[Atlant]

toyota will die a slow death just like the horse buggy folks that were holding out when the internal combustion revolution came about

You keep saying this (and variations on that theme) but it sounds more like a hope than an actual likelihood.

 

[Fahrer]

toyota will die a slow death just like the horse buggy folks that were holding out when the internal combustion revolution came about

There are more than 65 million cars sold in one year around the world. Only about 2 million of those are EVs. ICEs will dominate sales for decades. Companies like Toyota, VW and others have the portfolio of products and technologies to be successful in all regions of the world. Tesla does not as they only make EVs. Of course Tesla sees the whole world going electric as that is the only area where they can play.
Don't buy into Tesla's false projections. They have been inaccurate about the range of their cars, Autopilot capabilities, schedules of product introductions as well as capacity planning vs. demand.

By the way there are about 1.5 billion cars on the road in the world and virtually all of them burn gasoline or Diesel so refineries will be operating for a long, long time. This will not change so quickly. Toyota knows what they are doing.

 

[tacomambo]

There are more than 65 million cars sold in one year around the world. Only about 2 million of those are EVs. ICEs will dominate sales for decades. Companies like Toyota, VW and others have the portfolio of products and technologies to be successful in all regions of the world. Tesla does not as they only make EVs. Of course Tesla sees the whole world going electric as that is the only area where they can play.
Don't buy into Tesla's false projections. They have been inaccurate about the range of their cars, Autopilot capabilities, schedules of product introductions as well as capacity planning vs. demand.

By the way there are about 1.5 billion cars on the road in the world and virtually all of them burn gasoline or Diesel so refineries will be operating for a long, long time. This will not change so quickly. Toyota knows what they are doing.

its just the nature of progression. 120 years ago. there were more horse/buggy riders.. shift to now more ice than horse..

western world will shift from ice to ev and new tech (flying maybe ?)
california is putting the nail on new ice sale in 2035.. whatever cali does, the other 49 states will soon follow. eu is the same.. shifting away from dinosaur oil to something else.. change is hard to accept for some. toyota can and will make ice for much of the other part of the world without a high tech infrastructure, but their money money wont be coming from those region

 

[Ev1st]

california is putting the nail on new ice sale in 2035

When do governments stick to deadlines 😀

 

[agzand]

When do governments stick to deadlines 😀

It might not happen in US, but it will happen in most Asian countries (including China and India) and in Europe. They are sick of importing oil at volatile prices, and they have national interest in reducing dependency on oil. Every time there is an oil shock it wrecks their economy. So they will shift to EVs and Nuclear and renewables much sooner than US, which is relatively energy independent.

 

[bish79]

The Sienna is available as a hybrid now, isn't it?

Sienna is only available as a Hybrid now. Its a good step, but too little too late for me. Should have done it in the 2010-2015 timeframe at the latest. IF I were to go minivan again it will be an ID Buzz or a Pacifica PHEV.

 

[Fahrer]

its just the nature of progression. 120 years ago. there were more horse/buggy riders.. shift to now more ice than horse..

western world will shift from ice to ev and new tech (flying maybe ?)
california is putting the nail on new ice sale in 2035.. whatever cali does, the other 49 states will soon follow. eu is the same.. shifting away from dinosaur oil to something else.. change is hard to accept for some. toyota can and will make ice for much of the other part of the world without a high tech infrastructure, but their money money wont be coming from those region

It will be difficult for California to enforce those EV goals for the rural areas. Flying cars? People have enough trouble driving their cars on two dimensions. Imagine the craziness in three dimensions. Also if battery powered, they will make BEV cars look like ultra long range vehicles. Where are the floating cars we were promised 60 years ago?

In 2035 the vast majority of cars sold around the world will continue to be ICEs despite what we might want to see.

I agree that things will move faster in the EU (and possibly higher population density areas of China). The EU simply has a much better infrastructure than we have in the US and a stronger commitment to environmental goals.

Things generally don't change that fast. Airliners being built today are no faster than the ones they produced 60 years ago. They have longer range but they don't get you there any faster ( unless you had to stop before). There is one company that wants to make supersonic airliners but no engine maker will commit to wasting time on that.

A finale note of trivia. Crude oil is not dinosaur oil. The vast majority of crude is from ancient insects. There were vastly more tons of insects in that past than dinosaurs.

 

[TidingSStables]

It will be difficult for California to enforce those EV goals for the rural areas. Flying cars? People have enough trouble driving their cars on two dimensions. Imagine the craziness in three dimensions. Also if battery powered, they will make BEV cars look like ultra long range vehicles. Where are the floating cars we were promised 60 years ago?

In 2035 the vast majority of cars sold around the world will continue to be ICEs despite what we might want to see.

