[VwGBDidtalk]

Anyone have insight into what the 2021 ID4’s might be worth in 6-7 years from now when battery life is waning? And along the same lines, any estimates on what it might cost to replace all batteries when a complete replacement is needed 8-10 years from now?

 

[sirozha]

The competition is Model Y. It’s now gone up to $58,900 as of this morning and the wait times approach 12 months.

The ID.4 will hold its value steady, as the inflation is taking hold. You may not be able to pocket the tax rebate, though, if you resell. You may have to pass the tax rebate on to the buyer (i. e.sell your vehicle for $7,500 less than you bought it for or perhaps for some fraction of $7,500 -depending on the supply and demand). Generally, the price of Model Y increasing helps the ID.4 keep its value. But then, what is value? If the currency is devaluing and the price of the ID.4 staying the same, you are actually losing the value.

 

[Nai3t]

Oooh, you'll need to set your crystal ball to Expert Mode for this one.

Not only is this horribly overvalued used car market a skewed indicator to make any future value judgement, but Tesla is an enigma to start with.

Shoot, two years ago I bought a 2 year old BMW i3 for $24k, not quite but Sonia half of its $54k sticker.

I think the ID.4 will fare better, because it's not quirky and has a "full size" appeal (both battery and physical size). But 6 years out? $20k? Maybe?

 

[Manybees]

There's not enough data to make any useful statements about an ID.4's value so far out in the future. It's unpredictable. You just never know what's going to happen. One thing that's relatively certain is that it will lose value, but even that you can't say for certain because the future is... ummm.. unpredictable.

One piece of anecdata I can provide is that 3 years ago (2018), I bought a new VW e-Golf SEL for $32.5k. I got the full $7500 tax credit plus a $2500 state cash rebate. So, final cost was $22.5K after the credit and rebate. In the 3 years and 35,000 miles I've owned it, it has run like a champ, no accidents, no breakdowns, and as far as I can tell, has little to no battery degradation (in any case, there's an 8-year 100,000 mile warranty on the HV battery system). Out of curiosity the other day, I went up to Carvana's web site to see what they'd offer, and their offer came in at $21,800. Back in 2018, I'd have never predicted this. In fact, my brother chided me back then for buying rather than leasing because "in 3 years your car's tech will be outmoded and the car will be worth less than half of what you paid for it." So my takeaway is that you can never tell, so I just try not to overthink things that are out of my control anyway.

 

[Dougie01]

Other factors are the uptake rate of electric cars (and their batteries) over the next few years, and the rollout rate of competitive models from other suppliers, and the development rate of new battery technology.

I would not plan on replacing the battery. If the batteries degrade significantly (a big if), then a car with a nominal 250 mile range degraded way down to 150, even, will still have a perfectly useful range for most local drives. I rented an early Leaf one time that only had a 40 mile range still available, and it worked fine for touring around L.A.

A much bigger question is what will happen to the millions of perfectly good ICE cars sold between now and whenever humans wake up to climate change.

 

[ChristophW]

A much bigger question is what will happen to the millions of perfectly good ICE cars sold between now and whenever humans wake up to climate change.

That will be an interesting scenario for sure. At some point in the not too distant future it will be seriously uncool to buy an ICE vehicle as everyone and their grandmother are switching to EVs, and at that point ICE resale value will drop like a rock. I think that much is quite certain. Will it be in 2025, 2027, 2030? Who knows, but it'll be this decade.
As a corollary, resale value of older EVs will hold up well as demand increases at the expense of ICE.

Beyond that I don't want to make predictions. We are in a period of massive change and turmoil, and extrapolations are almost certainly going to be wrong. But I will say that I bought my ID4 with cash on purpose, and firmly believe my bet will pay off.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

When warranty or Miles exceed threshold....
Most of the future owners should ask themselves.....do i want to buy this EV if some major repairs could cost North of 20k+ for repairs.
Remember that most of the EV makers are trying to sell you new EV and if government keeps throwing people tax money to convince you to buy EV vs ICE....EV makers they will not care about expired warranty and people who have to pay out his/her pocket for major repairs.
Any EV that is out of warranty or above miles to be still under warranty...

