My strategy is to keep my '21 until the battery warranty is down to ~18 months and then sell it. I'll never hit the 100k mile battery warranty limit. That "feels" like the sweet spot.

 

We’ve got a 2021 all-wheel-drive 60,000 miles outside of a few software glitches. It’s been rocksolid. At 100% charge we get 240 miles. Keep it until it dies. And then if you like the car and it still sollid just haven’t changed the battery pack for 15 grand. You got a brand new car.

 

I plan to keep it until near 8 years and watch my battery health. If it makes it that long with little degradation I might keep it beyond the warranty since it is likely to keep going much longer and its value will be low by then. I will also keep watching to see if all the others here are having many battery problems near 8 years. And it will depend on if there are finally a breakthrough on new cars like solid state batteries that make me want a new one.

 

I was about to post these exact sentiments. If the battery is still relatively healthy just before the warranty expires then I will likely keep it as my townie. If it is degrading quickly or I start seeing a lot of other people having problems I will move on. In any case, by the time I hit 8 years - late 2030 - I am sure there will be some compelling SSB alternatives on the market.

 

Going to keep mine until I see something that I like better. Probably about 2 years from now. Waiting to see the next full redesign of the ID 4 plus a few months to see if the software and battery are stable. If so I'll compare it to the Ionic 5 of that time or any other make that allows CarPlay and has few problems talked about on its forum. Sun roofs or over sized wheels being negatives.

 

We have no plans to replace our 2022 ID.4 anytime soon. We really like the car. We kept our previous car for 14 years.
We only put 2700 mi/yr on our car.
The battery is in excellent condition.
The car has depreciated by 50% since we bought it less than 3 years ago. I believe that curve will start to flatten out.

 

We're mulling. We love our ID.4, and have had no problems other the minor irritant of (successful) recalls and Commodore-64-level software. But the lease runs out in February 26, and the known buyout outweighs the projected bluebook by about $5000. That being said, my wife has been unable to drive for the past eight months, and the odds are 50/50 that by February We will be just Me. And just Me doesn't need both a car and a 20-year-old pickup truck. Lots of interesting rumors on the horizon, including a skunkworks small Ford EV p/u coming in 2027. But in the current political environment, rumors are vaporous at best.

 

My 21 FE is a bit over 40k, six months shy of 5 years, and I have no plans to get rid of it. I don't care about depreciation. The best way to combat that is by owning it for a long as is practical. Even if I end up with a suspect battery some day down the road, the car will still have some resale value.

I don't even consider it to be a roll of the dice to hang on to it, some day every car will have its expensive failure. If I get rid of every car early because of "what if..." it'll cost me much more in the long run vs. just driving the car and not sweating it until the car indicates to me its time is up.

 

Only a commuter car? I have a 2021 with 51k miles on it. Drove it from Northern VA to Green BAY, WI. To Orlando. To Myrtle Beach. To Ocean City. To Western PA numerous times. Only a commuter car my ass.
Why do you think the battery will die? Its not a phone. ICE cars have components, more in fact, that die.
I plan on keeping mine another 50k miles and then see. As far as the worth of the car? Yea, its worth to me not to have to pollute , not have to go to the gas station and saving money on fuel. .

 

Mine is in the shop today for more software glitches. I see VW's software as a far greater liability than the batteries!

 

Not necessarily. I see the software as a given – it is what it is, but certainly doesn't sour with age. My worst software problems "self cured" before the first update (no explanation there), but as mediocre as it is, at least thank goodness it's been stable!

 

@Omar33 You have to disregard what you’ve paid and the depreciation as sunk costs. The 2021 ID.4 with 36,000 miles is likely to be worth less in the future than it is today. That, and the cost of repairs no longer covered by the expired bumper to bumper warranty, will be the cost of the additional miles you get out of it and those will be limited if you want to sell before it goes below one year of battery warranty remaining, which would be attractive to a buyer.

