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ID.4 resale values over time

14K views 35 replies 17 participants last post by  apollo3333 
#1 ·
Anyone have insight into what the 2021 ID4’s might be worth in 6-7 years from now when battery life is waning? And along the same lines, any estimates on what it might cost to replace all batteries when a complete replacement is needed 8-10 years from now?
 
#2 ·
The competition is Model Y. It’s now gone up to $58,900 as of this morning and the wait times approach 12 months.

The ID.4 will hold its value steady, as the inflation is taking hold. You may not be able to pocket the tax rebate, though, if you resell. You may have to pass the tax rebate on to the buyer (i. e.sell your vehicle for $7,500 less than you bought it for or perhaps for some fraction of $7,500 -depending on the supply and demand). Generally, the price of Model Y increasing helps the ID.4 keep its value. But then, what is value? If the currency is devaluing and the price of the ID.4 staying the same, you are actually losing the value.
 
#20 ·
The competition is Model Y. It’s now gone up to $58,900 as of this morning and the wait times approach 12 months.

The ID.4 will hold its value steady, as the inflation is taking hold. You may not be able to pocket the tax rebate, though, if you resell. You may have to pass the tax rebate on to the buyer (i. e.sell your vehicle for $7,500 less than you bought it for or perhaps for some fraction of $7,500 -depending on the supply and demand). Generally, the price of Model Y increasing helps the ID.4 keep its value. But then, what is value? If the currency is devaluing and the price of the ID.4 staying the same, you are actually losing the value.
This is wrong.

Most EVs depreciate 50% over three years (you can check https://caredge.com/depreciation) which is why lease residuals are so low for the ID.4 and Mach-E. Ford and VW expect massive depreciation and structure their lease to account for this.


The downward pressure is because of the $7500 tax credit which pushes prices downward. Every new model year is “new and improved” and comes with a $7500 discount.

Tesla isn’t eligible for the tax credit and year to year - they don’t make major changes by model year just incremental ones and also back support older model years.

Right now all cars have near non-existent depreciation. My ID.4 did depreciate $3-4K when I sold/traded but the $7500 covered that loss and losses from taxes/fees/dealer-add-ons.
 
#3 ·
Oooh, you'll need to set your crystal ball to Expert Mode for this one.

Not only is this horribly overvalued used car market a skewed indicator to make any future value judgement, but Tesla is an enigma to start with.

Shoot, two years ago I bought a 2 year old BMW i3 for $24k, not quite but Sonia half of its $54k sticker.

I think the ID.4 will fare better, because it's not quirky and has a "full size" appeal (both battery and physical size). But 6 years out? $20k? Maybe?
 
#4 ·
There's not enough data to make any useful statements about an ID.4's value so far out in the future. It's unpredictable. You just never know what's going to happen. One thing that's relatively certain is that it will lose value, but even that you can't say for certain because the future is... ummm.. unpredictable.

One piece of anecdata I can provide is that 3 years ago (2018), I bought a new VW e-Golf SEL for $32.5k. I got the full $7500 tax credit plus a $2500 state cash rebate. So, final cost was $22.5K after the credit and rebate. In the 3 years and 35,000 miles I've owned it, it has run like a champ, no accidents, no breakdowns, and as far as I can tell, has little to no battery degradation (in any case, there's an 8-year 100,000 mile warranty on the HV battery system). Out of curiosity the other day, I went up to Carvana's web site to see what they'd offer, and their offer came in at $21,800. Back in 2018, I'd have never predicted this. In fact, my brother chided me back then for buying rather than leasing because "in 3 years your car's tech will be outmoded and the car will be worth less than half of what you paid for it." So my takeaway is that you can never tell, so I just try not to overthink things that are out of my control anyway.
 
#5 ·
Other factors are the uptake rate of electric cars (and their batteries) over the next few years, and the rollout rate of competitive models from other suppliers, and the development rate of new battery technology.

I would not plan on replacing the battery. If the batteries degrade significantly (a big if), then a car with a nominal 250 mile range degraded way down to 150, even, will still have a perfectly useful range for most local drives. I rented an early Leaf one time that only had a 40 mile range still available, and it worked fine for touring around L.A.

A much bigger question is what will happen to the millions of perfectly good ICE cars sold between now and whenever humans wake up to climate change.
 
