[Fahrer]

On a global basis, I believe VW will surpass Tesla EV market share by 2025 ( if not , by 2030) if VW keeps adding production capacity and keeps prices in check. The build quality of VWs vs Tesla should enable VW to keeps its lead in the EU. It will take time to overtake Tesla in NAFTA. BYD is also going to be big, worldwide.

It is interesting the American media always discusses Tesla, Ford, Rivian, Kia/Hyudai, GM and a few others but rarely VW.

 

[Fahrer]

Tesla is about to be an underdog in the DCFC world, too. I think it won't be long before Tesla owners notice there are many more CCS charging options nearer or more conveniently located than there are Tesla superchargers, and when it's time to buy their next vehicle, may feel like a non-Tesla provides more options (both in charging locations as well as variety of vehicle selection).

I really don't believe Tesla can maintain their own go-it-alone charging standard in the US without compromising their owner satisfaction, ultimately hurting sales. Maybe not today, but very soon.

Remember Betamax vs VHS? ( I am showing my age)
Sony was first but the flood of VHS based brands eventually pushed Betamax off the retail shelves.

 

[Fahrer]

What else would you expect from someone who called the leader of the rescue team that saved the young soccer team from a Thailand cave a "pedo" just because Musk's proposed solution was rejected.

I think that over time, Musk will view the EV business as boring an find a new hobby such as robots or rother stuff. As it is, it seems he is not as focused on his EV products as he should be.

 

[Fahrer]

I think what most are overlooking is can VW even afford to scale BEVs to levels that Tesla is currently at with 3 Giga factories. What innovations are VW using that will get them there? They need to have a paradigm shift in manufacturing and BEVs are not in their core DNA. Tesla just produced more revenue in the last quarter than Toyota producing far fewer vehicles. They put them together quicker (10hrs vs 30hrs) due to best in class manufacturing/software and less parts (4680 structural battery pack + f/r castings). As Giga Austin and Berlin ramp, Tesla will use their economies of scale to move down market again and capture buyers at all price points. VW is supposed to make vehicles for the common people, but it doesn’t seem like they can afford to make a BEV profitably at this time.
Side Note:
I owned a VW ID 4 for 8 months and recently traded in for an Ioniq 5. The E-GMP platform is better than VWs and overall their EV drivetrain and battery technology (800V) is more advanced and performs at near Tesla levels of performance and efficiency. It’s questionable if they can even scale their BEVs profitability, I personally don’t think so.

I don't know where you get your information but Toyota's Q1 2022 revenue was $72.5 billion. Operating profit was $24.6 billion for the quarter.

VW Q! 2022 revenue was $66.1 Billion. Operating profit was $9 billion.

And these were certainly not the best years/quarters for either of those companies.

Tesla's Q1 2022 revenue was $18.8 billion. Operating profit was $5.5 billion. Obviously Tesla is not in the same league as VW or Toyota when it comes to actually making money and developing quality vehicles.

What Tesla has shown is that folks are willing to fork over large sums of money for a poorly made car because it was the only game in town. Now that the Model Y and 3 are available sale of the Model S and Model X have plummeted. Tesla also seems to have lots of problems developing new models. Never ending delays and false promises.

 

[Fahrer]

My mistake….operating income.
Tesla's operating income of $3.60B in Q1 2022 was slightly higher than Toyota's $3.56B, the largest automaker in the world by vehicle volume. Toyota sold ~2,759,000 vehicles in Q1 vs Tesla who sold 310,048.
Toyota warns profit to skid 20% as raw materials costs pile up

I disagree on the “poorly made” statement. Have you owned one and what do you base that on? My 2021 VW ID 4 suffered from creaking panoramic roof in cold weather, creaking drum breaks, misaligned passenger door, failed 12 V battery, and a embarrassing slow and glitchy UI. Not 1 OTA update in 🇺🇸

Elon Musk recently (May16th) spoke on the ALL IN POD YouTube channel and discussed on minute 13:26 how difficult it is to make EVs. Traditional Car Manufacturers are not prepared to compete in this new industry.

It took Tesla about 13 years to get to about 1million car sales with no competition.. VW has reached 500K EV car sales in about 2 years, growing much faster and that is with significant competition with arguable better quality. I think after 2025 tesla will be lucky if it is the number 2 or 3 EV maker behind VW, BYD, others.

Your snapshot of a weaker Toyota quarter significantly misrepresents Toyota's economic power. Giant companies like Toyota and VW make an enormous amount of money.

Regarding quality, I do not need to own a Tesla to learn about their quality. $1K door handles that continuously break, failing display screens, phantom braking, false claims on range, poorly fitted body panels, awful paint jobs. Where is the famous "autonomous" driving feature, the promised $35K car, the pickup, the highway tractor?

I also hear that after sales repair service is quite bad aside from minor/simple repairs that can be done at your home.

Tesla does have the best charging network for now but being the first modern EV maker is only going to get you so far.

 

[Fahrer]

Its a different game now, so what worked with cheaper ICE vehicles doesn't really apply to cheaper EV's. EV's are more expensive to produce and require different core technologies than VW used with ICE. What innovations will VW employ to scale EV production at lower price points? Spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee success. They will need radical change to compete with the EV only, more innovative and quicker Tesla. Diess is a world class CEO but VW really has a lot of headwinds that Musk and Tesla just don't have. Giga Austin is now complete and producing Model Y's. It is the largest and most innovative factory in the world, and its here in the USA.

By far, the largest auto manufacturing plant in the world is the VW Wolfsburg location. The Austin plant is quite small by comparison, actually. One thing VW has that Tesla does not have; a lrge money producing engine that will ensure VW makes lots of cash even if they don't make much on EVs for some years. Tesla makes money on their Shanghai operation (when it's running). Not so much on their US operations. Also, it says a lot about VW's technology and innovation to have comparable sales ( ~1milion vs ~500K) to Tesla in only a couple of years vs more than 10 years for Tesla.

 

[Fahrer]

I think the world's largest plant is the Hyundai Ulsan one (5 plants = 1.4M total cars built per year). The following two biggest plants in the world are Tesla Shanghai (484,130 built in 2021) and VW Wolfsburg (400K in 2021).

The biggest problem with EV production is battery capacity. It will limit the number of EVs produced each year.

I did not realize that Hyundai had 5 plants in Ulsan. They certainly do add up to a large capacity. The capacity of the (single plant location) VW Wolfsburg plant is over 800K vehicles per year. Actual production in any given year ( particularly these last few years) does not indicate plant size/capacity.

Battery capacity limitations are indeed a limiting factor in the growth of EVs but this is really only a major potential problem for those companies that only make EVs. Companies like Toyota and VW can still grow in the fastest growing markets with ICE vehicles.