish" out of necessity or ignorance? If someone can't afford to carry the up-front cost of an EV (too large a loan for example), they don't get to take advantage of the long-term benefits that ultimately make it cheaper.

Good point. However cost to fuel and insurance are both up-front costs in the same sense that a car payment is up-front. And maintenance costs aren't that that far behind, especially if oil and filter changes are taken into account.

We're not necessarily at parity yet, but in some segments we're pretty dang close.

 

[Nycturne]

Good point. However cost to fuel and insurance are both up-front costs in the same sense that a car payment is up-front. And maintenance costs aren't that that far behind, especially if oil and filter changes are taken into account.

We're not necessarily at parity yet, but in some segments we're pretty dang close.

Up-front in the sense that if I can't cover the OTD price on the car, I don't get the car. And with a car, you also have the banks saying what you can and can't afford. If you can buy an ID.4 with cash to keep banks out of the transaction, you aren't the type of car buyer I'm talking about.

 

[Nai3t]

Right, but generally banks will approve a cash-strapped buyer for more car than they can reasonably afford, ignoring the reality they have gas and insurance to pay, in addition to rent, food, utilities, etc. We see this time and time again – no bank approval is ever realistic in that regard.

In other words, many buyers have financial room to make this choice with respect to their budget, car payment, and monthly outlay.

 

[kenchills]

Right, but generally banks will approve a cash-strapped buyer for more car than they can reasonably afford, ignoring the reality they have gas and insurance to pay, in addition to rent, food, utilities, etc. We see this time and time again – no bank approval is ever realistic in that regard.

In other words, many buyers have financial room to make this choice with respect to their budget, car payment, and monthly outlay.

I believe they coined this type of buyer behavior the "Tesla Stretch"?
(where a buyer takes on a loan/payment that is outside their normal financial capability, in order to reap the benefits, financial and otherwise, of owning an EV.)
Nowadays couldn't this behavior be applied to many new EV's, not just Teslas?

 

[Nai3t]

I've never heard that term, but I remember being out if high school, either the summer before college or after my first year, meager part time income (maybe just after I joined the Reserves?), and a Ford dealer approved me for a ridiculous loan for a speced-out RangerI knew I couldn't realistically pay. No, I didn't follow through. And they had to have known I couldn't, either, but it didn't stop them.