Could easily cost you for any minor (not major) repairs inside of HV battery just in labor over 10k+ dollars.
Aftermarket shops that will be popping up in near future will not give you quality or something that will justify to throw 10-15k+ on EV that has no warranty anymore and will have with time problems with propulsion units....motor inverters and other expensive electronics.
So people who are cashing on resale values some times in the future will be lucky until second hand owners figure out what Is going to cost them when warranty is gone.
In directions how EV is going it will make many 2nd hand owners with bad outcomes.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

That will be an interesting scenario for sure. At some point in the not too distant future it will be seriously uncool to buy an ICE vehicle as everyone and their grandmother are switching to EVs, and at that point ICE resale value will drop like a rock. I think that much is quite certain. Will it be in 2025, 2027, 2030? Who knows, but it'll be this decade.
As a corollary, resale value of older EVs will hold up well as demand increases at the expense of ICE.

Beyond that I don't want to make predictions. We are in a period of massive change and turmoil, and extrapolations are almost certainly going to be wrong. But I will say that I bought my ID4 with cash on purpose, and firmly believe my bet will pay off.

I will disagree with you ICE dropping like rock in future....they will actually be more expensive than EV for next 20 years.
And after 3 years ID4 Pro S will be if you still have low miles around 20k dollars or less.
And once Chinese EV makers come to the market it will be even more drop on EV resale values. And could easily cost him more than 20k+ dollars by time he is done with loan and he gets repairs out of warranty
Only way to make EV sustainable is to design battery pack that are easy to work on. But this would make EV makers shooting themselves in the foot...because for as long Government's are involved throwing people tax money to buy EV ...EV makers will do whatever is possible to keep EV prices inflated and try to cashout on second life battery modules as battery storages.
How slow are some policy makers in some countries it will not help 2nd hand owners at all.
And budget oriented people who shop for new car will most likely when figure out all the risks of owning used EV go for ICE.
Mark my words....I'm not kidding you here.
Start reading some stories with 2nd hand owners that still have loan and bought (example Tesla that is out of warranty and repair is way more than what they start the loan with).
So try to imagine yourself in his shoes.
Government's should spend money on fast DC charger infrastructure and helping independent shops that will work and repair EV out of warranty without big cost for 2nd hand owners.
Helping people who can afford new EV and getting them discounts to pay even less for taxes are not going to help 95% people that just can't afford buying new cars.
And low cost EV offering will be nothing more but grocery getters.....and many families will have no need for 2 cars in the family one for groceries and one for long trips.
I'm not against EV future....but how it is pushed it will have a lot of resistance from many ordinary people who actually trying to buy new house that is more important than being seen in cool EV on the road.

 

[Mike Bouck]

The ID.4 is a "world car" as well as being an MEB platform car. In short, MEB cars will be very well supported in coming years due to the sheer number of makes/models built on the same underlying platform. This was one of the reasons why I decided to purchase my ID.4 instead of leasing it - I am confident it will be well supported (e.g. strong aftermarket, replacement parts, repairability, hackability etc.) As far as how this translates to value? No clue - but I'm betting it will hold it's value pretty well.

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

The ID.4 is a "world car" as well as being an MEB platform car. In short, MEB cars will be very well supported in coming years due to the shear numbers of makes/models built on the same underlying platform. This was one of the reasons why I decided to purchase my ID.4 instead of leasing it - I am confident it will be well supported (e.g. strong aftermarket, replacement parts, repairability, hackability etc.) As far as how this translates to value? No clue - but I'm betting it will hold it's value pretty well.

Parts will be reasonable cheap...but labor costs and what it takes for some major repairs will make your head spinning.

 

[VwGBDidtalk]

These responses to post are solid and appreciated! Thanks all, good insights!

 

[Mike Bouck]

Parts will be reasonable cheap...but labor costs and what it takes for some major repairs will make your head spinning.

Time will tell. The Tesla walled garden model translates to a nice buying experience but a fairly horrendous service experience. Depends on how well dealers and third party shops are supported by Volkswagen. I can tell you my dealer has one EV specialist and two more in training so I think Volkswagen knows their success is dependent on, in part, how well these cars are supported.

 

[Don]

Used EV's of any make usually depreciate much quicker than comparable ICE's and once they near the end of their warranty, they really begin to sink like a stone - Nobody wants to get caught with a malfunctioning EV which isn't covered by the warranty and you can't blame them

A new battery in 10 years? Probably half the cost of the car when it was new and then when you drive your 10 year old EV out of the shop with it's new battery, you still couldn't sell it for what you just paid to have the new battery installed

If you're gonna keep it 10 years (like I am) you'd better start out from the very beginning taking excellent care of the battery pack, because for all intents and purposes, replacing it with a new one isn't even an option . . . .

