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Discussion Starter #1
This is a huge milestone for Tesla.

The contrast to legacy carmakers continues. While I’ll most likely end up with an ID.4, I’m a Long term investor in Tesla and have huge admiration for what they’ve achieved and their vision. However Their cars just don’t do it for me personally and I’ll take the id4 over the model y any day unless the y suddenly ramps up its range and lowers its price substantially and even then I’d still like the Id4’s styling and features over the Y. But I still wonder how companies like VW and others will do long term. VW has the most debt of any carmaker for example right now.


Tesla on the other hand is showing increased profits quarter by quarter, reaching economies of scale, expanding and ramping up production across the world, becoming more and more vertically integrated and achieving its goals of innovative new in vehicle software and monetizing the software revenue stream, and innovating on battery and range. They seem to have every angle covered.

Can legacy automakers even compete with Tesla and survive?
 

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ID.4 1st Dusk Blue
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I'm right with you, but don't own TSLA, at least not directly. A few contrarian points:
  • There cannot be just Teslas on the roads of the world. Their one size fits all approach leaves a lot of room for other manufacturers.
  • Maybe many legacy automakers won't make it, especially if their electrification and R+D efforts continue to be as tepid as they are now. But there are other young companies in the wings. I find Rivian to be a very compelling brand, for example.
  • I believe there will be a tipping point quite soon, where customer demand and regulatory pressure combine to create huge pressure on the market to deliver EVs. All manufacturers will scramble to meet that demand, including Tesla.
One thing is for certain: The automotive market will be in a huge transition over the next few years, and what we took for granted for decades will be all different then. For the better, overall.
 

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As both a Model 3 & TSLA owner, I am very happy with both the vehicle and the company performance. Tesla has a huge advantage over other manufacturers when it comes to their motor and battery technologies. Considering the Model Y & ID.4 have a very similar battery size, the Model Y gets 30% more range than the ID.4 - that is a tough gap to make up.

My biggest gripe is their Mission Statement - Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. If that was truly the case, they would license their technology to other manufacturers to get as many EVs out there as possible.
 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
There cannot be just Teslas on the roads of the world. Their one size fits all approach leaves a lot of room for other manufacturers.
I agree, I never made the case the Tesla would be the only manufacturer around. But if you take cell phones as an example, prior to the iPhone, the biggest cell phone companies weren't Apple or Google. Apple changed the game and put the traditional companies ( like Nokia, Motorola and others ) on back footing from which they've never recovered. Google managed to get a foot in the door at the right time to gain market share. Newer EV's are similar disruptor in technology.

I do think there will many manufacturers down the line with Tesla taking the largest share for some time to come. The question is whether the traditional industry will survive or whether newer disruptors ( like NIO and others ) will take over. Toyota is approaching EV's wrong. Nissan and VW seem to have woken up and are getting into the game and I'd think they will make it based on current demand but their debt and ICE investments are a potential liability. BMW I'm not sure for example, since it's building EV's on its ICE platform and seems to be reluctant to let go of legacy although they just announced a new platform that won't be out until 2022 or 2025. In addition, the dealer model may just disappear as people realize there is a much easier way to get cars and service.

Cost is another issue - if VW didn't have fed credits they would likely have a much harder time against Tesla. Tesla's costs of manufacturing are going down faster than they are for the other players.

I'm not saying I'd bet against the traditional companies, but I think that they are in some danger.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
As both a Model 3 & TSLA owner, I am very happy with both the vehicle and the company performance. Tesla has a huge advantage over other manufacturers when it comes to their motor and battery technologies. Considering the Model Y & ID.4 have a very similar battery size, the Model Y gets 30% more range than the ID.4 - that is a tough gap to make up.

My biggest gripe is their Mission Statement - Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. If that was truly the case, they would license their technology to other manufacturers to get as many EVs out there as possible.
Tesla has said that they are open to licensing. Other companies have not fully taken up their offer.

 

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Tesla has said that they are open to licensing. Other companies have not fully taken up their offer.

Elon has made the same statement many times in the past, it would be great to believe everything Elon has ever stated. Their openness to licensing come with many restrictions - they are not really interested in a true partnership.
 
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