#6 ·
A much bigger question is what will happen to the millions of perfectly good ICE cars sold between now and whenever humans wake up to climate change.
That will be an interesting scenario for sure. At some point in the not too distant future it will be seriously uncool to buy an ICE vehicle as everyone and their grandmother are switching to EVs, and at that point ICE resale value will drop like a rock. I think that much is quite certain. Will it be in 2025, 2027, 2030? Who knows, but it'll be this decade.
As a corollary, resale value of older EVs will hold up well as demand increases at the expense of ICE.

Beyond that I don't want to make predictions. We are in a period of massive change and turmoil, and extrapolations are almost certainly going to be wrong. But I will say that I bought my ID4 with cash on purpose, and firmly believe my bet will pay off.
 
#7 ·
When warranty or Miles exceed threshold....
Most of the future owners should ask themselves.....do i want to buy this EV if some major repairs could cost North of 20k+ for repairs.
Remember that most of the EV makers are trying to sell you new EV and if government keeps throwing people tax money to convince you to buy EV vs ICE....EV makers they will not care about expired warranty and people who have to pay out his/her pocket for major repairs.
Any EV that is out of warranty or above miles to be still under warranty...

Could easily cost you for any minor (not major) repairs inside of HV battery just in labor over 10k+ dollars.
Aftermarket shops that will be popping up in near future will not give you quality or something that will justify to throw 10-15k+ on EV that has no warranty anymore and will have with time problems with propulsion units....motor inverters and other expensive electronics.
So people who are cashing on resale values some times in the future will be lucky until second hand owners figure out what Is going to cost them when warranty is gone.
In directions how EV is going it will make many 2nd hand owners with bad outcomes.
 
#9 · (Edited)
The ID.4 is a "world car" as well as being an MEB platform car. In short, MEB cars will be very well supported in coming years due to the sheer number of makes/models built on the same underlying platform. This was one of the reasons why I decided to purchase my ID.4 instead of leasing it - I am confident it will be well supported (e.g. strong aftermarket, replacement parts, repairability, hackability etc.) As far as how this translates to value? No clue - but I'm betting it will hold it's value pretty well.
 
#10 ·
The ID.4 is a "world car" as well as being an MEB platform car. In short, MEB cars will be very well supported in coming years due to the shear numbers of makes/models built on the same underlying platform. This was one of the reasons why I decided to purchase my ID.4 instead of leasing it - I am confident it will be well supported (e.g. strong aftermarket, replacement parts, repairability, hackability etc.) As far as how this translates to value? No clue - but I'm betting it will hold it's value pretty well.
Parts will be reasonable cheap...but labor costs and what it takes for some major repairs will make your head spinning.
 
#13 ·
Used EV's of any make usually depreciate much quicker than comparable ICE's and once they near the end of their warranty, they really begin to sink like a stone - Nobody wants to get caught with a malfunctioning EV which isn't covered by the warranty and you can't blame them

A new battery in 10 years? Probably half the cost of the car when it was new and then when you drive your 10 year old EV out of the shop with it's new battery, you still couldn't sell it for what you just paid to have the new battery installed

If you're gonna keep it 10 years (like I am) you'd better start out from the very beginning taking excellent care of the battery pack, because for all intents and purposes, replacing it with a new one isn't even an option . . . .
 
#14 ·
Buying salvage EV and using it as house backup until your EV is in need of new pack is no problem...considering that you can do it yourself or found someone who will not charge you a lot for labor.
And cost of refurbished pack ( not new by any means) and cost of labor will cost you easily 2X+ the value of 10 years old EV.
And trust me when electric assisted turbos come to ICE markets and more efficient burning cycle for diesel engines that will not need dpf filter at all except urea.....it will be very hard for heavy EV to compete against.
Unless EV moves to mini onboard reactors.
Getting output and energy density to be as light as engine and tank of fuel will not happen any time soon.
But i will enjoy my time working with my Frankenstein project.
 
#15 ·
That was the claim when the Honda Insight came out in 2000. "The replacement battery will cost $12,000 and the dealer will charge you a fortune to change it!!!"

Replacement battery with five year warranty and all new cells costs less than $2000, and takes a few hours to replace at home.
 
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#21 ·
I think it will hold its value pretty well. In terms of tech, there will be better cars, but they will seek a higher price target accordingly ( think EV6 for example .) In other words, I don't expect better technology for less money happening in the next ten years (EV's are not smart phones on wheels ). A better car will demand a higher price tag, and that protects the prices of the use ID.4

The lithium metal supply will eventually squeeze since the amount needed to be mine is more than miners can extract in short notice. So that will keep some price constraints on EV. This is not good for a zero carbon future, but it will be good for the ID.4 to hold its value.

