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Discussion Starter #1
Just saw this posted on reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/kshvip
Closed end lease financing available for a new, unused 2021 ID.4 1st EDITION with automatic transmission, on approved credit to highly qualified customers by Volkswagen Credit through participating dealers. Monthly lease payment based on MSRP of $43,995 and destination charges less a $7,500 Lease Incentive and suggested dealer contribution resulting in a capitalized cost of $35,347.60. Excludes tax, title, license, options, and dealer fees. Amount due at signing includes first month’s payment, customer down payment of $2,342.40, and acquisition fee of $699. Monthly payments total $16,164.12. Your payment will vary based on final negotiated price. At lease end, lessee responsible for disposition fee of $395, $0.20/mile over 30,000 miles and excessive wear and use. Offer not valid in Puerto Rico. See your Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. Offer is subject to change or terminate without notice.

$449 per month. Not sure what the source is.
 

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Just saw this posted on reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/kshvip
Closed end lease financing available for a new, unused 2021 ID.4 1st EDITION with automatic transmission, on approved credit to highly qualified customers by Volkswagen Credit through participating dealers. Monthly lease payment based on MSRP of $43,995 and destination charges less a $7,500 Lease Incentive and suggested dealer contribution resulting in a capitalized cost of $35,347.60. Excludes tax, title, license, options, and dealer fees. Amount due at signing includes first month’s payment, customer down payment of $2,342.40, and acquisition fee of $699. Monthly payments total $16,164.12. Your payment will vary based on final negotiated price. At lease end, lessee responsible for disposition fee of $395, $0.20/mile over 30,000 miles and excessive wear and use. Offer not valid in Puerto Rico. See your Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. Offer is subject to change or terminate without notice.

$449 per month. Not sure what the source is.
Literally a copy/paste from vw.com
 

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I am not a lease expert but is looks to me like the residual is about 41% after 36 months. I took the MSRP less the tax credit, down payment and the sum of the monthly payments. I didn't figure in a money factor because rates are so low. To me this is the cost of driving the car for 3 years and it represents almost 60% of MSRP. If my analysis is correct this is a very expensive car, Maybe a lease expert can chime in and correct me if I am wrong.
 

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@JTL-- your back of the envelope calculations show that one is spending a lot of money to own an ID.4 for 3 years. Lease is hardly ever the best financial option, UNLESS you think the resale value at the end of 3 years is going to be very low. Then, one can consider the lease to be a form of "final value protection". But, it's still a bad financial transaction compared to, say, a Tiguan. History is that resale for any EV other than a Tesla has been very low. Frankly, buying or leasing ANY EV in the next 2-3 years, other than a Tesla, is not a wise financial decision and if you do so, it's for other reasons than doing a smart financial decision. If we were being financially rational, we would select something other than an EV, over the next 3 years.
 

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@JTL-- your back of the envelope calculations show that one is spending a lot of money to own an ID.4 for 3 years. Lease is hardly ever the best financial option, UNLESS you think the resale value at the end of 3 years is going to be very low. Then, one can consider the lease to be a form of "final value protection". But, it's still a bad financial transaction compared to, say, a Tiguan. History is that resale for any EV other than a Tesla has been very low. Frankly, buying or leasing ANY EV in the next 2-3 years, other than a Tesla, is not a wise financial decision and if you do so, it's for other reasons than doing a smart financial decision. If we were being financially rational, we would select something other than an EV, over the next 3 years.
I think the lease numbers are saying that VW believes the value at the end of 3 years will be low. There may well be other reasons beyond financial for getting an EV but I am not in that camp if it costs me a lot of $$. A typical ICE vehicle depreciates about 40% over 3 years and has range and does not need to rewire your garage to provide fuel.
 

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Blue ID.4 1st Edition
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I think the lease numbers are saying that VW believes the value at the end of 3 years will be low. There may well be other reasons beyond financial for getting an EV but I am not in that camp if it costs me a lot of $$. A typical ICE vehicle depreciates about 40% over 3 years and has range and does not need to rewire your garage to provide fuel.
Don't forget to include the $7500 tax credit, which is essentially instant depreciation that you don't pay for. Once you take that out the effective depreciation is ~50% instead of 60%. That's still worse than a typical ICE vehicle, but the reduced fuel costs close the gap further. A used Leaf is the way to go if you want the lowest possible costs.
 

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Don't forget to include the $7500 tax credit, which is essentially instant depreciation that you don't pay for. Once you take that out the effective depreciation is ~50% instead of 60%. That's still worse than a typical ICE vehicle, but the reduced fuel costs close the gap further. A used Leaf is the way to go if you want the lowest possible costs.
Depreciation never the less. Instead of you paying for it the Feds pay for it. I look at it as just another down payment. Tesla doesn't get the subsidy and yet I believe their residuals are much better. If VW did not get the subsidy the payments would be higher and the residual would be the same. At the end of the day the depreciation on this vehicle is estimated to be very high by VW.
 

