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Can WW sell more electric cars than Tesla by 2025?

  • Yes

    Votes: 34 52.3%
  • No

    Votes: 31 47.7%
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I believe world wide VW (Autogroup) will be selling more BEVs world wide than Tesla. Maybe not in the US.

For a few reasons, one price of vehicles, two the range of vehicle available, three better day to day driving experience and four the gap between Tesla and VW is getting smaller with regards to range and charge times.

The other factor to me is Musk has become more and more polarizing over the past few years. And he seems to me picking the wrong side of fights for people interested in BEVs. That is going to become a factor when your vehicles are no longer the clear cut winners.
 

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...The other factor to me is Musk has become more and more polarizing over the past few years. And he seems to me picking the wrong side of fights for people interested in BEVs. That is going to become a factor when your vehicles are no longer the clear cut winners.
Without making this political, I'll just add this observation: There was an article just in the past few days describing a left/right divide when it comes to EV adoption – not absolute, just "generally speaking" (and BTW this board does an excellent job of staying non-political, and I appreciate that and hope I'm not violating that).

Water cooler chat, Musk had been making moves that could be seen as attractive to some on the right, and may perhaps be purposeful to endear himself, and by extension Tesla, to a demographic which hasn't been as eager to adopt electric.

If so, interesting strategy, probably not though, but a fun thought experiment all the same.

Edit BTW I think the Ford F-150 lightning will have a similar effect, not blue/red per se, just causing some EV-doubtfuls to give consideration when they see this in real life.
 

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@Nai3t,

You are making a observation so I really don’t think you are crossing any lines.

Maybe you are correct and he is trying to expand Tesla’s potential customers. If that is the case I may not agree with the methods but if it gets more people in BEVs good on him.
 

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View attachment 11644

Volkswagen's CEO Herbert Diess says he believes that they can outsell Tesla in EVs by 2025.

Last quarter, the VW group delivered 99,064 all-electric vehicles. During the same period, Tesla delivered over 310,000 all-electric vehicles.

Do you think it can be done in 3 years? Or is what Diess said just wishful thinking? VW certainly has the resources to do it but the timeframe might be too short.

Vote in the poll below and let's see what the results are.
Tesla will not be able to keep their market share in future with more and more EVs joining the EV gang. If VW can deliver reliable car with proper software updates they can overtake Tesla Easily. I guess Tesla has 4 factories vs VW already has 5, Zwickau, Emden, 2 in China and 1 in Chattanooga and may be others coming soon so they are on correct path.

VW has exact same platform, infotainment and many other things in each ID vehicles. So fix for 1 will be fix for all, I am scratching my head why VW is not taking it seriously and dealing with bugs on priority basis. If they can solve it, they will have really awesome product line. People are talking about Ioniq5 and EV6 but compared to Id vehicles there are just a few of them in real world so fewer problems reported.

What I feel like, Tesla with all these price increases, is going towards being Luxury category. On the other hand VW is delivering quality product at cheaper price. Most of the reviewers are saying it lacks in acceleration but masses not need 0-60 in 3 sec., They don’t want cell phone or gaming console on wheels. They need cheap, reliable car which can last long. Currently VW is most affordable EV for the features/price ratio but the issues are some software bugs and VW is not able to deliver Cars in reasonable time. If they can fix both of these issues, I guess they can Overtake Tesla in near future.
 

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...So fix for 1 will be fix for all, I am scratching my head why VW is not taking it seriously and dealing with bugs on priority basis...
I agree with most of what your wrote, except that I think VW is keenly aware of this software one-for-all dilemma. The fact it's taking so long to kick out an update is an indication of exactly how deep their current troubles have been. I'm sure they're sweating bullets and all hands on deck trying to get this software stabilized with the sole intention of getting the program back on track. With so much on the line, no other explanation to me makes sense
 

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I agree with most of what your wrote, except that I think VW is keenly aware of this software one-for-all dilemma. The fact it's taking so long to kick out an update is an indication of exactly how deep their current troubles have been. I'm sure they're sweating bullets and all hands on deck trying to get this software stabilized with the some intention of getting the program back on track. With so much on the line, no other explanation to me makes sense
Yeah root cause may be one for all software and they must be aware of this and obviously trying their best to fix it but 0 updates in over a year do not reflect good for them.