The ID.4's battery chemistry uses Cobalt. There are some human rights concern around cobalt, plus it is the most expensive metal in the battery. Future cars, especially "consumer level" cars like the ID.4 will likely have LFP ( Lithium Iron Phosphate ) batteries in the future. So I think the current crop of ID.4 will have some performance batch among those who know for having the Cobalt based chemistry. LFP batteries are also heavier for their charge capacity.

I think the chip shortage will be a nonissue in 7 years.

The only EV that I know that does not retain the value is the Nissan Leaf. But this is mostly attributed to battery degradation and this is because Nissan did not add a liquid thermal management system. VW and every other OEM has resolve that problem. The ID.4 with a well cared battery (Stay away from ID.4s that spent their time in Arizona in the future ) should fair well.

But I think the factor that will keep the ID.4 for depreciating is the slow ramp up. We need to double EV production every year for the next 4 years to reach reach current production number of ICE cars. Therefore, people that want an EV but can't afford a new one ( or won't consider the option... I know I had a hard time ) will have very few choices because the used car market, by definition will be growing three years behind the market for new cars. Last time I checked the world will produce up to 4 million EV's this year( Tesl 1 million, BYD next, VW is around 400K ? ) . To compare, about every big ICE OEM produces 10 million cars a year. Therefore, the lack of EV's on the used market should allow the ID.4 to keep its value.

Futuristic topics:

Solid State Batteries: Again, once they come online they will be on the most expensive cars on the market. I would guess $120K and above. So it will have no effect on the ID.4 value. Plus to have them arrive by 2025 I think is optimistic.

Self Driving Cars: Ray kurzweil likes to say people think linearly about the future and we should think exponentially. I think we have over-corrected and now expect to have breakthroughs happen every year. I think self-driving will happen to companies like Waymo first. And those companies treat their cars the way airline companies treat their airplanes. By that I mean like costly equipment that pays for itself over time. That technology will not be in consumer cars anytime soon. These system will not compete with the ID.4 directly initially. This is the case because the taxi services are available within a limited region in cities. So, not the service you want to use for road trips. I think we will get there. But if I had to bet, I would bet 2030's
 
#22 ·
It all depends on the cost of battery replacement or upgrade, if you can just drop the old battery pack out and replace it with the newest technology then car will maintain value. If you can’t do this without going broke, after 10 years or so you will have a gigantic paper weight.
 
#24 ·
I am not all that worried, but it will be several years before people might need a replacement that is out of warranty. The VW will be sold in large numbers, and numerous options will be available to open and repair battery packs if for example you had just one cell go bad.

I was watching a video the other day from Rich Rebuilds - they were doing something sort of like that to a Tesla that needed a battery repair. It wasn't cheap, but he was able to do it for a lot less than what Tesla wanted to completely replace the pack.

There will always be an advantage to owning a car that is sold in large volumes - numerous options for repair will exist that simply won't be there for people that own cars that are sold in much smaller numbers.
 
#28 ·
Cars do not depreciate in the current environment. The hold their value or appreciate against the dollar, which is itself in a downward spiral. Maybe the cars are depreciating against the Bitcoin but not against the dollar.

It all depends on your desire to get a better deal for your used (or barely used) car. I got a trade-in value on my barely used Model Y (with 23 miles on it) from Audi dealers in the range of $49,000 - $64,000 - depending on the dealer. One dealer gave me a trade-in quote for $54,000. When I laughed at him on the phone and told him I already had a quote from another dealer for $64,000, he asked me to email him the quote. Then, he matched it. So, his appraisal of my ModelnY went from $54,000 to $64,000 within an hour. In the meantime, Musk raised the price of the Model Y by $2,000 in the 10 days that I was negotiating the trade-in, so the official Tesla price became $$59,000. I went to both dealers and told them if they raised their trade-in price by $2,000 more, I was ready to trade my Model Y in for a brand-new e-tron. One refused, while the other one is deciding.

Vroom appraised my Model Y for $60,000, which is a low ball. Carvana can’t appraise it yet because the car is so new, I don’t have the title in hand yet, and their system can’t pull the title from the DMV (or wherever) yet.

