Well we know for sure that the car needs to be on 2.3 to flash to v3 software, based on a previous VW post (I believe from VW's Europe FB page?). We also know that a dealer visit is required for v3 because of a module or modules which are currently not OTA-updatable.
So with respect to your poll, does "OTA" include a dealer-provided update? And are you excluding the OTAs that already happened in certain geographic regions, just not on Mars, hell, or the N. American continent? (but perhaps in the middle east, I don't know...)