[ID4what]

I've seen some speculation (both on here and elsewhere) that the U.S. price will drop in 2022 once production in Tennessee gets going. Could people share their estimated drop in price and level of confidence?

I've put down the initial deposit on an AWD Pro, but I live in a cold state and if the 2022 model is likely to have a heat pump and/or a lower price, I will cram my family into our eGolf for another year.

 

[Geo]

I'm sure the price will drop at some point. With US, production, VW would probably save on shipping and import fees, minimum. But will it drop right away? Who knows. You might also be able to get year-end discounts in December if anything is left over at the dealers. Or wait three years and get an off-lease. But it's all a gamble. Nobody can say for sure.

Let's pull a number out of thin air and say it is $2k cheaper the middle of next year. That would be a little over $100/month to get it now vs then. For me, it would be worth paying that small premium to get it now. But everyone is different.

 

[sprylo]

Could people share their estimated drop in price and level of confidence?

VWoA had this to say back in September when the ID.4 was unveiled:

Beginning in 2022, the ID.4 will be produced locally in the U.S. at the Volkswagen Chattanooga Assembly Plant. Volkswagen anticipates investing a further $800 million in the Chattanooga factory for the production of electric vehicles, in addition to the more than $2.6 billion that VW has invested in the area. The factory currently has about 3,800 direct employees. Once production starts in the U.S., Volkswagen plans on offering a localized version of the ID.4 priced around $35,000.

So $5K cheaper. What you'll actually get for that $35K is left to be seen.

 

[ixlr08]

I saw some discussions that the $35K US ID.4 would have the smaller battery. Not sure what else would change.

 

[Huey52]

There are two battery options in Europe and it is anticipated that the smaller one will be introduced in the USA is 2022 and that model will therefore be somewhat less expensive.

But apple-to-apples new vehicles rarely get less expensive over time, as inflation is almost always with us.

 

[Reeler]

I think they will go with tons of different options packages with the US model. Easier to support that without a long ship trip in the middle. That will provide different price points, but not much cheaper is my guess.

Given what the LEAF and Bolt sell for, I would not expect the MSRP to go down. I think with the competition from Nissan and Hyundai though and initial demand met, dealers will discount. I think by this time next year, we will see the beginning of price erosion.

 

[sprylo]

I think they will go with tons of different options packages with the US model. Easier to support that without a long ship trip in the middle. That will provide different price points, but not much cheaper is my guess.

As with all things, you never know when it comes to Volkswagen. VWoA has gone overboard with the trim levels on the Atlas & Cross Sport (each with 8 trim levels, 2 engines, and 2 drivetrains, plus a few factory options). The outgoing Golf is at the other extreme with just one trim level and no factory options. The Tiguan and Jetta are more typical at 5 trims. The current ID.4 order guide lists 5, but one is a special edition and two are just powertrain variations that wouldn't be listed separately on the other models, so essentially just two trims: Pro and Pro S.

If I were to guess, I'd say we'll see something like this when the Chattanooga models arrive:

ID.4 (RWD only) - New cheaper base model. Smaller battery, non-power seats, no Travel Assist, no Qi charger, no auto-dimming rearview mirror.
ID.4 Pro (RWD & AWD) - Like existing model, with some minor "new model year" tweaks.
ID.4 Pro S (RWD & AWD) - Again, like the existing model, but maybe with heat pump, premium audio
ID.4 Max (RWD & AWD) - New higher trim adds HUD, heat pump, premium audio, heated windshield, 3-zone climate, Area View camera, etc.

Trailer hitch becomes a factory option available on Pro, Pro S, and Max. Gradient package goes away, with some (or all) of those features now standard on the Max trim level. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of this stuff (HUD, AreaView) in a separate "with Technology" trim level variant. Maybe the heat pump, heated windshield, and new heated rear seats show up in a Cold Weather package. My guess is that when the ID.4 GLX arrives, it will be sold as a separate model, like the GTI and GLI, with two trim levels (the top one being called "Autobahn").

All of this probably depends on how well the existing German-built model is selling when it's time to make these decisions. Models that sell well tend to be available in more trim levels.

 

[ID4what]

Thanks for the responses everyone. It makes sense that even if there is a cheaper model, there are likely to be features shaved off to get there, what with no free lunches and all.
The other thing I am monitoring w/r/t buying this year vs. waiting is the speculation around whether the Biden admin will introduce an income limit for the tax credit. E.g. this article quotes the tax policy center as suggesting he might introduce a $250k income limit.