Volkswagen ID Forum banner

1 - 14 of 14 Posts

·
Registered User
Joined
·
138 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
This is an interesting data point for those of us concerned about the rapid depreciation of EV's. Inside EV's had just released a piece reporting on 3-yr depreciation (2017-2020) of EV's in the UK. Pertinent data points:
VW e-Golf 25%
Tesla's 26% to 35%
BMW i3 41.5%
Leaf 50%
The data for the bottom 3 are pretty consistent with what has been seen in the US for those models. I think there have been too few e-Golf's to have meaningful data for the US

This is potentially good news for purchasers of the ID.4, as it seems in the UK there has been a halo effect from VW. The I3 did not benefit from this halo because the I3 was grossly overpriced from the beginning, as reflected in the high residuals BMW laid on for I3 leases and it's short range. The Leaf suffered from the short range of 2017 models and the passive-cooled battery problems.

Take heart--purchase of an ID.4 may turn out to be a smart financial decision, as contrasted to earlier opinions I have expressed.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
44 Posts
This is an interesting data point for those of us concerned about the rapid depreciation of EV's. Inside EV's had just released a piece reporting on 3-yr depreciation (2017-2020) of EV's in the UK. Pertinent data points:
VW e-Golf 25%
Tesla's 26% to 35%
BMW i3 41.5%
Leaf 50%
The data for the bottom 3 are pretty consistent with what has been seen in the US for those models. I think there have been too few e-Golf's to have meaningful data for the US

This is potentially good news for purchasers of the ID.4, as it seems in the UK there has been a halo effect from VW. The I3 did not benefit from this halo because the I3 was grossly overpriced from the beginning, as reflected in the high residuals BMW laid on for I3 leases and it's short range. The Leaf suffered from the short range of 2017 models and the passive-cooled battery problems.

Take heart--purchase of an ID.4 may turn out to be a smart financial decision, as contrasted to earlier opinions I have expressed.
It would be nice if it comes to pass. I shall remain a skeptic until I see some resales in the US. I am also in no hurry to purchase so time is on my side.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
150 Posts
Martyn Lee EV News Daily made it sound like his old Zoe EV sold for a much as he bought it for. So the UK may be different then in the US.
 

·
Registered User
2021 ID.4 1st Edition (on order), 2012 CC Sport, 1986 Golf (former), 1967 Beetle (former)
Joined
·
332 Posts
A 2017 Golf GTI SE has about 30% depreciation in the US. I think that would be aggressive for an ID.4 in an EV segment that will mature about the same time the first one's roll off leases. In my mind, 40% is a conservative estimate.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
44 Posts
A 2017 Golf GTI SE has about 30% depreciation in the US. I think that would be aggressive for an ID.4 in an EV segment that will mature about the same time the first one's roll off leases. In my mind, 40% is a conservative estimate.
Try 60%, Don't forget that there will probably be SS batteries in 3 years. Smaller, safer and a lot better range. Future technology is not a friend of todays EV's.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
2 Posts
I've been shocked at the resale value numbers I'm getting on my two 2017 e-Golfs. The residual on both is $11,000, with NADA and KBB saying retail and private party values between $18,000 and $20,000. Even trade in value is around $15,000 to $16,000. That's just insane to me but I'm super glad.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
138 Posts
Discussion Starter #7
@JTL That's the big imponderable. What will a doubling of the EV range (that's been the pattern over the last few years) in 3 years do to resale? That's what SS batteries will do. For my use case, there is no difference between 250 miles and 500 miles because the ID.4 will be a local grocery getter. IF a 500 mile ID.4 is the same price in 3 years as a 250 mile ID.4 in April, will 30% depreciation still hold? Not impossible that the cost of a double-size SS battery pack will be more or less the same as today's Li-ion. In 3 years, BMW doubled the range of the i3 without increasing the price. The decreasing cost trend per KWH of batteries says battery pack costs will stay the same while capacity increases. Technically, some of the latest info I have seen is that some types of SS batteries can be fabricated on existing cylindrical cell machinery with cheaper raw materials. Anyone want to take bets that Tesla will be trying this out in their experimental battery manufacturing facility in Freemont? Will there be enough people with a use case like mine that will be willing/need to take a 3-yr-old 250 mi range ID.4 at only a 30% discount? OR, would I even want to sell at 3 years so I don't care ?