 

[VW TECHNICIAN]

Used EV's of any make usually depreciate much quicker than comparable ICE's and once they near the end of their warranty, they really begin to sink like a stone - Nobody wants to get caught with a malfunctioning EV which isn't covered by the warranty and you can't blame them

A new battery in 10 years? Probably half the cost of the car when it was new and then when you drive your 10 year old EV out of the shop with it's new battery, you still couldn't sell it for what you just paid to have the new battery installed

If you're gonna keep it 10 years (like I am) you'd better start out from the very beginning taking excellent care of the battery pack, because for all intents and purposes, replacing it with a new one isn't even an option . . . .

Buying salvage EV and using it as house backup until your EV is in need of new pack is no problem...considering that you can do it yourself or found someone who will not charge you a lot for labor.
And cost of refurbished pack ( not new by any means) and cost of labor will cost you easily 2X+ the value of 10 years old EV.
And trust me when electric assisted turbos come to ICE markets and more efficient burning cycle for diesel engines that will not need dpf filter at all except urea.....it will be very hard for heavy EV to compete against.
Unless EV moves to mini onboard reactors.
Getting output and energy density to be as light as engine and tank of fuel will not happen any time soon.
But i will enjoy my time working with my Frankenstein project.

 

[Dougie01]

That was the claim when the Honda Insight came out in 2000. "The replacement battery will cost $12,000 and the dealer will charge you a fortune to change it!!!"

Replacement battery with five year warranty and all new cells costs less than $2000, and takes a few hours to replace at home.

 

[donpablopereira]

The ID.4 is a "world car" as well as being an MEB platform car. In short, MEB cars will be very well supported in coming years due to the shear numbers of makes/models built on the same underlying platform. This was one of the reasons why I decided to purchase my ID.4 instead of leasing it - I am confident it will be well supported (e.g. strong aftermarket, replacement parts, repairability, hackability etc.) As far as how this translates to value? No clue - but I'm betting it will hold it's value pretty well.

Buy the AWD not RWD. Much better resale value down the road.

 

[Mike Bouck]

Buy the AWD not RWD. Much better resale value down the road.

Agreed and maybe a Zwickau build.

 

[donpablopereira]

Yep and German Built even better. Tennessee non-union shop with unhappy workers never a good thing.

 

[Mike Bouck]

Yep and German Built even better. Tennessee non-union shop with unhappy workers never a good thing.

I'm sure Chattanooga builds will be quality but I'm not sure you want a first year build from a new factory - so maybe in 2023. On the other hand Zwickau has been building MEB cars for two years now and currently has all the engineering/training attention.

 

[voxel]

The competition is Model Y. It’s now gone up to $58,900 as of this morning and the wait times approach 12 months.

The ID.4 will hold its value steady, as the inflation is taking hold. You may not be able to pocket the tax rebate, though, if you resell. You may have to pass the tax rebate on to the buyer (i. e.sell your vehicle for $7,500 less than you bought it for or perhaps for some fraction of $7,500 -depending on the supply and demand). Generally, the price of Model Y increasing helps the ID.4 keep its value. But then, what is value? If the currency is devaluing and the price of the ID.4 staying the same, you are actually losing the value.

This is wrong.

Most EVs depreciate 50% over three years (you can check https://caredge.com/depreciation) which is why lease residuals are so low for the ID.4 and Mach-E. Ford and VW expect massive depreciation and structure their lease to account for this.

Tesla Model 3 Bucks Trend of Electric Vehicles Depreciating Rapidly

The average vehicle coming off a three-year lease has lost 52 percent of its value, but a Model 3 only loses about 10 percent, one study finds.

www.caranddriver.com

The downward pressure is because of the $7500 tax credit which pushes prices downward. Every new model year is “new and improved” and comes with a $7500 discount.

Tesla isn’t eligible for the tax credit and year to year - they don’t make major changes by model year just incremental ones and also back support older model years.

Right now all cars have near non-existent depreciation. My ID.4 did depreciate $3-4K when I sold/traded but the $7500 covered that loss and losses from taxes/fees/dealer-add-ons.