I agree that things will move faster in the EU (and possibly higher population density areas of China). The EU simply has a much better infrastructure than we have in the US and a stronger commitment to environmental goals.

Things generally don't change that fast. Airliners being built today are no faster than the ones they produced 60 years ago. They have longer range but they don't get you there any faster ( unless you had to stop before). There is one company that wants to make supersonic airliners but no engine maker will commit to wasting time on that.

A finale note of trivia. Crude oil is not dinosaur oil. The vast majority of crude is from ancient insects. There were vastly more tons of insects in that past than dinosaurs.

“It means nearly one in five new cars.”

California: Plug-In Car Sales Increased To Nearly 350,000 In 2022

Plug-in electric car sales in California noticeably increased in 2022, reaching new record levels - both in terms of volume and market share.

insideevs.com

 

[TidingSStables]

By the way there are about 1.5 billion cars on the road in the world and virtually all of them burn gasoline or Diesel so refineries will be operating for a long, long time. This will not change so quickly. Toyota knows what they are doing.

Mr. Toyoda doesn’t appear so.

Toyota cracks amid electric vehicle movement, CEO replaced by Lexus chief

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda, who has been leading the company since the global financial crisis, is stepping down amid mounting...

electrek.co

 

[tacomambo]

It will be difficult for California to enforce those EV goals for the rural areas. Flying cars? People have enough trouble driving their cars on two dimensions. Imagine the craziness in three dimensions. Also if battery powered, they will make BEV cars look like ultra long range vehicles. Where are the floating cars we were promised 60 years ago?

In 2035 the vast majority of cars sold around the world will continue to be ICEs despite what we might want to see.

I agree that things will move faster in the EU (and possibly higher population density areas of China). The EU simply has a much better infrastructure than we have in the US and a stronger commitment to environmental goals.

Things generally don't change that fast. Airliners being built today are no faster than the ones they produced 60 years ago. They have longer range but they don't get you there any faster ( unless you had to stop before). There is one company that wants to make supersonic airliners but no engine maker will commit to wasting time on that.

A finale note of trivia. Crude oil is not dinosaur oil. The vast majority of crude is from ancient insects. There were vastly more tons of insects in that past than dinosaurs.

what do you mean its hard to enforce? manufacturer can't just smuggle ice cars into california and sell them as brand new cars. i can see them using shell companies to buy new cars from other states then import into cali and resell as used or certified, but legally they can't sell brand new ice beginning 2035.

 

[Fahrer]

what do you mean its hard to enforce? manufacturer can't just smuggle ice cars into california and sell them as brand new cars. i can see them using shell companies to buy new cars from other states then import into cali and resell as used or certified, but legally they can't sell brand new ice beginning 2035.

Easy. Go to another state. Buy the car. Drive it home.

 

[Fahrer]

“It means nearly one in five new cars.”

California: Plug-In Car Sales Increased To Nearly 350,000 In 2022

Plug-in electric car sales in California noticeably increased in 2022, reaching new record levels - both in terms of volume and market share.

insideevs.com

In California, not the world.

 

[Atlant]

Easy. Go to another state. Buy the car. Drive it home.

In what state will you register the vehicle?

 

[Huey52]

In California, not the world.

True in world-scope. But as one in 7 Americans is Californian significant impact.

 

[Dougie01]

Mazda CEO echoes similar viewpoint. Honda doubles down on hydrogen fuel cells.

 

[Huey52]

Mazda CEO echoes similar viewpoint. Honda doubles down on hydrogen fuel cells.

I used to be more enamored with the potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However thus far Toyota Mirai for one is having their own refueling issues (socket-plug freezing) as well as a general lack of supporting H infrastructure. And of course it uses some oxygen from the air mixed with the onboard hydrogen. But one day, just as early BEV's (and early ICE), greater reliability and support.

 

[Fahrer]

In what state will you register the vehicle?

My understanding is that the proposal is to ban the sale of ICEs. Would it also be illegal own an ICE powered vehicle? Would folks be forced to get rid of those ICEs dominating the CA fleet or not be able re-register them?

Outside the major metropolitan areas I think this would be unworkable over the next 10 or so years.

So, if someone from AZ moves to CA they cannot bring their car with them?

OK, I just found the answer from Gov. Newsom's announcement.......

"The executive order will not prevent Californians from owning gasoline-powered cars or selling them on the used car market."

All this will do is damage the CA car dealers. So yes, if you live in CA, go out of state, buy whatever new ICE car you want and bring it home to CA. Folks buy cars from other states often.

