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Can WW sell more electric cars than Tesla by 2025?

  • Yes

    Votes: 34 51.5%
  • No

    Votes: 32 48.5%
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Can they? Yes, probably. Will they? Maybe.

Like @Froggy says they have some issues to tackle, not just plant capacity.

VW also has more vehicle models at a compelling price point.

Tesla just opened two new big vehicle assembly plants in March and April (Grünheide and Austin), joining Fremont and Shanghai, so their new capacity isn't included in last quarter's data. And they're making batteries at their own plants in the two new plants plus Lathrop (CA) and Reno.

It's going to be interesting to watch! 🍿
 

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Tesla is about to be an underdog in the DCFC world, too. I think it won't be long before Tesla owners notice there are many more CCS charging options nearer or more conveniently located than there are Tesla superchargers, and when it's time to buy their next vehicle, may feel like a non-Tesla provides more options (both in charging locations as well as variety of vehicle selection).

I really don't believe Tesla can maintain their own go-it-alone charging standard in the US without compromising their owner satisfaction, ultimately hurting sales. Maybe not today, but very soon.
 

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I don't know, Don, when I car shop I shop for a car that meets my needs and expectations – I kind of avoid cars that I think might be in need of an OTA that might address a shortcoming at some undisclosed point in the future.

I'm not saying I don't want an OTA – I do – yet I can say I've been happy with the car I bought.
 

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...The other factor to me is Musk has become more and more polarizing over the past few years. And he seems to me picking the wrong side of fights for people interested in BEVs. That is going to become a factor when your vehicles are no longer the clear cut winners.
Without making this political, I'll just add this observation: There was an article just in the past few days describing a left/right divide when it comes to EV adoption – not absolute, just "generally speaking" (and BTW this board does an excellent job of staying non-political, and I appreciate that and hope I'm not violating that).

Water cooler chat, Musk had been making moves that could be seen as attractive to some on the right, and may perhaps be purposeful to endear himself, and by extension Tesla, to a demographic which hasn't been as eager to adopt electric.

If so, interesting strategy, probably not though, but a fun thought experiment all the same.

Edit BTW I think the Ford F-150 lightning will have a similar effect, not blue/red per se, just causing some EV-doubtfuls to give consideration when they see this in real life.
 

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...So fix for 1 will be fix for all, I am scratching my head why VW is not taking it seriously and dealing with bugs on priority basis...
I agree with most of what your wrote, except that I think VW is keenly aware of this software one-for-all dilemma. The fact it's taking so long to kick out an update is an indication of exactly how deep their current troubles have been. I'm sure they're sweating bullets and all hands on deck trying to get this software stabilized with the sole intention of getting the program back on track. With so much on the line, no other explanation to me makes sense
 

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Instead of fixing 10/10 bugs fix 8 and let 2 for next update. Else by the time you fix all 10 there will be 10 more bugs and you will have more on your plate.
I think it's more like if you go out for dim sum you can attack one at a time, kind of that progressive approach rather than ordering a whole meal all at once...

... unless your plate is cracked, then you can't have any dim sum until the plates is fixed.

It would seem VW can't roll out any progressive OTAs until they fix the plate. 2.0 is a cracked plate and it feels to me like even 3.0 might not be fully dried in the kiln.
 

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...The disruption that is happening in EVs is due to Tesla and it will only accelerate with 2 additional Giga factories. They are 5 years ahead of the competition
I'm 100% in agreement with your statement.

However Tesla being 5 years ahead has very little impact to the buyer if the choice presented to the consumer is a $60,000 Model Y vs. a $40,000 ID.4.

The Tesla can have superior software, custom chipsets, 8 cameras, a gigacast rear end, and LFP batteries, but the majority of consumers are shopping for the best deal, as long as the car they're buying meets their needs.

Thank goodness for innovators like Tesla for pushing against the status quo – VW wouldn't be here without their effort.

Due to their technological disadvantage, VW may be building EVs at a loss at the moment, but they've got the cushion and the time to make it profitable. Tesla operated in a similar mode for about a decade.
 

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...Direct to consumer sales allows the price to modified in both directions as market conditions warrant. I fully expect Tesla to reduce prices as early as the end of this year as demand weakens
They've lowered their retail prices previously -- by about $1000 or so on the Model 3. If anyone is willing to pull off a price cut on a larger scale, it'll be Tesla. But if it's anything more than another grand or two I'll be surprised. For direct sales / no-haggle pricing to work, the consumer needs to be fairly confident that they're not getting taken for a ride. Of course, that theory is out the window in these ridiculous car market conditions.

ID.4 / Model Y price parity though? Ugh... I have a tough time imagining Tesla being that aggressive as it would devalue all of the cars on the road. Do you think they would risk that? (They might, right?)

But I also expect that VW will be willing to sell whatever they can at a zero-profit price, or even sustain losses for a period, to hit certain price points that it believes it can eventually make profitable. It's clear VW is playing for stakes and that they grasp the importance of market share in the face of multi-fronted competition. I think we're living with the repercussions of that strategy with the software delays after they scrambled to be first to market (not counting Tesla, but Ford & Hyundai).

VW being old-school, I can't see them significantly reducing the asking price for their car, other than traditional rebates and financing incentives.
 

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EV's are more expensive to produce and require different core technologies than VW used with ICE. What innovations will VW employ to scale EV production at lower price points? Spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee success.
Just a couple of years ago, an average EV was said to have a production cost of around 50% more than a comparable ICE, most but not all of that tied up in the battery.

By 2030 we're supposed to be at or close to cost parity.

I agree with you that no company can spend its way into guaranteed success. However, VW's not going to achieve parity without spending money to advance their tech. Tesla bet a lot of money on never-tested structural methods and has bet big on partnering with battery technology. It seems like the investment is paying dividends but Tesla was on rocky ground for a good while there. Their lead in the space is undeniable, but it will be matched in due time. Too many smart and motivated people invested in this technology.
 

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Yes, the model Y is "better" than the ID.4. Will that matter to the average consumer if the ID.4 is "good enough"?
Ooh, Ooh, them's fighting words! :D

I give ya that the Model Y has some superior (and frankly awesome) underlying tech, but as a car I prefer the VW -- it's "better.," and not from a cost standpoint.
 
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