[Fahrer]

I believe Toyota's assessment of the future for EVs is realistic. Yes they are late to EVs but their decades of successful, careful strategies cannot be denied.

Toyota Calls On Science To Tell EV-Only Extremists That They’re Wrong

After critics said it's dragging its feet on the matter of wider EV-only adoption, Toyota says science will prove its strategy is safe and sound.

insideevs.com

 

[Atlant]

I believe Toyota's assessment of the future for EVs is realistic. Yes they are late to EVs but their decades of successful, careful strategies cannot be denied.

Thanks you. I think that the people who are counting Toyota out for failing to rush to embrace EVs are reading both the market and Toyota incorrectly.

Here's a thought: Given the emergence of Green Hydrogen, we're on the verge of the ability to make pretty-green artificial liquid fuels. If that were to happen, the entire rush to BEVs might turn out to have been a pretty dumb idea.

 

[agzand]

Thanks you. I think that the people who are counting Toyota out for failing to rush to embrace EVs are reading both the market and Toyota incorrectly.

Here's a thought: Given the emergence of Green Hydrogen, we're on the verge of the ability to make pretty-green artificial liquid fuels. If that were to happen, the entire rush to BEVs might turn out to have been a pretty dumb idea.

We have been on the verge of nuclear fusion for my entire life! But seriously, green hydrogen could happen, but that will be a next generation fuel. It is were BEVs were in 1990s (Chevy EV-1). It took 20 years for BEVs to become mainstream, even with existing fueling infrastructure. It could take maybe 30 years for hydrogen to become a real player for transportation.

I think a combination of ICE, EVs and PHEVs will dominate in the next 20 years.

 

[Atlant]

We have been on the verge of nuclear fusion for my entire life! But seriously, green hydrogen could happen, but that will be a next generation fuel. It is were BEVs were in 1990s (Chevy EV-1). It took 20 years for BEVs to become mainstream, even with existing fueling infrastructure. It could take maybe 30 years for hydrogen to become a real player for transportation.

I think a combination of ICE, EVs and PHEVs will dominate in the next 20 years.

Green hydrogen => Green artificial liquid fuels will happen because that's the only hope that long-haul air travel has for survival. Intercontinental transport planes will NEVER be electrified even if short-haul, small regional planes are. And if refineries are cranking out a green Jet-A replacement, there's no reason why they can't just as easily crank out green diesel or even green gasoline.

And avoiding the full transition to BEVs is worth trillions of dollars to a lot of corporations. And it's a lot of avoided hassle for millions of drivers.

 

[TidingSStables]

I believe Toyota's assessment of the future for EVs is realistic. Yes they are late to EVs but their decades of successful, careful strategies cannot be denied.

Toyota Calls On Science To Tell EV-Only Extremists That They’re Wrong

After critics said it's dragging its feet on the matter of wider EV-only adoption, Toyota says science will prove its strategy is safe and sound.

insideevs.com

 

[agzand]

Green hydrogen => Green artificial liquid fuels will happen because that's the only hope that long-haul air travel has for survival. Intercontinental transport planes will NEVER be electrified even if short-haul, small regional planes are. And if refineries are cranking out a green Jet-A replacement, there's no reason why they can't just as easily crank out green diesel or even green gasoline.

And avoiding the full transition to BEVs is worth trillions of dollars to a lot of corporations. And it's a lot of avoided hassle for millions of drivers.

Personally I think we are one "battery technology jump" away from BEVs and particularly PHEVs dominating passenger car market (Toyota's main market).

Imaging what can be done with PHEVs if batteries were 30% more energy dense and a bit cheaper. A PHEV with 20-30 kWh battery (depending on vehicle size) and simplified ICE drivetrain makes a lot of sense. Something like Honda or Mitsubishi or even Toyota's own PHEV drivetrain with a larger battery is pretty compelling proposition.

