Add Yours: VW ID. Buzz Owner's Registry

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2459 Views 11 Replies 6 Participants Last post by JTL, Dec 20, 2020

JTL

Discussion Starter · Dec 19, 2020

Unless you already have the older tech. This is what bothers me about being an early adopter. Lighter EV's because you don't need the battery cage, much longer range and perhaps cheaper. I hate to wait but this is the information that gives me pause because the older tech is not going to be worth much.

https://autos.yahoo.com/toyota-unveil-solid-state-battery-140000969.html

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/11/solid-state-batteries-theyre-everywhere-theyre-everywhere/

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TPG

· #2 · Dec 20, 2020

Solid state batteries will not be in cars until about 2025. Do you need a car now, and do current ones meet your requirements?
I would personally hesitate to buy a Toyota again given the poor experiences I have had with my 2013 RAV4EV. Poorly engineered, all the Tesla stuff breaks, and very expensive to fix. Toyota dealers don't like working on them.

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WH4T4

· #3 · Dec 20, 2020

If you always hold off buying a car because you expect there will soon be new technology then you will never buy a car. Leasing - although it’s a more expensive way to “own” a car - might be your solution.

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ChristophW

· #4 · Dec 20, 2020

It’s like buying computers, a better one is always right around the corner. Like @TPG asks, do you need a car now and do current EVs meet your requirements?

Me, I’ve been waiting for a sub-$45k EV that is not a sedan and is super versatile, and has 250 miles or better range. The ID.4 has all that, so now is the time.

As in all fast moving fields, the cars available in 2023 will be much better, and the ones available in 2025 better still. But in the meantime I will already have been driving around in a fun and eminently useful EV for years. There’s no time like today.

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TT97

· #5 · Dec 20, 2020

If you are waiting for solid state batteries, you can probably lease two cars before they are commercially available (or save your money as solid state batteries will be extremely expensive when they are first available). I bought stock in Quantum Scape so hoping the technology develops quickly, but for now, there's not even a phone or laptop using solid state batteries.

By the time there will be a car with a viable solid state solution, I'm sure there will be some other new technology just around the corner to wait for.

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JTL

Discussion Starter · #6 · Dec 20, 2020

Good points, but for those of you who think that SS batteries won't be available until years in the future I think you are wrong. To wit:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/11/solid-state-batteries-theyre-everywhere-theyre-everywhere/
To me the interesting thing pointed out in the article is that the "new" technology can be manufactured on existing equipment. That alone should help bring the product to market much fast than otherwise would be the case. Unlike some changes that can or should happen this one is very important for the auto industry in that it makes the EV a much more desirable product. In my opinion the two biggest obstacles to EV's going mainstream is range and price and SS batteries address both of those. I am very aware that technology is always advancing and it will be the case with EV's as well, however the SS battery is a huge improvement and one that could have a significant effect on the price of an older tech EV.

I don't need a new vehicle but I want an EV so I have the option of waiting. It will be interesting to see how the sales of the ID4 and the MME look next year.

I have never leased or financed a car in my almost 60 years of .car ownership. Leasing is only more expensive if the vehicle holds value and that is the big question with the ID4 and the MME (I mention both cars because I like both of them). Looks like I will be able to test drive a MME before the ID4.

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ted99

· #7 · Dec 20, 2020

Recent history says that Leasing has been the cheaper alternative if you are going to change cars in 3 years. EV's have been following a Moore's Law pattern with range--close to doubling in 3 years--with consequent steep depreciation. If the manufacturer set a high residual value, as BMW did with the i3 in the first year, leasing was a super way to go. It appears that VW is setting a residual value for the ID.4 closer to real expectations so a lease is not the automatic choice. As others have pointed out, if the ID.4 meets your needs and you plan on keeping it for 5 years, or more; buy it. If you have the luxury of waiting, in 3 years the nominal range will be around 500 miles. I don't think any of us with an ID.4 pre-order are thinking in purely financial terms. If we were, we'd lease a Tiguan or Golf and use the savings over an ID.4 to pay for 3 years of petrol--THEN buy an EV.

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TT97

· #8 · Dec 20, 2020

JTL said:
Good points, but for those of you who think that SS batteries won't be available until years in the future I think you are wrong. To wit:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/11/solid-state-batteries-theyre-everywhere-theyre-everywhere/
To me the interesting thing pointed out in the article is that the "new" technology can be manufactured on existing equipment. That alone should help bring the product to market much fast than otherwise would be the case. Unlike some changes that can or should happen this one is very important for the auto industry in that it makes the EV a much more desirable product. In my opinion the two biggest obstacles to EV's going mainstream is range and price and SS batteries address both of those. I am very aware that technology is always advancing and it will be the case with EV's as well, however the SS battery is a huge improvement and one that could have a significant effect on the price of an older tech EV.

I don't need a new vehicle but I want an EV so I have the option of waiting. It will be interesting to see how the sales of the ID4 and the MME look next year.

I have never leased or financed a car in my almost 60 years of .car ownership. Leasing is only more expensive if the vehicle holds value and that is the big question with the ID4 and the MME (I mention both cars because I like both of them). Looks like I will be able to test drive a MME before the ID4.

Sorry, but where in the article did you see they are imminent? Each example has the battery not ready until end of '21 or '22 - and that is just a one-off, not even remotely close to production ready capacity. It will be years after that before it would make it to a production car.

