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I thought an extra 10K for Q4 was generous.
Yes that was close. They sold a total ~10K of the Audi etron through Q2 2021:
Add a few Porsche Taycans in there as they are part of the group? I expect ID.4 sales to go up quickly once TN production starts and we can hopefully get them quicker than my >13 month wait. But that factory is starting June of 2022, so we are not likely to hit 200K until maybe end of next year, and then the phaseout would start 6 months later. And that is only if they fail to pass the new changes to the EV tax credit and make it point of sale refundable and larger.
 

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Yep. That's why they are counted as one.
No, I don't agree that you are interpreting the law correctly and you haven't cited the law that supports your point.

They are distinct brands and they are distinct manufacturers. It's not based on "holding company" otherwise all of Fiat's sales would be included with GM's under "Stellantis" and all of Mitsubishi's would be included with Nissan's under "the Alliance", for example. They aren't, however, as illustrated by this chart:

If you have legislative authority stating otherwise, I'd like to read it. This is my second request for the source of your information.
 

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I hope this helps with some of the confusion about the EV phaseouts...

I appreciate the evadoption chart, but looking at Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars, it appears that the IRS groups the holding companies together.

Chevrolet and Cadillac had the exact same phase out. I'd wager that it is unlikely that Chevrolet and Cadillac (as "separate" companies) had the same pace of EV sales and independently met the 200,000 EV sales threshold during the exact same quarter.

What is being proposed is that VW managed to strike a sweet deal with the IRS to have three separate distinct manufacturers for a total of 600,000 vehicles, but the folks at General Motors couldn't figure out how to separate Cadillac or GMC Hummer from Chevrolet to get the same deal. I get the General Motors has made some lousy business decisions over the years, but leaving a $7500 tax credit off the table for 200,000 Cadillacs and 200,000 GMC Hummers would result in the entire leadership team being fired.

No tax credit for 2023 LYRIQ: GM鈥檚 Upcoming $60K EV Crossover Sold Out In Minutes - Without Tax Incentive Support | Torque News
No tax credit for 2022 GMC Hummer EV: Hummer EV Won't Qualify For Nearly $10k In Incentives


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No, I don't agree that you are interpreting the law correctly and you haven't cited the law that supports your point.

They are distinct brands and they are distinct manufacturers. It's not based on "holding company" otherwise all of Fiat's sales would be included with GM's under "Stellantis" and all of Mitsubishi's would be included with Nissan's under "the Alliance", for example. They aren't, however, as illustrated by this chart:

If you have legislative authority stating otherwise, I'd like to read it. This is my second request for the source of your information.
 

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2021 1st
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852 Posts
I hope this helps with some of the confusion about the EV phaseouts...

I appreciate the evadoption chart, but looking at Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars, it appears that the IRS groups the holding companies together.

Chevrolet and Cadillac had the exact same phase out. I'd wager that it is unlikely that Chevrolet and Cadillac (as "separate" companies) had the same pace of EV sales and independently met the 200,000 EV sales threshold during the exact same quarter.

What is being proposed is that VW managed to strike a sweet deal with the IRS to have three separate distinct manufacturers for a total of 600,000 vehicles, but the folks at General Motors couldn't figure out how to separate Cadillac or GMC Hummer from Chevrolet to get the same deal. I get the General Motors has made some lousy business decisions over the years, but leaving a $7500 tax credit off the table for 200,000 Cadillacs and 200,000 GMC Hummers would result in the entire leadership team being fired.

No tax credit for 2023 LYRIQ: GM鈥檚 Upcoming $60K EV Crossover Sold Out In Minutes - Without Tax Incentive Support | Torque News
No tax credit for 2022 GMC Hummer EV: Hummer EV Won't Qualify For Nearly $10k In Incentives


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Thank you for this deep dive. I certainly consider this more authoritative than the link I provided and your logic is sound. I posted that chart to support my earlier post that this was the first time I've heard of the issue framed that way. I did request evidence for the counter-argument I could revise my opinion in line with it. I do appreciate your time in digging that up and posting it here.
 

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By this time next year all gone
Even if VW hit 200,000 units sometime in Q1 2022 there will be a period of reducing tax credits over a 12 months period. Its simply not possible for the credit to be "all gone" by Q4 2022.

As others have stated it will be a while before VW hits the 200,000 limit, it could be 2023 IMHO. If the BBB bill ends up passing as currently drafted then it'll be a moot point as credits will return for all brands with caps removed.
 
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