 

[Fahrer]

Green hydrogen => Green artificial liquid fuels will happen because that's the only hope that long-haul air travel has for survival. Intercontinental transport planes will NEVER be electrified even if short-haul, small regional planes are. And if refineries are cranking out a green Jet-A replacement, there's no reason why they can't just as easily crank out green diesel or even green gasoline.

And avoiding the full transition to BEVs is worth trillions of dollars to a lot of corporations. And it's a lot of avoided hassle for millions of drivers.

Green fuels can be produced but at this time they aren't cheap. The beauty of liquid fuels for aircraft is that the longer you fly, the lighter the vehicle gets which is import for aircraft range.

Porsche begins production of 'e-fuel' that could provide gas alternative amid EV push

Porsche officials celebrated the beginning of e-fuel production with the filling of a Porsche 911 with the first synthetic fuel produced at the site.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Nycturne]

Green hydrogen => Green artificial liquid fuels will happen because that's the only hope that long-haul air travel has for survival. Intercontinental transport planes will NEVER be electrified even if short-haul, small regional planes are. And if refineries are cranking out a green Jet-A replacement, there's no reason why they can't just as easily crank out green diesel or even green gasoline.

And avoiding the full transition to BEVs is worth trillions of dollars to a lot of corporations. And it's a lot of avoided hassle for millions of drivers.

Would it even be worth electrifying short-haul regional planes if regional passenger trains weren't a mess here in the US? If we had good high speed rail in certain corridors, you could reduce the need for planes for those short-haul routes.

The problem I have with "green" synthetic fuels is that it's wholly dependent on carbon capture, which itself relies on a green grid to have the impact being touted. Green hydrogen is the same way. And both are always going to be more expensive than delivering the electricity. So while they are potentially useful energy storage for situations where electrification isn't feasible, there's a premium paid to use it.

This is one reason I wish more PHEVs had 40-50mi ranges, to get better coverage for the majority of the short trips being done. But it's also why I wish areas where density exists invested more in transit options, we got more walkable areas where people wouldn't need to be using cars for short trips, etc, etc. The goal is reduce carbon emissions, and I don't think it's going to be any one thing that will get us there. We need a bunch of different solutions eating away at the problem in different ways.

 

[Atlant]

Would it even be worth electrifying short-haul regional planes if regional passenger trains weren't a mess here in the US? If we had good high speed rail in certain corridors, you could reduce the need for planes for those short-haul routes.

THAT is a good question and I THINK that the answer is generally "No" with a few exceptions like island-hopping services to (say) Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket where there is never going to be train service. There probably is also call for executive helicopters to become electrified so the executives can still fly in luxury from their Manhattan office buildings to LaGuardia. But generally, I think you're right; generally speaking, regional jets shouldn't exist.

The problem I have with "green" synthetic fuels is that it's wholly dependent on carbon capture, which itself relies on a green grid to have the impact being touted. Green hydrogen is the same way. And both are always going to be more expensive than delivering the electricity. So while they are potentially useful energy storage for situations where electrification isn't feasible, there's a premium paid to use it.

But thanks to our society's dependency on plastics, there's a constant feedstock supply of waste polyethylene and other non-chlorinated plastics from which to draw the carbon part of the green fuels; it needn't be CO2 captured from the air. (At least, not yet.)

This is one reason I wish more PHEVs had 40-50mi ranges, to get better coverage for the majority of the short trips being done. But it's also why I wish areas where density exists invested more in transit options, we got more walkable areas where people wouldn't need to be using cars for short trips, etc, etc. The goal is reduce carbon emissions, and I don't think it's going to be any one thing that will get us there. We need a bunch of different solutions eating away at the problem in different ways.

I agree completely!

 

[TidingSStables]

Green fuels can be produced but at this time they aren't cheap. The beauty of liquid fuels for aircraft is that the longer you fly, the lighter the vehicle gets which is import for aircraft range.

