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Registered User
ID.4 Pro S AWD
764 Posts
It was a good video with good reasoning but I did have one major gripe (and it is the same gripe anytime I see an articles with "Tesla Killer" in it).

I do not think VW will have any issue finding 500,000 people per year to purchase an ID.4 (finding enough resources to build 500,000 battery packs per year is the harder part), however, those 500,000 will not come out of Tesla's sales. In the U.S. last year, 325,000 BEV/PHEVs were sold in a total automotive market of 17mm (less than 2% of the entire market). The top 4 SUVs sold (RAV4; CR-V; Rogue; Equinox) accounted for 1.5mm sales. For the most part, the ID.4 is not pulling away buyers of the Model Y, it is pulling away buyers of the RAV4 & CR-V (and the rest of the 98% of the market). The more legacy automakers jump in to the EV market, the more the general public becomes aware of EVs and the more the entire EV market siphons sales from ICE vehicles. For that reason, when VW talks about the ID.4, they talk about poaching sales away from the RAV4 & CR-V, not the MY.

Tesla last year had 60% of the 325,000 U.S. EV market. They would be perfectly happy having a 20% share of a 3.25mm EV market.
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