Here is the Investor Presentation for QuantumScape from September when they did the reverse merger:

kcac-ex993_61.pptx.htm

www.sec.gov

Page 28 shows their projected capacity and revenue (their entire business model is solid state batteries). They don't show any significant production of batteries until 2027. (QS & VW have a JV so likely the QS batteries will end up in the ID vehicles).

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JTL

Discussion Starter · #9 · Dec 20, 2020

ted99 said:
Recent history says that Leasing has been the cheaper alternative if you are going to change cars in 3 years. EV's have been following a Moore's Law pattern with range--close to doubling in 3 years--with consequent steep depreciation. If the manufacturer set a high residual value, as BMW did with the i3 in the first year, leasing was a super way to go. It appears that VW is setting a residual value for the ID.4 closer to real expectations so a lease is not the automatic choice. As others have pointed out, if the ID.4 meets your needs and you plan on keeping it for 5 years, or more; buy it. If you have the luxury of waiting, in 3 years the nominal range will be around 500 miles. I don't think any of us with an ID.4 pre-order are thinking in purely financial terms. If we were, we'd lease a Tiguan or Golf and use the savings over an ID.4 to pay for 3 years of petrol--THEN buy an EV.

Everyone probably has their reasons or purchasing an EV. For me I like the concept but I don't think I am an "early adopter" so I will probably wait for a couple of years and see where the dust settles. I have not seen the residual % for the ID4 but I tried to back into it using available data. My conclusion was it wasn't horrible nor was it a great deal. Ford wasn't all that good and rumor was that unlike the ID4 they were not passing the Fed tax credit they also may be offering cash if you take there financing. If so, depending on the term, a buyer may be able to get a $2500 discount, keep the tax credit and payoff the loan after a couple of months. Pure speculation at this point.

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JTL

Discussion Starter · #10 · Dec 20, 2020

TT97 said:
Sorry, but where in the article did you see they are imminent? Each example has the battery not ready until end of '21 or '22 - and that is just a one-off, not even remotely close to production ready capacity. It will be years after that before it would make it to a production car.

Here is the Investor Presentation for QuantumScape from September when they did the reverse merger:

kcac-ex993_61.pptx.htm

www.sec.gov

Page 28 shows their projected capacity and revenue (their entire business model is solid state batteries). They don't show any significant production of batteries until 2027. (QS & VW have a JV so likely the QS batteries will end up in the ID vehicles).

I don't recall saying imminent. What I did say they will be available a lot sooner than you think. "So far this week — and it’s only Friday — there are announcements from Ford, BMW, Toyota, and Solid Power claiming solid state battery technology is just around the corner." May be a couple of years away which in nothing in the scheme of things. With the amount of interest and obvious benefits I think there will be a big push to get them first to market. The fact that they can be produced on existing equipment makes the process faster and easier. Anyway we are all entitled to our own opinions.

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TT97

· #11 · Dec 20, 2020

JTL said:
I don't recall saying imminent. What I did say they will be available a lot sooner than you think. "So far this week — and it’s only Friday — there are announcements from Ford, BMW, Toyota, and Solid Power claiming solid state battery technology is just around the corner." May be a couple of years away which in nothing in the scheme of things. With the amount of interest and obvious benefits I think there will be a big push to get them first to market. The fact that they can be produced on existing equipment makes the process faster and easier. Anyway we are all entitled to our own opinions.

I wasn't trying to be insulting or rude, I'm sorry if you interpreted that way. In the automotive world, a couple years away is "imminent." But also, something just around the corner means 5+ years away - just think back of when VW introduce the ID line or when they first started showcasing the ID Buzz that is still a couple years away. Naturally, it's your money and it's up to you do decide how you want to spend it but if you are waiting for the next new technology, there will always be another new technology just around the corner worth waiting for.

As far as leasing and the Mach-E, Ford is doing a balloon payment loan instead of leasing ("Ford Options"). The key difference is that you own the vehicle and not Ford Credit. At the end of the loan, you can either make the balloon payment or Ford will accept the vehicle as the balloon payment (you would transfer ownership back to Ford).

As you are the owner of the vehicle, you are entitled to the Federal Credit and not Ford so Ford can not pass along the credit as they do not get it. The disadvantage of this is that you need to wait to file to be able to get the credit and you need to know you can qualify for the entire amount; the advantage is that you are guaranteed you are getting 100% of the credit eligible.

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JTL

Discussion Starter · #12 · Dec 20, 2020

TT97 said:
I wasn't trying to be insulting or rude, I'm sorry if you interpreted that way. In the automotive world, a couple years away is "imminent." But also, something just around the corner means 5+ years away - just think back of when VW introduce the ID line or when they first started showcasing the ID Buzz that is still a couple years away. Naturally, it's your money and it's up to you do decide how you want to spend it but if you are waiting for the next new technology, there will always be another new technology just around the corner worth waiting for.

As far as leasing and the Mach-E, Ford is doing a balloon payment loan instead of leasing ("Ford Options"). The key difference is that you own the vehicle and not Ford Credit. At the end of the loan, you can either make the balloon payment or Ford will accept the vehicle as the balloon payment (you would transfer ownership back to Ford).

As you are the owner of the vehicle, you are entitled to the Federal Credit and not Ford so Ford can not pass along the credit as they do not get it. The disadvantage of this is that you need to wait to file to be able to get the credit and you need to know you can qualify for the entire amount; the advantage is that you are guaranteed you are getting 100% of the credit eligible.

No issues. I do remember the balloon payment option. I can use the tax credit immediately because I do estimated taxes.

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