The upcoming comparably sized 2026 Toyota RAV4 will only be available as a hybrid or a plug-in hybrid with an improved 50 mile electric range. No more ICE-only. Given over half the RAV4s sold in the last year or so have been hybrids, I expect these will be big sellers for them.

 

One factor will be whether third party battery modules become available. Hybrids are obviously a different case because the batteries are comparatively small and use NiMH technology, but when I bought my Honda Insight in 2005 there were all kinds of stories about how the battery would need to be replaced in a few years and it was going to cost $15,000. The battery lasted until the COVID lockdown, and probably would have lasted longer if I had not just parked the car for a few months. But a third party replacement with more capacity cost $2300.

Maybe a similar thing with EV batteries will happen in a few years.

 

In the BMW i3 world, Chinese made aftermarket battery packs are coming online in the $5,000 to $6,000 range for a 40 kWh pack. For original 2014-2016 owners with 22 kWh batteries, this is a decent upgrade.

Giving the popularity of the ID.4 I imagine similar packs will be available once batteries start to reach end of life in larger numbers.

 

The only problem I would have with a Chinese made battery is I would no longer trust it enough to keep it in our attached garage.

 

Plan to keep it until it becomes undriveable.
While it might not have the coolest features long term might have better value because of the mechanical build quality.
As well hoping availability of used parts and battery modules might make it relatively cheaper to repair.

 

Perhaps aftermarket parts won’t be backorered with no ETA.

 

With any car (EV or ICE), if at the end of a lease or warranty, and it has been operating flawlessly or quite well, why not keep it and accept that down the road there will be some repairs? If it has issues that the dealer has never been able to fully straighten out? Dump it.

 

I'll be keeping it for now. North of the border there are really no deals to speak of so we'll sit tight until there is.
It's a nice comfy car with the quirks that everyone else is having but we like it and it serves its purpose.
Our Bolt is just over 4 years old and 130,000 km so it will be time to start watching for a replacement on that one before the ID.4 anyway.

 

That sounds like a good strategy.

 

We bought ours in Dec 2022 so coming up on 3 years but plan to keep it for at least another 3. The car drives great, has lots of cargo space and feels great for our needs (small family of 3). We purchased ours (not a lease) so if we keep it for about 6-8 years that basically puts us in about the $400/mo range which feels reasonable especially with when we bought it. Of course, if we had waited until September before the tax credit ended we would have been in a better financial position with the car but frankly we’re good waiting until around the end of the decade. There will be a lot of better vehicles than there already are.

 

My lease is done in 8 months, so I am open to any and all new EV the summer of 2026.

 

I doubt there is a current platform/brand that can be truly relied on to not go out of business, get software locked or suffer from parts shortages. Tesla might be the most reliable producer but I nearly vomited saying that.
I'm in it for for whatever the long haul is. This could be my last car of any kind and it's not worth making premature moves on other EV's. I also feel sick at the idea of going back to ICE.

 

Our 2022 is just about perfect in size, features, and capabilities. Will keep it until I'm no longer upright. All the common complaints many have listed on this forum and pretty minor in my mind. Even the fact that it only has 2 window switches, as that is all I want/need. My complaint is that it is way to easy to switch to "REAR" mode accidently! Leading me to think the front window is broken when it is the rear window that is being operated, and I have to look down to see that the switches are in "REAR" mode. Then I have to close the rear window, unselect "REAR", then operate the front window. YMMV.

 

Toyota just said they will launch SSB in 2027-8. And "Meanwhile, CATL and BYD, which are already dominating the global battery market, aim to introduce the new battery tech around 2027. " So that should be long enough for me by 2030 to know if their claims are true.

Toyota aims to launch the 'world's first' all-solid-state EV batteries

Toyota is doubling down on the “holy grail” of EV tech — all-solid-state batteries. Its first EV could arrive as...

electrek.co

 

I feel like I've already taken most of the depreciation hit, so I'm not looking to bail anytime soon. Hopefully I can limp along 'til ~2030 by which time I hope there is a solid secondary market for good EV's. EG: A quick look at Autotrader now shows some Lucid Air GT's with low miles (under 30k) for less than a new ID.4.