If there is anything I have learned, it's that early adopters lose. If you are doing an ID.4, it's mostly for reasons having nothing to do with good financial decision-making. I bought the first Sony CD player for $400 when I could have bought a turntable or cassette player for $100. IMO, it was head and shoulders better than either; but in 3 years, it's replacement cost $100. The smart money waited 3 years, but had inferior audio and bought obsolete records or tapes all that time. "You make your choice and you pay your money".
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
138 Posts
Discussion Starter #8
It could be that the biggest threat to 2021 ID.4 resale is a $35K 2022 ID.4 from TN. That will be the competition for a used ID.4. @His_Stigness reports resale on his e-Golf along the lines of the UK report. Very good news, but at $20K, the competition for used EV's is early Bolt's, early BMW i3's, and early Leaf's. No mystery at all that the e-Golf is faring very well in this company. How will it do against a cheaper, new ID.4? With the reduction in battery pack costs, I could even see a base ID.4 with a 66 KWH pack at $30K MSRP in 2022.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
44 Posts
@JTL That's the big imponderable. What will a doubling of the EV range (that's been the pattern over the last few years) in 3 years do to resale? That's what SS batteries will do. For my use case, there is no difference between 250 miles and 500 miles because the ID.4 will be a local grocery getter. IF a 500 mile ID.4 is the same price in 3 years as a 250 mile ID.4 in April, will 30% depreciation still hold? Not impossible that the cost of a double-size SS battery pack will be more or less the same as today's Li-ion. In 3 years, BMW doubled the range of the i3 without increasing the price. The decreasing cost trend per KWH of batteries says battery pack costs will stay the same while capacity increases. Technically, some of the latest info I have seen is that some types of SS batteries can be fabricated on existing cylindrical cell machinery with cheaper raw materials. Anyone want to take bets that Tesla will be trying this out in their experimental battery manufacturing facility in Freemont? Will there be enough people with a use case like mine that will be willing/need to take a 3-yr-old 250 mi range ID.4 at only a 30% discount? OR, would I even want to sell at 3 years so I don't care ?

If there is anything I have learned, it's that early adopters lose. If you are doing an ID.4, it's mostly for reasons having nothing to do with good financial decision-making. I bought the first Sony CD player for $400 when I could have bought a turntable or cassette player for $100. IMO, it was head and shoulders better than either; but in 3 years, it's replacement cost $100. The smart money waited 3 years, but had inferior audio and bought obsolete records or tapes all that time. "You make your choice and you pay your money".
I once bought a Betamax if you remember that POS. I paid a $1000 and within a year it was worth zero.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
138 Posts
Discussion Starter #10
I once bought a Betamax if you remember that POS. I paid a $1000 and within a year it was worth zero.
I had one too. The technically inferior VHS won the format wars for being either: a) first to 2 hr recording time, or, b) Porn selected it as their format of choice. Perfect example of how being an early adopter does not work out well. GE became much more profitable than Westinghouse because they made an art of being second-to-market for new products with the winning technology, while Westinghouse was out breaking new ground, but not all were winners. I would argue that Tesla became the EV winner in the eyes of the US because Elon initially gave away free charging with the Model S, and built a lot of charging stations in California. Meanwhile Ludicrous mode made him a media darling. But for the availability of tax credits, a rational buyer would wait for 3 years before jumping on the EV bandwagon. IMO, the most rational thing to do is wait and see what pops up and then buy the best one in the final quarter before it's tax credits phase out. And the tax credits have become a moving target with Biden's election--will they be extended and under what conditions? I can predict with confidence that the best Tesla's will come from the new TX plant because it will have all the new manufacturing technology, latest tech in the battery packs, and a new state of the art paint shop--and it might even have tax credits restored.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
163 Posts
I once bought a Betamax if you remember that POS. I paid a $1000 and within a year it was worth zero.
I had one too.
I have you both beat... I had a Laser Disc player! Nothing like playing a CD the size of a thick LP record that couldn't even last an entire movie and would need to be flipped over half way through. The thing broke right after the warranty expired, spent $500 to fix it and then broke again a few months later.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
138 Posts
Discussion Starter #12
@TT97. You win. It was useless after a year. My CD player was still going after 5 years. Of course, that was when Sony was still a hardware company and before it became a media company. Back then, they made very good hardware. Betcha there are still operable "Walkman" players.
 

·
Registered User
Joined
·
25 Posts
It could be that the biggest threat to 2021 ID.4 resale is a $35K 2022 ID.4 from TN.
Will Tennessee build the ID.4 Pro AWD? Will it be only RWD? I can't seem to find info on this. I'm leaning towards leasing. That way, in three years, I'll know for sure what version of the ID.4 will be built in Tennessee.
 

·
Registered User
2021 ID.4 1st Edition (on order), 2012 CC Sport, 1986 Golf (former), 1967 Beetle (former)
Joined
·
332 Posts
Will Tennessee build the ID.4 Pro AWD? Will it be only RWD? I can't seem to find info on this. I'm leaning towards leasing. That way, in three years, I'll know for sure what version of the ID.4 will be built in Tennessee.
Once production starts, Cattanooga will build all models for the North America markets.
 
1 - 14 of 14 Posts
Top