I did a back of the envelope calculation of this, after a correction pointed out by another member, which I'll repeat here. If one disregards TT & L fees, sales tax, and the time value of money (at 1% bank interest this isn't too far from reality) for simplification purposes: Lease cost is $13,644 + $2501+$699+395=$17,239. Purchase cost is $39,995 - $7500 = $32,495. Break-even at the end of 3 years is if the car is worth: $32,495 - $17,239 = $15,256. If the car is worth less than that, you made out with the lease. The VW residual in the contract is not stated in the above quote, but it's likely more than that. So, if you leased with the expectation of buying out your car at the end and the contract amount is greater than $15,256, you lost. Contract residual is surely more than $15,256. So, what about VW offering discounts on the buy out? $15,256 is 47% of 32,495 or 38% of 39,995. I maintain that when calculating fractions of residual, it needs to be the after TC amount, because any new buyer is looking at the post TC amount, not MSRP. It's a different matter after the TC go away, where those that bought with a TC have a resale advantage because the residual is going to be compared to the MSRP. So, is the lease a good deal? If the TC are still available in 3 years (impossible now, but could happen with a Biden Admin) a residual of 38% is probably a good hedge against technology improvements. If the TC are gone in 3 years, a residual of 47% with a contract buyout less than that could result in a lease being a money-making proposition. This really looks to me like "heads I win, Tails you loose". Anybody see an error in this thinking?