[Stu Ncal EV]

A few years ago the Leaf and other used ev’s shot up in value as the price of gas reached new highs. I suspect that the value of evs will track oil prices as people looking to stop the pain at the pump look to get any ev they can. Right now gas prices are low so EV prices are also low. Its just one of several factors of course.

 

[rockwelldr]

I also have a 21 AWD Pro S (albeit with more but still low miles) and I figure in the current state of the EV world, it will be close to fully depreciated (ie, with a market value close to $0) in another 3-4 years. I purchased mine, though. If you buy yours out, how many additional years do you expect to keep it? If it's not substantially more than 3-4 more, I think your TCO for leasing a new 2024 (or potentially a very discounted new 2023) vs buying used 2021 may be pretty close. Obviously, the applicability of new EV tax credit could be a substantial factor.

I leased a 2021 AWD Pro S in February 2022; I leased for 3 years because I thought there could be remarkable increases in range. I personally don't think that has happened except for very expensive EVs. I can live with the mileage limitation, having driven 1,000 to Santa Fe NM from Modesto CA, and back. Most of my driving has been locally,within 3 to 30 miles, up to 200, so the range hasn't been a problem for me. At this point, because I really like this vehicle (having been a Prius owner of a couple models since 2013), I think I will just buy it outright. Purchasing a new EV is not for me; I am 76, and I assume this vehicle will be performing well for 5 years at least. We will see. My hope is that the charging infrastructure will improve to allow long trips, if I want to go somewhere.

David

 

[fireboy92k]

I think the long-term viability of EV batteries is pretty well known at this point actually. Look at Tesla's. They aren't dying. 80%'ish percent at 10 years and 10k miles is still within warranty even (if it was under warranty still). How Is the Battery Degradation of the Tesla Model S After 10 Years on the Roads? - autoevolution

Leafs are the ones with bad batteries after a long time, but they were also small, passively cooled, and a different battery chemistry than the current ones.

 

[Nai3t]

Leafs are the ones with bad batteries...

Also worth noting people buy these used Leafs with degraded batteries ("they're cheap!") and use them as short range commuters. They have to get pretty low before they're deemed bad enough to send to the scrap pile.

 

[Aspen318]

Leased my 2021 Pro S AWD Gradient 28 months ago, primarily leased because of concerns about the technical advance curve (which hasn’t advanced appreciably). Took my car in for the door handle recall and they offered a “courtesy“ appraisal. It came back $17,500 and mind you I’m at 32K miles and the car is In perfect condition. Gas prices will remain low ramping up to November so it’s likely to keep depreciating like a rock. A PHEV or another Hybrid like my Maverick for me when I toss the FOB at VW at lease end.

 

[Atlant]

The longevity of EV batteries in general and for the ID.4 in particular is largely unknown at this point in time. Maybe I'm not reading enough EV forums but I'm generally surprised about how few battery failures are mentioned. (Degradation for sure but not total failures.) I seem to recall reading that EV battery recyclers are seeing less batteries than they anticipated. I get lots of questions about the replacement cost of EV batteries and usually suggest that my guess is that most EV's will never need a replacement battery. Time will tell.

In my area the price of used Teslas and Leafs that are outside of the 8 year warranty period are commonly for sale and the prices are not in the "little value" range.

When I think of all of the areas of the ID.4 that worry me, batteries really don't concern me much at all, at least if VW manages to wring the “infancy” failures out of our battery packs (which, in my car, three years later, they've been unable to do). But lithium battery packs with active temperature control are a pretty well-understood engineering topic and there's really not much reason why a good battery pack shouldn't be able to go hundreds of thousands of miles.

(Nissan Leaf battery packs fail early because Nissan didn't bother to provide active temperature management and it shows.)

 

[Atlant]

When I think of all of the areas of the ID.4 that worry me, batteries really don't concern me much at all, at least if VW manages to wring the “infancy” failures out of our battery packs (which, in my car, three years later, they've been unable to do). But lithium battery packs with active temperature control are a pretty well-understood engineering topic and there's really not much reason why a good battery pack shouldn't be able to go hundreds of thousands of miles.

