This isn't even speculation on my part, just me being not fatalistic: in how my service manager and others here have relayed the extreme slowness of the server access while pulling updates, perhaps this slowdown was spilling over to non-ID.4 access requests as well, perhaps US accesses were affecting worldwide or at least European shops in their ability to perform routine work in unanticipated ways, perhaps VW wants the rumored-not-verified US server online before continuing.
Again, not speculating any specifics, just that perhaps this has nothing to do with the actual update being applied, and everything to do with something internal.
My speculation is this is nothing but a blip, a bump in the road. Enough 2.1 > 3.1 conversions have made it out alive to confirm that the process works, even if it's complex.
Of course maybe VW discovered a fatal flaw in 3.1 that will necessitate an additional shop visit, and they're wholesale stopping the process until that can be remedied. ¯\(ツ)/¯ Oops, is that fatalistic?
🥺
It doesn't actually matter what the reason is. VW has proven these cars are updatable, if there was any doubt. Whatever the reason for the delay, our turn will come.