Porsche begins production of 'e-fuel' that could provide gas alternative amid EV push

Porsche officials celebrated the beginning of e-fuel production with the filling of a Porsche 911 with the first synthetic fuel produced at the site.

www.cnbc.com

Don’t worry this may happen but it will fail.

 

[Nycturne]

But thanks to our society's dependency on plastics, there's a constant feedstock supply of waste polyethylene and other non-chlorinated plastics from which to draw the carbon part of the green fuels; it needn't be CO2 captured from the air. (At least, not yet.)

It's not really carbon neutral in the sense of green house gasses in the air then, is it? It's still taking carbon that was in the ground and burning it, just with more steps. I thought the point of what Porche is doing is that if they pull X tons of CO2 from the air to create fuel that puts X (plus a little) tons of CO2 back into the air, that cycle isn't making things appreciably worse, and reduces the impact of all the existing cars on the road. Refining plastics into fuel to burn is more a step sideways.

 

[bish79]

I believe Toyota's assessment of the future for EVs is realistic. Yes they are late to EVs but their decades of successful, careful strategies cannot be denied.

Toyota Calls On Science To Tell EV-Only Extremists That They’re Wrong

After critics said it's dragging its feet on the matter of wider EV-only adoption, Toyota says science will prove its strategy is safe and sound.

insideevs.com

While I think Toyota makes good points about battery production capabilities keeping up with BEV production and having better use in hybrids, they aren't walking the walk. Why isn't every car they produce a hybrid by now? Why did they design a fantastic PHEV with the RAV4 Prime and then barely produce any?

I owned a 2014 Prius v and it was a great hybrid, I then got a 2015 Sienna and it was a rattlebox old school ICE that got 15 MPG hauling kids around town. By 2015 the Sienna should have been a Hybrid or a PHEV, at least they finally caught up on that one now. Shoot, even Chrysler beat them to the punch on that!

So sorry if I feel this is just a smoke screen from Toyota, otherwise I would feel better about them.

 

[tacomambo]

I believe Toyota's assessment of the future for EVs is realistic. Yes they are late to EVs but their decades of successful, careful strategies cannot be denied.

Toyota Calls On Science To Tell EV-Only Extremists That They’re Wrong

After critics said it's dragging its feet on the matter of wider EV-only adoption, Toyota says science will prove its strategy is safe and sound.

insideevs.com

i disagree, theyll be lagging behind of sourcing battery components and what not... thus will affect their botto

While I think Toyota makes good points about battery production capabilities keeping up with BEV production and having better use in hybrids, they aren't walking the walk. Why isn't every car they produce a hybrid by now? Why did they design a fantastic PHEV with the RAV4 Prime and then barely produce any?

I owned a 2014 Prius v and it was a great hybrid, I then got a 2015 Sienna and it was a rattlebox old school ICE that got 15 MPG hauling kids around town. By 2015 the Sienna should have been a Hybrid or a PHEV, at least they finally caught up on that one now. Shoot, even Chrysler beat them to the punch on that!

So sorry if I feel this is just a smoke screen from Toyota, otherwise I would feel better about them.

rav 4 prime isnt fantastic.. its plagued with problems and very expensive

 

[kenchills]

While I think Toyota makes good points about battery production capabilities keeping up with BEV production and having better use in hybrids, they aren't walking the walk. Why isn't every car they produce a hybrid by now? Why did they design a fantastic PHEV with the RAV4 Prime and then barely produce any?

I owned a 2014 Prius v and it was a great hybrid, I then got a 2015 Sienna and it was a rattlebox old school ICE that got 15 MPG hauling kids around town. By 2015 the Sienna should have been a Hybrid or a PHEV, at least they finally caught up on that one now. Shoot, even Chrysler beat them to the punch on that!

So sorry if I feel this is just a smoke screen from Toyota, otherwise I would feel better about them.

This is kind of how I feel about Toyota. If they were really serious about their talk of reducing emissions using their hybrid technology, there would be a PHEV version of every single model that Toyota makes. You don't see that.