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Yet another red flag for me sadly... Don't forget the higher than average insurance cost compared to an ICE vehicle... I have more cons than pros at this point.
 

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I'll probably buy, but I'm curious about leasing, which I've never done before. Can someone show how the depreciation estimates were derived? And what does VW think the car will be worth at the end of the lease?
 

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With typical financing, you will still be upside down in three years.

At the end of the lease, the market value could be greater than the buyout terms or, in the more likely scenario it the market value could be less.

I see the scenario where the midrange market comes to life in the next 2 years and the market will be flooded new vehicles, with improved technologies and selling prices driven by competition, lower costs and, potentially, exhaustion of incentives. This would put great pressure on the used ID.4 market - so much so that the market value will be significantly less than the buyout. Volumes of ID.4's coming off lease simultaneously could be a problem where VW Credit could make buyout offers at a significant discount.
 
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I'll probably buy, but I'm curious about leasing, which I've never done before. Can someone show how the depreciation estimates were derived? And what does VW think the car will be worth at the end of the lease?
With typical financing, you will still be upside down in three years.

At the end of the lease, the market value could be greater than the buyout terms or, in the more likely scenario it the market value could be less.

I see the scenario where the midrange market comes to life in the next 2 years and the market will be flooded new vehicles, with improved technologies and selling prices driven by competition, lower costs and, potentially, exhaustion of incentives. This would put great pressure on the used ID.4 market - so much so that the market value will be significantly less than the buyout. Volumes of ID.4's coming off lease simultaneously could be a problem where VW Credit could make buyout offers at a significant discount.
You are correct. That is why the residual is so low. VW knows the used values will plummet. If people want to be first adopters and have the bragging rights so be it. I am not one of them any longer. I like the concept and someday EV's will be mainstream but not in my lifetime. For similar money and more fun I could just get a Golf R and it holds more value.
 

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For similar money and more fun I could just get a Golf R and it holds more value.
Same for me with a GTI Autobahn. I drive maybe 350 miles a month, but I'm just enough of a VW nerd that the ID.4 makes sense in a completely nonsensical way.
 

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Mythos Black FE- Reservation January 13 (Previously Pro S), Jan 13, 9:45 AM PST
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I have gone back and forth on whether to buy or lease. I have never leased. Primarily because I tend to commit to a car. I drive it until it not economically feasible to do so. Over the years of ownership I may miss out on some tech (I’m driving a 2004 Pilot now), but some of that will be made up with minor OTA upgrades. I’m hoping that the next battery pack (if they keep the MEB platform) will be even better. Plus, my wife will be due for a new car in a couple of years.
 

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I have am in the same boat and have never leased before either. The mileage limits would kill me and I hate to have to worry about the miles I am driving, and I want the flexibility to keep or get rid of the car when I want to. So for me, the numbers and other factors say buy even with the risk of a low value at the end. Any new car is a losing financial proposition, you just have to weigh for yourself if it is worth it. I said I would never buy another new car again and especially at MSRP, until the ID.4 came along and I seemed to have lost my mind. Many other cars make more sense, but it is not totally a financial decision for me.

This is my first entry into the EV world and my thought is try it out with the ID.4 and in 3-5 years see what the advances are and upgrade then if I want to. Really excited about the new big EV sedans VW has in the concept stage right now for the future.
 

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ID.4 Pro S AWD / Waiting, waiting, waiting
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The rates put them close to Tesla territory. I am waiting for the Pro S AWD which will be 9.5% more than the F.E. Figure the same terms that would put the AWD lease rates at $490-500/mo. with about $2,500 down. The Tesla Y LR can be had for $499/mo and $4,500 down (or $559/mo and $2,500 down).
 

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Discussion Starter #18
I have gone back and forth on whether to buy or lease. I have never leased. Primarily because I tend to commit to a car. I drive it until it not economically feasible to do so. Over the years of ownership I may miss out on some tech (I’m driving a 2004 Pilot now), but some of that will be made up with minor OTA upgrades. I’m hoping that the next battery pack (if they keep the MEB platform) will be even better. Plus, my wife will be due for a new car in a couple of years.
I am in the same boat as you. I am going to wing it when the moment comes
 

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TT97 I ordered PRO S AWD with Gradient here is the posted leasing info:
View attachment 1293


View attachment 1294
I'm trying to understand how residual value is calculated. If VW's stated cost is $40,939.50, and the customer pays $21,834.47, is the residual value roughly $19,000? And does that mean VW estimates the car will depreciate by 53% in 3 years, making it worth 47% of its original value? I might go compare the numbers with a Mustang Mach-E and a RAV4 Prime, both of which I would consider buying.
 

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ID.4 Pro S AWD / Waiting, waiting, waiting
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