Instead of fixing 10/10 bugs fix 8 and let 2 for next update. Else by the time you fix all 10 there will be 10 more bugs and you will have more on your plate. I have been in that situation, we had multiple similar devices with one for all software, we decided to send out biweekly updates with whatever we can fix and it worked out so good, customers were hopeful and did not complain much about bug even if it was not fixed in next few updates. so best strategy may be to give update every few months with whatever that can fix, something is better than nothing. I bet even if you give a simple update which adds extra color for background, people will be happier. Any new software has bugs but you need way more frequent updates initially to fix them. I know it's not as easy to release updates for cars because of safety issues but others are doing it and VW is not so something is not going correctly, hope they find that issue and fix it ASAP. Even EV6 and Ioniq5 got major updates already. I have heard there have been multiple minor updates to fix issues like sound and heating/cooling issue for EV6.
 

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Instead of fixing 10/10 bugs fix 8 and let 2 for next update. Else by the time you fix all 10 there will be 10 more bugs and you will have more on your plate.
I think it's more like if you go out for dim sum you can attack one at a time, kind of that progressive approach rather than ordering a whole meal all at once...

... unless your plate is cracked, then you can't have any dim sum until the plates is fixed.

It would seem VW can't roll out any progressive OTAs until they fix the plate. 2.0 is a cracked plate and it feels to me like even 3.0 might not be fully dried in the kiln.
 

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Instead of fixing 10/10 bugs fix 8 and let 2 for next update. Else by the time you fix all 10 there will be 10 more bugs and you will have more on your plate.
Excellent plan, but first you've gotta prove that you can even get a simple fix out there and installed in the cars - 2 out of 10 would be an amazing fix at this point . . . . and we probably only needed 2 a year ago when the first update should have happened. Then you could do 2 each quarter and everyone would be positively amazed. If they're truly waiting for a 'big fix' before they do anything then we'll probably need 20 by this time next year - They just keep falling farther and farther behind because it doesn't appear the are capable of doing even a simple update
 

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I think it's more like if you go out for dim sum you can attack one at a time, kind of that progressive approach rather than ordering a whole meal all at once...

... unless your plate is cracked, then you can't have any dim sum until the plates is fixed.

It would seem VW can't roll out any progressive OTAs until they fix the plate. 2.0 is a cracked plate and it feels to me like even 3.0 might not be fully dried in the kiln.
Problem is not with plate, dim sum cooker is cracked here :ROFLMAO: they are not serving any dim sums.. that reminds me its time for my lunch break
 

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What else would you expect from someone who called the leader of the rescue team that saved the young soccer team from a Thailand cave a "pedo" just because Musk's proposed solution was rejected.

I think that over time, Musk will view the EV business as boring an find a new hobby such as robots or rother stuff. As it is, it seems he is not as focused on his EV products as he should be.
 

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I agree, @Fahrer . He is bored by Tesla now that it is on a solid financial footing. He really wants to find a manager he can turn it over to. Herbert Diess already turned him down, but if VW ever ejects him, you can bet Diess' first call will be to Elon.

A truly energetic manager at Tesla would be working on the Cybertruck and other new models, and then turn to refreshes for the M3 & MY.
 

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Here are some points that Diess made during VW annual shareholders meeting yesterday.


Last year, VW Group delivered 452,000 EVs globally. While in 2022, the automaker will almost double production to 800,000. By 2023, VW plans to build 1.3 million vehicles.

VW noted that they might need to increase prices across all brands this year due to rising raw material costs.

The company aims to overtake Tesla as the number one EV maker by 2025.
 