 

Thanks you all. Are we sure this car won't be worth 3,4,5k in another 4-5 years and closer to 100k miles? I personally just don't see who the buyer would be knowing a new pack is on the horizon and by EV terms it would be ancient tech.

 

VW is also building factories to introduce SSB by 2027:
PowerCo is currently building three battery cell factories in Germany, Spain and Canada with a total production volume of up to 200 GWh per year. Production is estimated to start in 2026-2027.

Volkswagen subsidiary PowerCo lands battery tech licensing deal

QuantumScape says its solid state battery technology can allow an EV to travel up to 500,000 kilometers (roughly 311,000 miles) without any noticeable loss of range.

www.wardsauto.com

Are we sure this car won't be worth 3,4,5k in another 4-5 years and closer to 100k miles? I personally just don't see who the buyer would be knowing a new pack is on the horizon and by EV terms it would be ancient tech.

Yes I am sure it won't go that low. But it does not matter what it depreciates to, since if its still the good EV I have now I will keep it and it will be great for all my uses. A new one will depreciate $5000 per year for the first 3 years as mine did, and then will barely depreciate at all by the 8 year point. So if you are worried about depreciation, the thing to do is not keep getting new ones, especially every 3 years.

 

If OEM ID.4 parts are currently sometimes backordered with no ETA, imagine what support will be like as VW gets closer to a replacement. A warranty isn’t much good if the dealer can’t get the parts. Third party supply, especially of recycled battery modules, might not materialize by then, especially for a low volume vehicle. At least we know one can be driven locally with one failed module.

 

Third party supply, especially of recycled battery modules, might not materialize by then, especially for a low volume vehicle.

Third party ID.4 battery replacement is already available now at 30 locations nationwide. And the price keeps getting cheaper:

VW ID4 8S 27V 6.85kWh 234Ah Battery Module | Greentec Auto

Powerful and stackable battery module for EVs for sale. Includes voltage sensing harness and all voltages are good. 12-month extendable warranty.

www.greentecauto.com

 

Before we purchased our new 2025 ID.4 last month, we had a 2012 Nissan Leaf that was achieving 25 miles to the charge, and were charging it for every trip. It's original battery was changed under warranty at 5 years. It was originally a 35k car and traded it in with 160,000 city miles for $500. We plan on keeping the ID.4 until it does the same, hopefully more than 13 years. Our only concern is being able to get parts for it.

 

I have a '21 ID4 with 36,000 miles. Its been great as a commuter car but I am starting to contemplate if it makes sense to sell while its worth something. Reason being I just don't know about repairability of battery packs and how strongly that influences resale value of aging EVs. In the event of a bad cell the best fix is to replace the whole pack. The approach of replacing a module is easier said than done perhaps because you'd have to find a module with similar age/miles/degradation. Sure we have a long battery warranty but they are just going to replace a module here and there and I'm not sure thats the long term fix. They would likely just drag me out till I fall off the warranty. Please correct me if any of this is not factual, I hope I can be corrected

I would personally stay far away from a used EV with a ton of miles for this reason. Maybe I should go back to Toyota hybrids that are bullet proof? People buy toyota/lexus hybrids even at 100k miles knowing full well these cars easily go the distance without throwing a ton of money.

I wouldn't count on a Toyota hybrid battery being bullet proof. Mine lasted exactly 105K miles and then had a bad cell requiring replacement. That said, I bought a second Toyota Camry hybrid in 2018 and it is still going strong with about 65K miles on it. Mileage is hard to beat with 42-45 mpg being the average in city driving and 50 mpg highway.

 

If you look at the news, with the drop of the IRS incentives a lot of the manufacturers are dropping prices like crazy. And Chinese car makers are looking to make inroads into Europe and the rest of the world. So any prediction on cars of today, whether ICE / Hybrid / or EV will probably be turned on it's head in 5 years.