Governor Newsom Announces California Will Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars & Drastically Reduce Demand for Fossil Fuel in California’s Fight Against Climate Change | California Governor

Executive order directs state to require that, by 2035, all new cars and passenger trucks sold in California be zero-emission vehicles Transportation currently accounts for more than 50 percent of…

www.gov.ca.gov

 

[TidingSStables]

There are more than 65 million cars sold in one year around the world. Only about 2 million of those are EVs. ICEs will dominate sales for decades. Companies like Toyota, VW and others have the portfolio of products and technologies to be successful in all regions of the world. Tesla does not as they only make EVs. Of course Tesla sees the whole world going electric as that is the only area where they can play.
Don't buy into Tesla's false projections. They have been inaccurate about the range of their cars, Autopilot capabilities, schedules of product introductions as well as capacity planning vs. demand.

By the way there are about 1.5 billion cars on the road in the world and virtually all of them burn gasoline or Diesel so refineries will be operating for a long, long time. This will not change so quickly. Toyota knows what they are doing.

China sold 5.67 million EVs and plug-ins in 2022, the China Passenger Car Association said Tuesday, as state subsidies and high oil prices led buyers to switch from gas-guzzling models.

China’s EV Sales Broke Record in 2022 as Overall Auto Market Stalled

Rising retail demand for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles boosted the auto market as traditional-car sales slipped 13%.

www.wsj.com

My understanding is that the proposal is to ban the sale of ICEs. Would it also be illegal own an ICE powered vehicle? Would folks be forced to get rid of those ICEs dominating the CA fleet or not be able re-register them?

Outside the major metropolitan areas I think this would be unworkable over the next 10 or so years.

So, if someone from AZ moves to CA they cannot bring their car with them?

OK, I just found the answer from Gov. Newsom's announcement.......

"The executive order will not prevent Californians from owning gasoline-powered cars or selling them on the used car market."

All this will do is damage the CA car dealers. So yes, if you live in CA, go out of state, buy whatever new ICE car you want and bring it home to CA. Folks buy cars from other states often.

Governor Newsom Announces California Will Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars & Drastically Reduce Demand for Fossil Fuel in California’s Fight Against Climate Change | California Governor

Executive order directs state to require that, by 2035, all new cars and passenger trucks sold in California be zero-emission vehicles Transportation currently accounts for more than 50 percent of…

www.gov.ca.gov

As for California which is the bulk of the US population, influence and economy;

They will eventually close loop holes for the new car use car exploit since it’s harder to tax.

There’s also a proposal if not already passed to not allow new gas stations to open up. Existing ones who own the land make lots of money converting to Walgreens, CVS,Starbucks or a drive thru.

It’s also very difficult to impossible to open a car dealership in California since it’s family mafia run. Those car dealers are better turned to mixed use residential properties since there is a shortage in California for the next 30+ years.

 

[TidingSStables]

I used to be more enamored with the potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However thus far Toyota Mirai for one is having their own refueling issues (socket-plug freezing) as well as a general lack of supporting H infrastructure. And of course it uses some oxygen from the air mixed with the onboard hydrogen. But one day, just as early BEV's (and early ICE), greater reliability and support.

The cost for the hydrogen station is from 2 to 3 million. Considering how little Mirais, Hondas and Hyundais abandoned project has been sold, either the franchise or private mom and pops shop will have to make a huge investment which won’t pencil out for 50+ years or just get a low risk low cost level 3 stall that is only 20 to 30k and solar will hedge the costs much quicker. You can even be almost solely off 3rd party costs with solar electricity vs paying big oils constant fluctuations.

 

[Fahrer]

China sold 5.67 million EVs and plug-ins in 2022, the China Passenger Car Association said Tuesday, as state subsidies and high oil prices led buyers to switch from gas-guzzling models.

China’s EV Sales Broke Record in 2022 as Overall Auto Market Stalled

Rising retail demand for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles boosted the auto market as traditional-car sales slipped 13%.

www.wsj.com

As for California which is the bulk of the US population, influence and economy;

They will eventually close loop holes for the new car use car exploit since it’s harder to tax.

There’s also a proposal if not already passed to not allow new gas stations to open up. Existing ones who own the land make lots of money converting to Walgreens, CVS,Starbucks or a drive thru.

It’s also very difficult to impossible to open a car dealership in California since it’s family mafia run. Those car dealers are better turned to mixed use residential properties since there is a shortage in California for the next 30+ years.

Let's see. So 5.6 million EV and plug-ins were sold in China last year ( what % of those burn gas?) out of 26.86 million cars = ~20%. That is significant.

Californians are the bulk of the US population? Really? There are about 39 million Californians and about 332 million US citizens ( <12%)! Here is a fun fact for you. About 10% of the US population lives within a 2 hour drive of Manhattan, NY ( the financial capitol of the US). This kind of puts things in perspective.

I am curious on where you get your information.

I am not sure I understand the point about the car dealers.