 

[Atlant]

It's not really carbon neutral in the sense of green house gasses in the air then, is it? It's still taking carbon that was in the ground and burning it, just with more steps. I thought the point of what Porche is doing is that if they pull X tons of CO2 from the air to create fuel that puts X (plus a little) tons of CO2 back into the air, that cycle isn't making things appreciably worse, and reduces the impact of all the existing cars on the road. Refining plastics into fuel to burn is more a step sideways.

Regardless, it's very likely a step that will be taken seeing as how we're unlikely to stop producing plastic resins and converting used plastics to fuel could be very profitable for energy companies that might otherwise be driven out of business.

 

[Atlant]

While I think Toyota makes good points about battery production capabilities keeping up with BEV production and having better use in hybrids, they aren't walking the walk. Why isn't every car they produce a hybrid by now? Why did they design a fantastic PHEV with the RAV4 Prime and then barely produce any?

I owned a 2014 Prius v and it was a great hybrid, I then got a 2015 Sienna and it was a rattlebox old school ICE that got 15 MPG hauling kids around town. By 2015 the Sienna should have been a Hybrid or a PHEV, at least they finally caught up on that one now. Shoot, even Chrysler beat them to the punch on that!

So sorry if I feel this is just a smoke screen from Toyota, otherwise I would feel better about them.

The Sienna is available as a hybrid now, isn't it?

 

[agzand]

I think even if you accept Toyota's argument, we are at a point where it makes sense to transition out of regular hybrids to PHEVs. Let's look at the numbers:

Tesla by itself makes about 1.8 million cars this year. They will use about 160 million kWh of batteries for those cars. That is more than what it takes to convert every NEW passenger car on the planet to a robust hybrid (1.5 kWh per car) and then some. And Tesla doesn't use more than 20 or 25 percent of automotive batteries.

So my conclusion is that we are beyond the point where regular hybrids would have been the best option, I think at this time for new car designs, PHEVs will be the most efficient use of batteries to reduce emissions.

 

[kenchills]

The Sienna is available as a hybrid now, isn't it?

I have been waiting forever for a Sienna PHEV, but Toyota refuses to come out with one (despite saying that it was designed with this possibility.)
Had to buy the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV instead. It's truly a nice van, but I don't trust it's long-term reliability.

I would also have purchased a Tacoma or Tundra PHEV if such a thing was available......but alas, nothing of the sort exists. Toyota continuously throws doubt on full EV's and says much more pollution could be saved by just going HEV/PHEV, but yet refuses to practice what it preaches. If they did, Toyota would have its whole lineup PHEV capable and available in meaningful numbers. You don't see that unfortunately. The PHEVs that it does make (Prius Prime, Rav4 Prime) are made in such laughably small numbers that you can't take Toyota's commitment to electrification seriously.

 

[Atlant]

I have been waiting forever for a Sienna PHEV, but Toyota refuses to come out with one (despite saying that it was designed with this possibility.)
Had to buy the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV instead. It's a nice van, but I don't trust it's long term reliability.

I would also have purchased a Tacoma or Tundra PHEV if such a thing was available. But alas, nothing of the sort is available. Toyota continuously throws doubt on full EV's and says much pollution could be saved by just going HEV/PHEV, but yet refuses to practice what it preaches. If they did, Toyota would have it's whole lineup PHEV capable. You don't see that unfortunately.

PHEVs would be nice, but as I've mentioned elsewhere, for many customers here in the Northeast, running on electricity is a lot more expensive than running on gasoline. (It certainly is for me.) I'm not sure Toyota is making any sort of tactical error here.

 

[tacomambo]

PHEVs would be nice, but as I've mentioned elsewhere, for many customers here in the Northeast, running on electricity is a lot more expensive than running on gasoline. (It certainly is for me.) I'm not sure Toyota is making any sort of tactical error here.

toyota will die a slow death just like the horse buggy folks that were holding out when the internal combustion revolution came about