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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Assuming you have good credit but can not take full advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit.
Under leasing VW takes that tax credit and applies it in a sense against the lease.
Will a iD4 cost more in total if you buy it out at end of lease as opposed to a regular purchase up front with financing through VW?
 

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The people who leased the BMW i3 in 2014 made out like bandits when the i3 resale dropped to 25% of the msrp after 3 years.
 

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I plan to lease, assuming VW will apply the $7500 in order to reduce monthly payments. Mileage for me is not a big issue, And after a 3 year lease expires there will be a number of additional EVs on the road to consider.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
2015 I 0$ down leased a Ford C-Max plug in cuz I figured it woukd have a very low resale value after 3 years. I turned it in. 2018 I 0$ down lesed a 2017 Focus EV. Now Carvana will buy it from me at a value higher then Ford thought it would be worth after 3 years.
 

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If the main battery had a shorter longevity I would lean to lease myself, however given the 8-year warranty I'll more likely buy.

The tax credit is of course on your 2020 (or more likely 2021) filed Fed taxes but I hear what you're saying about lowering the total computed lease-cost to facilitate smaller monthly payments, if they would volunteer to do that?

And yes, we're just at the start of a flood of competing pure EV's with comparable aesthetics and performance, so still considering ....

I plan to lease, assuming VW will apply the $7500 in order to reduce monthly payments. Mileage for me is not a big issue, And after a 3 year lease expires there will be a number of additional EVs on the road to consider.
 

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Being new to the EV world, I also plan to lease. Yes, it will be more expensive than a straight purchase, but you are protected from technology changes, battery range, EV depreciation, potential reliability issues, market acceptance, and have the ability to move to the latest and greatest after three years. Here is an attachment that someone put on the forum a few weeks ago with potential leasing detail.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
My concern in 3.5 years the federal tax credit will be gone and the cost of a similar EV will not be $7,500 cheaper. Plus EV buy/lease incentive programs from states will be gone. It's sort of happening in CA already.
 

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Lets do the simple arithmetic, here. It's an FE. Total payments plus "down payment" and disposition fee are $27,674. If I purchase, in TX, I get a $2000 "grant", after taxes, plus the $7500 Fed TC, for a pre-fees and sales tax cost of $33,500. If the interest foregone is 2% (4 x what I'm currently getting on my bank savings), add another $1800 for a total cost to own of about $31,500. If I had leased, I would have paid $27,674. So, if the ID4 is worth at least $3326 at the end of 3 years, I break even. If it's worth more than $3326, I'm ahead. Conclusion: Banks and Lawyers are always the winners.
 

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@ted99 FE monthly payments = $16,020 + $3,579 down + $395 disposition fee = $19,994. Of course with lease or purchase there will be tax, title, license, options, dealer fees with lease or purchase. I don't understand the $27,674 number stated above.
 

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You are right. I didn't clear a previous number from my calculator. The break-even number should have been $15, 801. Since the VW payment estimator was "before TTL&D", I didn't add them to the purchase price either for an equal basis for comparison. So, of course an actual deal will have somewhat different numbers. Lease looks a lot better with the correct calculation. If you lease, you are betting that 3-yr re-sale price of the 2021 iD4 will be less than $15,801 to not "loose" money. Higher and you made a bad bet. That's a residual of 36%. How does that compare to other deals? My 2014 BMW i3 had a residual of about 25% of MSRP when I traded it after 3 years. The people that leased a 2014 i3 were offered residuals of about 50% by BMW and reduction of the capitol cost by the $7500 TC. They made out like bandits compared to those like me that bought. Some ICE cars see residuals closer to 50% after 3 years. What is it for a Golf? So, if you are leasing because you are hedging your bets on residual value that's one thing. If you are leasing to reduce the monthly cost, that's another thing. Using the correct numbers, my opinion is that leasing a first-year iD4 is a smart bet if you are going to walk away after 3 years. If you expect to keep the vehicle, it's a bad bet (as is the leasing of almost any vehicle). Leasing is a really good idea if a manufacturer is propping up the residuals to gain sales, as BMW did with the initial release of the i3 and what appears to be the case for Bolt's now. From the looks of the referenced deal, VW not so much. So, I don't think a lease on the described terms is a "no brainer" for all cases. It is one where one is calculating how much residual value risk one is going to take. If, on the other hand, you are leasing to reduce monthly payments, you are in a different game.
 

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On the ID.4 Pro at $44,495, the VW Reservation page is quoting $459 per month with #3,437 down for 36 months. The numbers quoted above are probably close to what we will see. Residual values are key.
 

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I’m really struggling with my concern over the depreciation hit one takes when buying a new EV. I typically keep my vehicles 7-8 years but I am concerned a FE ID.4 will be worth $4-5k by year 7 due to the expected rapid advancement of batteries.
 

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I’m really struggling with my concern over the depreciation hit one takes when buying a new EV. I typically keep my vehicles 7-8 years but I am concerned a FE ID.4 will be worth $4-5k I’m by year 7 due to the expected rapid advancement of batteries.
I have the same concern and because of that, will most likely lease the vehicle and see what the current value is and market looks like after three years. A lease will definitely be more expensive, but probably worth the piece of mind and flexibility it offers.
 

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So a 2017 GTI SE 4D had an MSRP of $30,995. Mid-range KBB trade-in with 45k miles is about $19,500 (~38%). With the expected flood in this market, 50% might be very generous for an ID.4 (even if well-received in the market)?
 

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One potential variable to consider is if there is a "first movers" lease credit (three months) like the ID.3 early deliveries.
 
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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Ford motor Credit covered my last 4 months of C-Max Energi lease when I got into my 2017 Focus EV in 4/2018 $0 down lease. & Focus was clearance priced since no one was buying. Also see VW disposition fee note below
913
 
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