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I think what most are overlooking is can VW even afford to scale BEVs to levels that Tesla is currently at with 3 Giga factories. What innovations are VW using that will get them there? They need to have a paradigm shift in manufacturing and BEVs are not in their core DNA. Tesla just produced more revenue in the last quarter than Toyota producing far fewer vehicles. They put them together quicker (10hrs vs 30hrs) due to best in class manufacturing/software and less parts (4680 structural battery pack + f/r castings). As Giga Austin and Berlin ramp, Tesla will use their economies of scale to move down market again and capture buyers at all price points. VW is supposed to make vehicles for the common people, but it doesn’t seem like they can afford to make a BEV profitably at this time.
Side Note:
I owned a VW ID 4 for 8 months and recently traded in for an Ioniq 5. The E-GMP platform is better than VWs and overall their EV drivetrain and battery technology (800V) is more advanced and performs at near Tesla levels of performance and efficiency. It’s questionable if they can even scale their BEVs profitability, I personally don’t think so.
 

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No one company will take 100% market share. VW doesn't have to beat Tesla, they only have to beat Toyota or GM or Stelantis. I think VW is doing a great job, especially compared to recent tests of the E-GMP platforms that show both cold-gating and hot-gating in their charging.

When the EV market matures (ten years from now?) we'll see. Until then it is all opinion.
 

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I think what most are overlooking is can VW even afford to scale BEVs to levels that Tesla is currently at with 3 Giga factories. What innovations are VW using that will get them there? They need to have a paradigm shift in manufacturing and BEVs are not in their core DNA. Tesla just produced more revenue in the last quarter than Toyota producing far fewer vehicles. They put them together quicker (10hrs vs 30hrs) due to best in class manufacturing/software and less parts (4680 structural battery pack + f/r castings). As Giga Austin and Berlin ramp, Tesla will use their economies of scale to move down market again and capture buyers at all price points. VW is supposed to make vehicles for the common people, but it doesn’t seem like they can afford to make a BEV profitably at this time.
Side Note:
I owned a VW ID 4 for 8 months and recently traded in for an Ioniq 5. The E-GMP platform is better than VWs and overall their EV drivetrain and battery technology (800V) is more advanced and performs at near Tesla levels of performance and efficiency. It’s questionable if they can even scale their BEVs profitability, I personally don’t think so.
I don't know where you get your information but Toyota's Q1 2022 revenue was $72.5 billion. Operating profit was $24.6 billion for the quarter.

VW Q! 2022 revenue was $66.1 Billion. Operating profit was $9 billion.

And these were certainly not the best years/quarters for either of those companies.

Tesla's Q1 2022 revenue was $18.8 billion. Operating profit was $5.5 billion. Obviously Tesla is not in the same league as VW or Toyota when it comes to actually making money and developing quality vehicles.

What Tesla has shown is that folks are willing to fork over large sums of money for a poorly made car because it was the only game in town. Now that the Model Y and 3 are available sale of the Model S and Model X have plummeted. Tesla also seems to have lots of problems developing new models. Never ending delays and false promises.
 

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I don't know where you get your information but Toyota's Q1 2022 revenue was $72.5 billion. Operating profit was $24.6 billion for the quarter.

VW Q! 2022 revenue was $66.1 Billion. Operating profit was $9 billion.

And these were certainly not the best years/quarters for either of those companies.

Tesla's Q1 2022 revenue was $18.8 billion. Operating profit was $5.5 billion. Obviously Tesla is not in the same league as VW or Toyota when it comes to actually making money and developing quality vehicles.

What Tesla has shown is that folks are willing to fork over large sums of money for a poorly made car because it was the only game in town. Now that the Model Y and 3 are available sale of the Model S and Model X have plummeted. Tesla also seems to have lots of problems developing new models. Never ending delays and false promises.
My mistake….operating income.
Tesla's operating income of $3.60B in Q1 2022 was slightly higher than Toyota's $3.56B, the largest automaker in the world by vehicle volume. Toyota sold ~2,759,000 vehicles in Q1 vs Tesla who sold 310,048.
Toyota warns profit to skid 20% as raw materials costs pile up

I disagree on the “poorly made” statement. Have you owned one and what do you base that on? My 2021 VW ID 4 suffered from creaking panoramic roof in cold weather, creaking drum breaks, misaligned passenger door, failed 12 V battery, and a embarrassing slow and glitchy UI. Not 1 OTA update in 🇺🇸

Elon Musk recently (May16th) spoke on the ALL IN POD YouTube channel and discussed on minute 13:26 how difficult it is to make EVs. Traditional Car Manufacturers are not prepared to compete in this new industry.
 
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