(Nissan Leaf battery packs fail early because Nissan didn't bother to provide active temperature management and it shows.)

On the other hand, if my BEV actually ends up NEEDING an out-of-warranty full battery pack replacement, I'm junking that car. Decades of experience with cars and big expensive appliances at the or near the end of their service loves has probably finally taught me “when to quit”. In the past, I've had a tendency to throw another few thousands of good dollars into a now-bad investment.

 

[maggiSauce]

So if a battery fails, does the whole thing fail? I feel like a cell or two would fail and would compromise the range of the vehicle, but for many/most, that's probably not worth fixing.

If my range was compromised by 10% and a fix was $2,000? I think I'd just leave it and not bother. Car would still be fine in my eyes.

My point is, I don't think this is a "battery dead; replace or scrap car" scenario. I think it might be a "battery has a max of 90%; this is our second/commuter car now" scenario."

 

[Phoenix72]

So if a battery fails, does the whole thing fail? I feel like a cell or two would fail and would compromise the range of the vehicle, but for many/most, that's probably not worth fixing.

If my range was compromised by 10% and a fix was $2,000? I think I'd just leave it and not bother. Car would still be fine in my eyes.

My point is, I don't think this is a "battery dead; replace or scrap car" scenario. I think it might be a "battery has a max of 90%; this is our second/commuter car now" scenario."

That what is was thinking before purchased the car! However, I don't think that will be the car. Apparently went one of the cell goes bad (delta voltage over 2mV?), the whole module will have to be replaced. I also read that it might bricked the car if not taken care of. I think there was a member here had to replace module out of warranty and costs over $5k?

 

[lynnejohn]

When I think of all of the areas of the ID.4 that worry me, batteries really don't concern me much at all, at least if VW manages to wring the “infancy” failures out of our battery packs (which, in my car, three years later, they've been unable to do). But lithium battery packs with active temperature control are a pretty well-understood engineering topic and there's really not much reason why a good battery pack shouldn't be able to go hundreds of thousands of miles.

(Nissan Leaf battery packs fail early because Nissan didn't bother to provide active temperature management and it shows.)

I would def agree. You will lose capacity but total failure seems like a low risk. My worries center around the high cost of limited supply components(like motor controllers) and basically not having any resale value.

 

[fireboy92k]

I doubt the whole battery would fail. There are multiple modules inside the battery and those modules are made up of multiple cells. Technically someone who knew what they were doing could replace cells, but more likely it would be a module.

The biggest issue with the VW battery is the entire top is sealed with about 50 one time use screws, plus a variety of longer torque to yield bolts that all must be replaced when they are removed. So it’s quite a bit of labor. Plus the batteries are held to the bottom on a spread of thermal paste which must also be scraped and replaced when a module is removed. And then the battery has to be rebalanced electrically.

They just did it for my battery as part of the cell replacement. So I have no idea what the cost was since it was done under warranty. But figure 2 days of labor plus parts probably.

 

[Moe]

I doubt the whole battery would fail. There are multiple modules inside the battery and those modules are made up of multiple cells. Technically someone who knew what they were doing could replace cells, but more likely it would be a module.

The biggest issue with the VW battery is the entire top is sealed with about 50 one time use screws, plus a variety of longer torque to yield bolts that all must be replaced when they are removed. So it’s quite a bit of labor. Plus the batteries are held to the bottom on a spread of thermal paste which must also be scraped and replaced when a module is removed. And then the battery has to be rebalanced electrically.

They just did it for my battery as part of the cell replacement. So I have no idea what the cost was since it was done under warranty. But figure 2 days of labor plus parts probably.

That’s why I’d expect non-dealer R&R with whole batteries remanufactured at a central location…and a helluva core charge.

 

[Atlant]

So if a battery fails, does the whole thing fail? I feel like a cell or two would fail and would compromise the range of the vehicle, but for many/most, that's probably not worth fixing.