The moral of this story is that no one knows the true value of your car at this time. Your quotes could differ by 25% (like in my case). So if you are patient and are willing to put some work into the appraisal, and if you are not averse to haggling and telling the dealers off, you can get a very good price for your car. Theee-year-old cheap vehicles like Honda CRV or Ford Focus are selling above the purchase price when they were new.

Teslas definitely hold their values better than the ID.4 right now, but I actually believe that I could make a few grand if I bought an AWD ID.4, paid the sales tax, claimed the $7,500 refund, and then turned around and sold it. I would find a dealer or a private party who can’t wait 6-8 months and wants to pay extra to have it right away and who doesn’t care about the refund. Some people with the money can’t get a refund because they may only have capital gains and no income tax. Others may want to salvage their savings from inflation and save on ever increasing gas prices, so they may want to buy an EV now before their money turns into dust by the inflation. They may not have enough income to take advantage of the $7,500 tax rebate.

We live in strange times, and many things that weren’t possible before are possible now.
 
#31 ·
Cars do not depreciate in the current environment. The hold their value or appreciate against the dollar, which is itself in a downward spiral. Maybe the cars are depreciating against the Bitcoin but not against the dollar.

It all depends on your desire to get a better deal for your used (or barely used) car. I got a trade-in value on my barely used Model Y (with 23 miles on it) from Audi dealers in the range of $49,000 - $64,000 - depending on the dealer. One dealer gave me a trade-in quote for $54,000. When I laughed at him on the phone and told him I already had a quote from another dealer for $64,000, he asked me to email him the quote. Then, he matched it. So, his appraisal of my ModelnY went from $54,000 to $64,000 within an hour. In the meantime, Musk raised the price of the Model Y by $2,000 in the 10 days that I was negotiating the trade-in, so the official Tesla price became $$59,000. I went to both dealers and told them if they raised their trade-in price by $2,000 more, I was ready to trade my Model Y in for a brand-new e-tron. One refused, while the other one is deciding.

Vroom appraised my Model Y for $60,000, which is a low ball. Carvana can’t appraise it yet because the car is so new, I don’t have the title in hand yet, and their system can’t pull the title from the DMV (or wherever) yet.

The moral of this story is that no one knows the true value of your car at this time. Your quotes could differ by 25% (like in my case). So if you are patient and are willing to put some work into the appraisal, and if you are not averse to haggling and telling the dealers off, you can get a very good price for your car. Theee-year-old cheap vehicles like Honda CRV or Ford Focus are selling above the purchase price when they were new.

Teslas definitely hold their values better than the ID.4 right now, but I actually believe that I could make a few grand if I bought an AWD ID.4, paid the sales tax, claimed the $7,500 refund, and then turned around and sold it. I would find a dealer or a private party who can’t wait 6-8 months and wants to pay extra to have it right away and who doesn’t care about the refund. Some people with the money can’t get a refund because they may only have capital gains and no income tax. Others may want to salvage their savings from inflation and save on ever increasing gas prices, so they may want to buy an EV now before their money turns into dust by the inflation. They may not have enough income to take advantage of the $7,500 tax rebate.

We live in strange times, and many things that weren’t possible before are possible now.
Mark my words....a year from now when more adequate EV become reality as long range EV ...Tesla values will drop where they belong ( reason why they did hold good resale values where because they didn't have competition against grocery getters EV's).
What people need to do is reconsider another alternative and refuse price paying anything over MSRP ( definitely less than MSRP).
But there will still be car flippers that wanna take advantage of EV discounts they can collect and try to sell it to non informed people.
And your statement is right on the spot with people that don't understand what it takes actually to pay in full. ... cash....or total cost of the loan....and most of them are only interested what is my monthly payment gonna be.
 
#30 ·
I think it's best to 'assume' what VW tells you when you lease (and what the market has told us for many many years of car ownership): that over a normal 3-year lease with 10k-12k miles that the car is going to lose at least 50% of its value. Anything else is speculation at this point. If you get to the end of year 3 and it's worth more than that, then great for you. But if it's not, then you won't be disappointed.

The current market where people buy normally depreciating assets and are selling them for more than they bought them for is the definition of 'frothy speculation'. And just like the housing market before the great recession, it's all fine and dandy until the music stops and the people that overpaid get screwed (i.e. end up with a broken, out of warranty car with mounting bills and that are so far underwater nobody in their right mind will pay them for it what they owe). At which point there will be a call in Congress for us to bail out all the people that overpaid. The end problem is that the people who can least afford to get hurt are the ones that will almost always be at the end of the cycle.
 
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