If my range was compromised by 10% and a fix was $2,000? I think I'd just leave it and not bother. Car would still be fine in my eyes.

My point is, I don't think this is a "battery dead; replace or scrap car" scenario. I think it might be a "battery has a max of 90%; this is our second/commuter car now" scenario."

I'm not sure who you're addressing, but I'll reply.

Me? I bought my ID.4 knowing it would have enough battery capacity when charged to 80% for me to do about 3.5 days of my commute in the worst-case conditions (Winter with me driving fast).

If that battery degrades a reasonable amount (say to 70% of the original capacity at ten years out), it will still have the battery capacity to manage at least 2.5 round trips. I will consider this perfectly acceptable.

But if the battery were to suffer a catastrophic, out-of-warranty failure such that the car can't be used or had (say) 20% battery capacity? I'd call the junkers that day and have the car hauled away without a second thought. I'd NEVER consider repairing the battery or even accepting a reasonably-priced battery swap.

 

[artgpo]

Our former 2021 ID.4 Pro S Gradient was traded in May, 2023 with about 30,000+ miles. I was offered $29,000 for it in trade for a 2023 KIA EV 6 GT-Line RWD. Had we have kept the ID.4 until lease end at the end of April, 2024, we would have had about 54,000 miles (leased @ 18,000 x 3 years). Last week, just for grins I had the car valued and was offered $14,000+ in trade. The lease residual was $20,200. I would never have bought the ID.4 for its residual, The car was pristine and garage kept the entire two years we had it. The ID.4 had at least five recalls at the time we traded it and had not yet had the major software update. I have never gotten over the fact that VW leased to me a vehicle still in beta test mode. The EV 6 was in its second year of production but has, until this week, not one recall. The EV 6 is charged about every third day on a 240V EVSE @ 32 amps without a flaw. The 2021 ID.4 was a wonderful concept car but totally incomplete. It is difficult for me to trust VW ever again after they made me an uncompensated beta tester for a very flawed, incomplete car.

 

[Spin]

It is difficult for me to trust VW ever again after they made me an uncompensated beta tester for a very flawed, incomplete car.

As much as I hate to admit it, you are absolutely correct. Most, if not all of the problems were software related. These problems were mostly solved in 3.1. The bigger problem now is that certain replacement parts are not available in a timely manner.

 

[Moe]

As much as I hate to admit it, you are absolutely correct. Most, if not all of the problems were software related. These problems were mostly solved in 3.1. The bigger problem now is that certain replacement parts are not available in a timely manner.

I hope that member’s experiences here with 2024 and v4.x show us VW has finally learned how to code. OTOH, the inexcusable unavailability of parts for weeks and months may be a corporate culture problem VW doesn’t resolve.

 

[Soby]

I’m just here to say that I am shocked anyone has or is considering buying out a 2021 lease. That car can easily be scrap in a little over a year.

 

[BrianFellows]

I’m just here to say that I am shocked anyone has or is considering buying out a 2021 lease. That car can easily be scrap in a little over a year.

Every car could easily be scrap

I don’t see how the ID4 is any more likely than others

 

[Soby]

Every car could easily be scrap

I don’t see how the ID4 is any more likely than others

Because there are higher than average occurrences of 2021 models spontaneously getting crippled while driving. These situations have thus far been under warranty but the level of effort dealers have had to go to repair these have been more than anyone would ever pay out of warranty. As soon as your car is out of warranty, you are one voltage anomaly away from sitting in a crippled car that is too expensive to fix.

Search for the term “died” in this subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/VWiD4Owners/s/sGko1wE5qo

 

[stevemaller]

Better stop charging to 100%!

Good point! I know a little about batteries, and I think it's ok to charge to 100% if you're going to use it right away. But what you don't want to do is fast charge to 100% and just let it sit for a few days like that. We use ours every day, and I generally don't charge until we're under 50% unless we are doing a longer drive. So far after 31,000 miles our range is every bit as good as it was when it was new.